Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Mikhail Kurakin

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247 0
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro is restoring

Current trend

After a rapid downward trend, the EUR/USD pair entered a wide sideways consolidation. At the beginning of last week, the price dropped to a strong support level of 1.1430, where it reversed and began to strengthen. The main growth catalyst was the decline in demand for the US currency due to the publication of negative releases on inflation, the labor market, retail sales, and major US indices, while positive data on industrial production released in EU.

Today, US Industrial Production data will be published, and FOMC Meeting Minutes release is expected tomorrow. At the end of the week, special attention should be paid to EU inflation statistics.

Support and resistance

In the short term, a significantly overbought dollar reacts sharply to negative releases in major sectors of the economy and is falling. If the upward momentum of the instrument maintains, the pair may rise to the key resistance levels and local highs of the last five months at the levels of 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1850.

On the daily chart, the technical indicators confirm a high probability of a reversal: the MACD volumes of short positions are decreasing, Bollinger bands are pointed sideways.

Resistance levels: 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1730, 1.1775, 1.1800, 1.1830.
Support levels: 1.1550, 1.1515, 1.1500, 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1300.

Trading tips

It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level with the targets at 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1850 and stop loss 1.1460.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the European session, the price of silver is growing but the downward trend is still relevant. A key support level is around 5/8 Murrey or 14.55. If the price consolidates below it, then the next target will be the level of 14.00.

The precious metals are under pressure of the Fed’s aggressive policy, which continues to raise interest rates and provides an increase in government bonds’ yield and makes these instruments attractive for investment. On the other hand, criticism of the regulators’ actions by Donald Trump may affect the global balance of power in the market, and as monetary policy changes, silver will increase again. Nevertheless, the US economy continues to grow, and many economists believe that there is no point in mitigating the policy. Thus, the published data on Industrial Production for September increased by +5.1%. Capacity Utilization decreased slightly to 78.1% against a forecast of 78.2%, which may be a short-term recession, which will reverse upwards again.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 22 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.
Resistance Levels: 14.74, 14.84.
Support levels: 14.55, 14.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.55 with the target at 14.00 and the stop loss at 14.74.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. USD/CHF: technical analysis

USD/CHF, D1

On the D1 chart, the pair is strengthening in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed upwards, and the price range expanded, indicating further growth of the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has entered the oversold area; a strong sell signal can be formed during 2-3 days.

USD/CHF, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument is testing the upper boundary of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally and the price range expanded, which serves as a basis for continuing uptrend. MACD histogram is in positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area; a sell signal can be formed during the day.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.9959, 1.0003, 1.0035, 1.0060.
Support levels: 0.9916, 0.9883, 0.9841, 0.9804, 0.9760, 0.9706.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.0030 and stop loss at 0.9915. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions may be opened below 0.9910 with target at 0.9840 and stop loss at 0.9940. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR fell significantly against USD, renewing its lows since October 10, due to the general strengthening of USD after strict Fed’s statements on further interest rate growth. USD was additionally supported by a sharp decline in the Chinese yuan, which continues today due to poor data on China's Q3 GDP.

EUR is under pressure of uncertain Brexit prospects and the tightening of the situation around the Italian budget for the next year. Yesterday, investors were focused on the summit of EU leaders in Brussels. There were no new proposals to solve the Irish border problem, and an agreement with the UK was not concluded. However, officials are developing a new mechanism to allow the UK to leave the EU as painlessly as possible. The idea is to extend the negotiations on the Irish border for a certain period after the end of the Brexit procedure itself.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately reduced. The price range is narrowing, letting the "bears" renew local lows. MACD is decreasing, keeping a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls, however, is in close proximity to zero values, which reflects that EUR is oversold in the super short term.

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1.1460, 1.1500, 1.1522, 1.1547.
Support levels: 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1352.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a reversal near the current support levels and the breakout of 1.1460–1.1470 with the target of 1.1580 or 1.1600. Stop loss is 1.1430. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1430 with the target at 1.1352. Stop loss is 1.1460–1.1470. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: technical analysis

Brent Crude Oil, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument returned to growth after a correction, and it is now trading between the middle line and the bottom border of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive region, its volumes are reduced, the signal line is directed downwards. Stochastic could not consolidate in the oversold zone and is currently in the neutral zone, moving horizontally.

Brent Crude Oil, H4

On the 4-hour chart, there is a correction of the downward movement to the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping the signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 81.69, 83.05, 84.47, 85.79, 87.21.
Support levels: 80.11, 78.88, 78.14, 77.20.

Trading tips

In the short term, it is better to open short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 79.00 and stop loss 79.70. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 82.20 with the target at 83.00. Stop loss is 81.90. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument grows towards the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price range is widened, which reflects a possibility of further upward movement development. MACD histogram is in the positive area, the signal line crosses the zero line and the body of the histogram upwards, forming a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the signal line of the oscillator is directed downwards.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument broke through the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price is now growing. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are minimal, the indicator signal line moves horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 1235.54, 1245.43, 1257.05, 1267.00.
The levels of support: 1228.52, 1222.71, 1217.95, 1214.00, 1207.60, 1205.05, 1198.69, 1192.75, 1182.79.

Trading tips

In the short term, long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1245.00 and stop loss 1230.00.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1214.00 with the target at 1207.50. Stop loss is 1218.00.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

GBP remains under pressure after the EU summit in Brussels ended in vain.

This week, British Prime Minister Theresa May meets members of parliament to explain the future strategy. On Monday, she said that the agreement with the EU was 95% confirmed; the Irish border remains an issue. A new meeting will be held tonight with members of the Conservative Party, some of whom want to change the prime minister.

There is also no unity inside the British cabinet. According to Bloomberg, seven officials headed by Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt disagree with the proposal to leave the UK indefinitely within the EU customs rules. Deputy Prime Minister David Lidington warned that a “divorce” without a deal could lead to a serious reduction in transit through the Eurotunnel, and Transport Minister Chris Grayling even offered to charter ships to supply Britain by sea. Anyway, the issue should be resolved by the end of November, otherwise, there would not be enough time for its ratification.

Support and resistance

The price has fallen below 1.2940 (Murrey [4/8]) and may continue to decline to 1.2878 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2817 (Murrey [2/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3000 (Murrey [5/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands); after breaking it out, growth targets will be 1.3061 (Murrey [5/8]) and 1.3122 (Murrey [6/8]). However, the decline seems more probable, since Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

Support levels: 1.2878, 1.2817.
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3061, 1.3122.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.2920 with targets at 1.2878, 1.2817 and stop loss at 1.1580.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.3000 with targets at 1.3061, 1.3122 and stop loss at 1.2950.

Implementation period: 3-4 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair was corrected to the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]). On Wednesday, the European currency was under pressure from the results of the ECB meeting. The rates remained the same: the key one – at the level of 0.0%, and the deposit one – at the level of -0.4%. The rhetoric of the regulator has not changed. The accompanying statement noted that officials expect rates to increase no earlier than the end of the summer of 2019, and purchases of bonds in the amount of 15 billion euros will continue until December. During the press conference, ECB Head Mario Draghi noted that the increase in protectionism and the volatility of the financial market are important risks for the recovery of the Eurozone. Currently the European economy is weakening due to the uncertainty with Brexit, the new Italian budget and the US-China trade war. However, the ECB's policy helps support domestic demand and private consumption. Current regulatory measures are still needed to ensure a steady increase in inflation to a target level of 2.0%.

Today the data on US GDP for the third quarter will be published. The figure may decline from 4.2% to 3.3%, which may slow down the downward trend.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]), the breakdown of which may cause a fall to the levels of 1.1291 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.1230 (Murray [0/8]). A breakout of the level of 1.1413 (Murray [3/8]) may cause an upward correction to the levels of 1.1474 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger bands) and 1.1535 (Murray [5/8]). However, the decline looks more likely, as the Bollinger and Stochastic are directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone.

Support Levels: 1.1352, 1.1291, 1.1230.
Resistance Levels: 1.1413, 1.1474, 1.1535.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at 1.1340 with targets at 1.1291, 1.1230 and a stop loss at 1.1390.
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 1.1413 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1535 and a stop loss in the region of 1.1380.

Implementation of scenarios: 4-5 days.
 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning up, and on the level with the EMA130, which is horizontal. The RSI is testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1212.0 (September highs), 1195.0 (local lows), 1182.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1240.0 (local highs), 1246.0 (October 2016 lows), 1262.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of a downward correction, after which the growth will resume.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1212.0 with targets at 1240.0, 1246.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with the target at 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On D1 chart, the instrument broke through the middle line of Bollinger Bands, and after that, the decline slowed down. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal, the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are pointing downwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument declines along the lower border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in negative zone with its volumes gradually growing; the signal line is crossing its body from above, keeping the signal for the opening of short orders. Stochastic crossed the border of the oversold zone from above, the oscillator lines are reversing up.

Key levels

Support levels: 14.39, 14.33, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.
Resistance levels: 14.43, 14.49, 14.60, 14.70, 14.77, 14.82, 14.89.

Trading tips

According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with the target at 14.22 and stop loss at 14.50.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 14.60 with the target at 14.82 and stop loss at 14.49.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined significantly on Tuesday, responding to the strengthening USD across the entire spectrum of the market and the decline in traders' interest in safe-haven assets due to a rise in stock markets.

Traders are focused on US-China trade conflict. According to Bloomberg, the US government is preparing to impose duties on the remaining Chinese imports, the amount of which is about USD 257B. The new duties will come into force if the November meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit ends without result. In this case, the growth of Chinese GDP next year may slow down to 1.5% (this year the figure is expected to be higher than 6.0%). However, the Chinese authorities are unlikely to allow such a decline in the economy, so they are already trying to level out the threat.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range keeps the flat dynamics remaining too narrow for the current activity at the market. MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the oversold instrument in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08, 1237.60, 1243.21.
Support levels: 1215.28, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1195.28.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1215.28 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1220.45. Take profit — 1237.60 or 1243.21. Stop loss — 1210.00.
A breakdown of 1215.28 may become a signal to further sales with target at 1208.14, 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1220.45.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the lows ​​of the current year. USD strengthened against EUR due to ADP Nonfarm Employment Change release: in October, the value increased by 227K, exceeding the forecast by 189K. Its growth has a positive effect on the level of consumption, stimulating the economy and strengthening the currency.

In September, Retail Sales in Germany rose by only 0.1% instead of the expected 0.5%, while on an annualized basis the figure fell by 2.6%. However, EU inflation’s growth exceeded market expectations. In October, CPI increased from 2.1% to 2.2%, and Core Consumer Price Index grew from 0.9% to 1.1%.

US Manufacturing PMI release is due 15:45 (GMT+2) today. It is predicted that October indicator may fall for the second month in a row, from 59.8 to 59.0 points, which will affect USD negatively.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the downward movement is in the correction towards the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to open short positions.

Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490.
Support levels: 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1330 with the target at 1.1280 and stop loss 1.1360.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1375 with the target at 1.1430 and stop loss 1.1340.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: prices are falling

Current trend

Yesterday, oil prices dropped significantly and renewed the lows since April 10 due to traders' concerns about the growing imbalance of supply and demand in the market.

The weekly EIA data released in the middle of the week reflected the growth of US oil reserves by 3.217 million barrels, which is less than the forecast of 4.110 million. However, gasoline inventories fell by 3.161 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 4.954 million. The main pressure on the quotes had an increase in American oil production. In August, it grew to 11.246 million barrels per day, which made the country the world leader in the field.

On Friday, investors will focus on the block of US labor market data and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count release.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is tending to wide, but not as fast as the “bearish” trend is developing in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards but is close to its lows, which indicates that the instrument can become is oversold in the short and/or ultra-short term.

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.

Resistance levels: 64.00, 65.00, 65.74, 67.00.
Support levels: 63.13, 62.67, 61.71, 61.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from 63.13 and the breakout of the level of 64.00 with the target at 67.00. Stop loss is 63.00 or 62.70. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels 63.13–63.00 with the target at 61.00. Stop loss is 64.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR strengthened against USD, despite macroeconomic data favorable to the American economy. October Markit Service PMI rose to 54.8 points, exceeding the forecast of 54.7 points. ISM Service PMI also outperformed the forecast, reaching 54.9 points against the forecast of 54.8. Composite Markit PMI fell by 1.3 points against the previous value but was better than expected, reaching 60.3 points.

Market participants are preparing for the upcoming Congressional midterm elections. If the Republicans fail to hold the House of Representatives, then President Trump’s position may deteriorate. Probably, representatives of the Democratic Party will impede the implementation of the economic plans of the current administration, as well as be able to raise the issue of impeachment. The investors are also focused on the trade conflict between the United States and China.

Today, traders are waiting for the EU Service PMI release. According to forecasts, in October the indicator will remain at the same level of 53.3 points.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving sideways within a corridor formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive region, generating a signal to open long positions.

Resistance levels: 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490, 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1630.
Support levels: 1.1410, 1.1395, 1.1380, 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1300 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

Mikhail Kurakin

Active member
247 0
LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the D1 chart, the instrument corrected to the center line of Bollinger Bands; the pair shows lateral movement in the corridor formed by the boundaries of the indicator. MACD histogram is at the zero level, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the signal line of the oscillator is directed horizontally.

XAG/USD, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument returned to growth after a downward correction, the pair is trading between the bottom and center lines of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is directed downwards. Stochastic is on the border of the neutral zone with the oversold zone, the oscillator lines are reversing upwards.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 14.59, 14.69, 14.77, 14.81, 14.90.
Support levels: 14.45, 14.36, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 14.90 and stop loss at 14.36.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 14.22 with target at 13.92. Stop loss — 14.36.

Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

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