Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 13%, SS – 18% /
The largest change in Commercials positions was in Heating Oil this week, so we definitely have a cot signal that we can act on. Of course examining the chart closer, we can see that two weeks ago we had an even greater change that most probably already influenced prices and that is why we see rising prices. You may ask logically if this is gonna continue? Well the extreme situation in the market also supports further rises in Heating Oil I believe.

Euro
COT Change (52W) / C – 14%, LS – 16% /
COT Extreme / C –99, LS – 86, SS – 110 report COT extreme /
The change signal and the extreme we have in Euro both point upwards… If you look at small specs, you can find them as pessimistic about the market as they were back in mid 2012 when we Euro reached an important bottom. Prices may of course continue their fall, but I don’t think it would last too long…

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 430, LS – 406 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Do I really need to say anything here? The pictures says it all!! (unquestionable large cot buy signal)

I’ll be out for a summer holiday during the next two reports, so sorry in advance for not posting. I’ll be back for the 32nd cot report this year.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
The only clear signal we have in mxp right now is the cot change signal, which is bullish. After the relative bearish extreme we had, we are moving fast towards another bullish extreme.

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / C – 212, LS – 359 report COT extreme /
The bullish cot extreme we’ve got here suggest that prices will continue the rally… We will see.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 95, LS – 91 report COT extreme /
The picture is pretty obvious: judging by the past reactions of cotton after such extremes, we should expect the downtrend to end soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Both of our major cot signals this week are producing strong bearish signals. The change was quite large besides having all time extreme both in Commercials and Large specs positions. The question may be: should we start shorting the market? Well that’s up to your system to decide, but keep in mind, that these all time cot extreme are capable of being present in a market for some time before any price reaction.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 37, LS – 141 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become large again, has a reached a level where we can start considering a trade. It would be nicer if SS were also in a align with LS and C, but nevertheless, we have a supporting cot report for thinking long.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 106 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a considerable extreme in C and LS and an unquestionable large extreme in SS. It is of course a bullish picture, but again, I need to repeat what I just said in my analysis on Palladium: these extremes can stay for long, widen even more before any change in the trend. Still, it’s good to know that we have such stresses in the Euro, cause we can start thinking of a possible long trades.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 23%, SS – 36% /
Without having a significant extreme in the market, it’s only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in traders position was very large, so the signal is good, but it might be that we received it a bit late.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time extreme we can see in this markets is telling us: warning!! The fuel in this rally is running out. Well yes, it is, but let’s not forget about the fact that all time extremes can be present in a market for many weeks or even months before any change happens in the trend.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C – 337, LS – 338 report COT extreme /
We are seeing a huge extreme in Coffee that is indicating a price fall. Will it happen in the near future or only in a matter of weeks, months… well it is hard to tell. We can see that a few months ago, the level of extreme was similar, prices fell a bit, but now they are once again rising. If this rally continues, we should see the widening of the extreme.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 26%, SS – 17% /
The cot change signal is clear, indicating a possible drop in prices, while the cot extreme signal is not strong, although still more bearish than bullish.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme is still present in Palladium, but if you remember what I said last week, this should not be a surprise. I’d recommend you analyze other metal markets also to get a picture of metals in general. We may see Palladium further strengthen, until we get similar bearish signals elsewhere. Let’s not forget about the existing correlation between these markets.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 412 report COT extreme /
The extreme in Soybeans is unquestionably large, but we don’t seem to see any reaction from price yet. Patience I say, patience…

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 25%, SS – 12% /
Not much to say hear, since we’ve only got a change signal, no extreme. The change was large, so it may influence prices this week in a positive way (= pushing prices higher)

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
As you can see, last week we’ve witnessed a significant price decline, so it may be that prices have reached their top already. If so, we shouldn’t be surprised, knowing how extreme the market is. Of course it is also unnecessary to be disappointed if you haven’t entered the trade, in the long term there is still profit to me made on this decline. Question is: are we really over the top? This will be answered only is some weeks’ time, when stress levels change: if they further increase, we may see further strengthening of Palladium, if stress levels start to shrink, we should see the continuation of the decline.


Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1144 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful extreme we have here Do I really need to write anything --> the charts tell it all For anyone new here, I’ll explain: the cot extreme is HUGE and if you look at the chart, RR usually reacted to these large cot extreme signals. I’m expecting prices to rally soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 43%, SS – 34% /
COT Index (3yr.) / C – 82%, LS – 18%, SS – 27% /
Both of our major cot signals this week are very bullish. The change in Traders positions was very large and with large movement, their positions have reached an extreme territory where we need to be cautious. If you look at the chart, you can see how well this currency reacted to these major extremes in the past. I’m expecting price to reach a bottom soon.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1145 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, we’re still waiting for the rally

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 415 report COT extreme /
Incredibly large cot extreme in Soybeans… Looking at the chart, there is no question that we are expecting a bottom, but (!) be careful, they extreme is capable of widening even more, or we may even witness a commercial capitulation. There is little chance for that, but it’s always amongst the possibilities.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 56% /
This was a large change is Traders positions, but hey (!), let’s not forget about the cot extreme situation that we were in a few weeks ago… the decline we are witnessing now is a consequence of that extreme. So what I’m trying to say is that we may see prices bounce back up, but the medium/longer term picture still looks bearish.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1146 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, prices have started to rise a bit.

USD Index
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
When we have such an extreme in a market, commercials and large specs holding positions that they have never held before, then I feel a little bit uncomfortable about what to say This picture is so very clear: we have a very large bearish cot signal that will – with high probability, nothing more – end the rally.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 85%, LS – 15%, SS – 21% /
The picture has become nice and bullish here in the Mexican Peso: we have a reasonably large change in Traders positions, giving us a bullish cot signal and also we are getting really close All Time extreme levels.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 411, LS – 396 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become HUGE, we should be getting ready for another rally here!

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C – 64, LS – 211 report COT extreme /
The bullish extreme signal suggests that we should see higher prices soon, but of course the dynamics of last week’s decline should make us cautious with entering the trade.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[vimal1]

Hi Dunstan. I use to look at COT in detail. What i was keen to understand from you is whether you have been able to identify/mould a trading strategy/system from using COT data or whether you see it as being something to use alongside other indicators/wider market effecting factors which in most cases are crop reports etc

 

[Dunstan]

Hi Dunstan. I use to look at COT in detail. What i was keen to understand from you is whether you have been able to identify/mould a trading strategy/system from using COT data or whether you see it as being something to use alongside other indicators/wider market effecting factors which in most cases are crop reports etc

Hi vnathwani,

I do not think that cot analysis on it's own can stand stable in one's trading system... you definitely need other tools as well. I look use it in two ways: 1) like a compass to help me find trading opportunities and 2) confirmation tool: if I find a trading opportunity in other ways, it's good to see whether or not the cot report supports it or not.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 43%, SS – 28% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 18%, LS – 84% /
The cot change signal is present: a large, bullish signal. Would have been nicer, if we could see it a bit earlier --> prices have already gone up significantly last week. Is there room for more rally? The longer term picture looks more bearish, so it may be a bit riskier to expect further rises… To be honest, I think it’s simply best, if we look towards other markets, where the signs are more clear.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 150, LS – 158 report COT extreme /
The extreme is relatively large (could be much larger) and at a level, where for the last two occasions, prices reacted to the signal. It is a bullish picture.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 127 report COT extreme /
I find this market to be very interesting, because the cot report is bearish, although prices are low… If we look at a much longer chart, we can find much larger bearish cot extremes, so if prices start to go higher, there would be room for the extreme to get larger too, thus we could reach a top, where the extreme would seem normal.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, SS – 44% /
COT Extreme / C – 49 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot change signal is negative, Small Speculators extreme situation also… Could we see further decline in prices?

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – 345 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is huge, close to all time levels. This is definitely a warning that prices may not be able to continue their rise for too long. Let’s get prepared for a drop in prices.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 159, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
We have reached a cot extreme level where the last two times prices bottomed out and we could see price rally develop afterwards. This is absolutely amongst the possible outcome of this current cot signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.


S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 35, SS – 58% /
The picture is bullish. The large change in Trader’s position, the relative cot extreme here and the more visible, large cot extreme in the Dow support further rally.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C – 294, LS – 294 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme in orange juice is unquestionably large and showing a very bullish picture. Signals were nice and effective in this market, so I’d say we can really use this signal and consider a long trade.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 184, LS – 180 report COT extreme /
In contrary to OJ, here the extreme is only large in relative terms. We do see much greater extremes in the past, so it’s a bit difficult to tell, whether or not this extreme is capable of stopping the recent decline or not. It may be a wise idea to analyze other energy markets and taking into account the correlation between them.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi am sailu.new to penny stocks market please give me your advise about on XR-ENERGY.I did not know properly about the XR-Energy.

Hi sailuscottline,

The topic of this thread, COT analysis, is capable of helping your decision making in futures markets and corresponding options. Directly it would no be of any help for your stock analysis, unless taking into consideration the correlation between such stocks and commodity prices.

Once you find this correlation between XR-ENERGY and Crude Oil, I advise you to have a look at the cot report for crude oil and see where it's price is headed. This might be somewhat helpful for you.

I have attached a chart on Crude Oil, you can see that the picture - from the cot report's point of view - seems to becoming more bullish week by week. There is definitely no real large cot extreme yet, but it's headed in that direction. What this means is that in a few weeks, but rather months time - give that the extreme widens even more - we may reach such a stress level in the market that can be capable of stopping the current down trend, igniting another rally. This would obviously affect companies working in the industry.

I hope this was helpful to you.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

wooops, I forgot the attachment, sorry

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 38 /
It’s really only the cot change signal that can affect prices now and of course downwards: we do not have a cot extreme situation at the moment. The last major extreme was the bullish one a few weeks ago and as you can see, it still in effect.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – 317 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Small Speculators being all time optimistic about the market is always a warning sign

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 185, LS – 181 report COT extreme /
Any questions here? The extreme has been present for a few weeks now and we can see that prices last week managed to rally nicely, so we may have the confirmation needed think seriously about further rallies in natural gas.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 27 /
Ok, the change was large, it may draw prices lower in the next few days… What I’m more interested is the long term picture. Prices are high, but we don’t see any indication from the report that we should expect the end of the rally. If you look at small specs here in the Dow, you can see how pessimistic they are about further rallies… I think that’s just a good evidence for us that supports a bullish picture.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / LS – 296 report COT extreme /
Don’t miss out the opportunity lying here! The bullish cot extreme is present and it is unquestionably large. As you can see on the chart, OJ has reacted nicely to cot extreme signals. I think it can be a wonderful trade.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 125, SS - 334 report COT extreme /
Wow, another great market with a beautiful signal! All major participants of the market hold extremely large positions and similarly to OJ, judging by the past, the market is likely going to react to the signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 31 /
The larger changes in Commercials and Large Specs positions resulted in a bearish cot change signal. Analyzing the market we can come to the conclusion that these cot change signals were not necessarily effective in many cases. Since we do not have any extreme to talk about (unless we consider the 33 report extreme a relative extreme) I’d say we should move on to other markets.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 10%, LS – 13% /
COT Extreme / C – 584, LS – 579 report COT extreme /
I have already analyzed orange jucie last week and it seems that prices have reacted to the signals. It is of course still a good trade in the long run. The changes in Traders positions (Commercials and Large Speculators) were definitely larger than average - bullish signal - but it is really the cot extreme situation we have that makes the trading opportunity very exciting. As you may see on the chart, it has reacted pretty well to these cot extreme signals in the past, and since we have got a very significant extreme, this too has a high chance to become an effective signal.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme /LS – 183 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is wide and is worth taking into consideration when we analyze the trading opportunities in natural gas, but last week’s decline should warn us to be very cautious with any trade. We may easily see further decline accompanied by a widening extreme. I’m not saying it is going to happen, but it shouldn’t be a neglected possibility. The extreme is present, it is bullish --> this is fact.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 29, SS – 15% /
Although S&P-400 made it to the top in the list regarding the size of change in Commercials position, I don’t believe that it was too significant. The cot extreme is not large either, so I wouldn’t think it would too wise to force any serious conclusion here. Let’s just say, it’s one of the typical weeks, when we haven’t got a cot signal.

Natural Gas
COT Index (3yrs) / C – 93%, LS – 0%, SS – 74% /
COT Extreme /LS – 184 report COT extreme /
The bullish cot extreme is still present in Natural Gas (at least on C and LS side --> SS signal seems to be more bearish). Are we going to see a widening of the extreme in the next few weeks? I don’t know… it is not an easy puzzle that’s for sure.

Platinum
COT Extreme /LS – 117 report COT extreme /
Bullish cot extreme. Large? If we look at the past 5-10 years: Yes, but we have seen much greater extreme before. Still, it is a valid sign, that stress levels are getting much higher. Should we jump in on this signal and start buying? Hmmm… Put this piece of information beside the rest of your analysis (traditional TA etc…) and decide. On its own, this extreme wouldn’t push me into such a decision.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts