Evolution of technical analysis?

Real-Numbers

Junior member
16 1
What would you dream of to have at hand to be able to have the next generation of technical analysis? TA is always evolving, so how do you see it in the future? What information you think it would be useful, market depth? Think outside the box if you want, think that you have 1 bil$ to invest in it for development. I am curious on why people only talk about what we have now and not what we can have in the near future, tech is developing but we are still make choices on old and outdated indicators.
 

David Knight

Established member
731 177
What would you dream of to have at hand to be able to have the next generation of technical analysis? TA is always evolving, so how do you see it in the future? What information you think it would be useful, market depth? Think outside the box if you want, think that you have 1 bil$ to invest in it for development. I am curious on why people only talk about what we have now and not what we can have in the near future, tech is developing but we are still make choices on old and outdated indicators.
1-'There is nothing new in Wall Street' - Jesse Livermore

2- It's been proved enough times that the most successful trading business model is based on fraud, corruption, lies, deception, manipulation, collusion, cheating, false accounting, stealing, bail outs, bail ins and generally 'doing God's work'. (see 1)

3 -Is the 1 bil$ repayable or can i piss it all up the wall like say.. Jamie Dimon or dick Fuld..?

4- if it's repayable, can I have a large chunk up front now before I start giving you my best ideas for nothing ?

5-Most traders will still lose no matter what...but who cares about humanity right?

6- Any TA that threatened the profits of the trillionaires would be bought up and you'd be told to go away and forget about it.

7- With a tiny fraction of yourbudget you'd get better results training a team of chimpanzees to follow your trading rules.

It's been proved that those guys are pretty tenacious, focused and unclouded by emotion or delusions of technical excellence
They just carve out bread and butter results everytime they hear the bell ring. (they even clap along with the other morons at the open)

And bottom line, they know the difference between obeying a stoploss or getting tasered in the nuts.

I guarantee you could taser most wall streeters in the nuts repeatedly and they would still figure out a way to rig bids on municipal bonds while blowing smoke up your arse..
 
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Real-Numbers

Junior member
16 1
1-'There is nothing new in Wall Street' - Jesse Livermore

2- It's been proved enough times that the most successful trading business model is based on fraud, corruption, lies, deception, manipulation, collusion, cheating, false accounting, stealing, bail outs, bail ins and generally 'doing God's work'. (see 1)

3 -Is the 1 bil$ repayable or can i piss it all up the wall like say.. Jamie Dimon or dick Fuld..?

4- if it's repayable, can I have a large chunk up front now before I start giving you my best ideas for nothing ?

5-Most traders will still lose no matter what...but who cares about humanity right?

6- Any TA that threatened the profits of the trillionaires would be bought up and you'd be told to go away and forget about it.

7- With a tiny fraction of yourbudget you'd get better results training a team of chimpanzees to follow your trading rules.

It's been proved that those guys are pretty tenacious, focused and unclouded by emotion or delusions of technical excellence
They just carve out bread and butter results everytime they hear the bell ring. (they even clap along with the other morons at the open)

And bottom line, they know the difference between obeying a stoploss or getting tasered in the nuts.

I guarantee you could taser most wall streeters in the nuts repeatedly and they would still figure out a way to rig bids on municipal bonds while blowing smoke up your arse..


Thank you for the reply but that does not answer my question. What i understand from it is that you consider the system as being a big fraud and that you believe the big institutions will always be ahead. Even if partially i agree with you, i can observe a certain development of the technical analysis techniques due to development of the technology. If you know anything about this, than you can maybe imagine a way that the TA will look in the future, or what info they will use, as more will be available to us. I believe you don't expect for future traders, let's say in 10 years, to use the same price charts, same indicators, having neural networks available to them, having 3D multidimensional graphs at their finger tips and so on. I admit that the institutions will have an edge, but what i want to know is what traders think that they could use to make that edge smaller, to still keep them in the race.
 

David Knight

Established member
731 177
Thank you for the reply but that does not answer my question. What i understand from it is that you consider the system as being a big fraud and that you believe the big institutions will always be ahead. Even if partially i agree with you, i can observe a certain development of the technical analysis techniques due to development of the technology. If you know anything about this, than you can maybe imagine a way that the TA will look in the future, or what info they will use, as more will be available to us. I believe you don't expect for future traders, let's say in 10 years, to use the same price charts, same indicators, having neural networks available to them, having 3D multidimensional graphs at their finger tips and so on. I admit that the institutions will have an edge, but what i want to know is what traders think that they could use to make that edge smaller, to still keep them in the race.
Fair enough.

I will give it some more thought and get back to you in a couple of months time.

It's a tough one though..

 

Real-Numbers

Junior member
16 1
Your replies say a lot about yourself. Others seem smarter by just keeping quiet. I suggest you do the same from now on, try and keep intact any reputation you got left.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,128 1,209
I've wondered why TA software (that I have seen) does not incorporate ability to plot bars or candlesticks into the future. This would help greatly in planning a trade and how to react to price action once in the position. It should be easy to do from the tech point of view. I would want the MA's, ATR, in fact all indicators to respond to the projected price data also.

The projected price controls could also feature a menu of standard candlestick patterns. So if I have a series of bars which are real I could click from a menu to add say a 2 or 3 or 4-bar candlestick pattern after the last feature.
 

Rufus_Leakey

Active member
144 37
I've wondered why TA software (that I have seen) does not incorporate ability to plot bars or candlesticks into the future.
This reminds me of when I called my local newspaper and asked why they couldn't deliver tomorrow's news today. The millennial I spoke with said they don't do that anymore. He muttered something about upsetting the space-time continuum and lost me as a customer that day.:mad:

Or maybe I misunderstood something in your post.:)
 
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tomorton

Legendary member
8,128 1,209
This reminds me of when I called my local newspaper and asked why they couldn't deliver tomorrow's news today. The millennial I spoke with said they don't do that anymore. He muttered something about upsetting the space-time continuum and lost me as a customer that day.:mad:

Or maybe I misunderstood something in your post.:)
Yes, you did......
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,504 1,972
What would you dream of to have at hand to be able to have the next generation of technical analysis? TA is always evolving, so how do you see it in the future? What information you think it would be useful, market depth? Think outside the box if you want, think that you have 1 bil$ to invest in it for development. I am curious on why people only talk about what we have now and not what we can have in the near future, tech is developing but we are still make choices on old and outdated indicators.
I would first focus on mastering the current wave first ....most traders still have no idea what they mean in truth...fortunately for the small percentage of traders that are profitable
N
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,504 1,972
Your replies say a lot about yourself. Others seem smarter by just keeping quiet. I suggest you do the same from now on, try and keep intact any reputation you got left.
Welcome RN.....you have real potential here at T2W.....!

Hoping you have the talent to back it up.....

N
 

David Knight

Established member
731 177
Your replies say a lot about yourself. Others seem smarter by just keeping quiet. I suggest you do the same from now on, try and keep intact any reputation you got left.

Ok junior, I'll think about that as well.

Thanks forthe sage advice.

Let's hope all the smart ones here keep silent as per your suggestion.

Maybe the rest of the community could take an IQ test before being given the privilege to answer your questions.

In the meantime, don't worry about acting as if you own the joint- it was all running as intended long before you got here, and it will manage fine long after you leave.

Btw, answers posted here are often intended for the benefit of the whole community and not just the self centered immature people who think everything revolves around them.
 
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trendie

Legendary member
6,508 1,110
Have to agree with the Dark Knight there,
"where are all the customers yachts?", etc

That being said, Precognitive Remote Perception.
Developing protocols to use precognition in a systematic way to determine future prices.
Targ, Puthoff, etc.
 

J Livermore

Active member
101 29
I would first focus on mastering the current wave first ....most traders still have no idea what they mean in truth...fortunately for the small percentage of traders that are profitable
N
Years ago, I was always told by the traders who had been in it a long time that “Systems don’t make money. Traders make money.”

Has this been your experience?
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,430 2,858
Hi folks,

On a serious note, TA is a lagging tool. I used to use it too thinking it held the key but for some time now only look at levels and observe some Pivot Points and Fib retracement areas.

I'm not saying PPs, Fib levels work or don't work. Just simply that if I have to pick some random R/S levels, based on my history and charts often Fib levels and PPs coincide along with graphic S/R levels observed by the naked eye. Ultimately they must do as PPs and Fib Retracements levels are all obtained from the numbers on the bars represented by the price graph. Anyhow, without going into lots of mathematical detail as if it adds legitimacy to TA that's what they are useful for in my limited opinion. Mainly for identifying targets for S/R levels.

Momentum/MACD/RSI and a host of other indicators but not very useful. I'd only give them 5% weighting in making any market entry or exit decision. TA is well overrated.

If you want to trade like a professional trader it's Fundamentals and News that drive price movements. As indicators go market breadth and volume are heavy weights in determining direction. Information is key. Usually, the professionals have access to this level of info. Citizen Joe trading off some SB charts is kidding himself if they think they are on par with the professionals.

As for embedding some future edge into TA well as mentioned before not possible. TA is a lagging indicator. Has to be observed before it can be input / output into any process one desires to observe. There lies the crux of the matter. Who ever has the information first has the edge. Insider knowledge, big players, secrets, the old boy network is what gives the winners the edge. The rest of us are simply laggards in the system. Big fund managers talk to their buddies and they move together and they have the money to shift markets.

CEO's of big blue chip companies play golf and they talk about numbers to their brokers who talk to their rich clients. Somebody somewhere always knows something you don't. Hence, the price moves. By the time news gets out to Private Investors, it's kind of been well used and abused.

People talk about theoretical perfect information about supply and demand being available to everyone in determining price but that is simply not true. It sort of gravitates to that sort of sentiment but the guys who make the big money always know before anyone else does. Accountants are another group of people who are in the know and good to tap on ie the big boys.

So who ever talks about cracking TA in making calls and devising systems to beat the market, I have to laugh. You are not the first and certainly not be the last to think it so. I like candle sticks and simple three candles can give good insight into market forces between bulls and bears. However, even here, one is still looking at a lagging indicator which says nothing to sentiment now, especially after some new piece of news is released.

If anyone is interested in formulating a trading system then subject to the instrument one is trading then I would look at daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly numbers on selected and relevant market sectors. ie. If you are trading coffee look at sales as well demand and supply for tea, the weather, medical research and demographic factors. Looking at some past historic lines on a graph trumpeting power of TA will tell you zilch about where price is going tomorrow.

Equally important focus on psychology and trading discipline fighting ones demons; greed and fear and manage risk. Even here professional traders have an edge or perhaps not really so but it is perceived that way. This is because their risk levels are managed on how much they can bet and a bank or institution will have accumulated collective risk exposure to any instrument. So their psychology and temperament may be sh!t like any other trader here but the systems and their trading positions which will always be monitored will have constraints and limits set on them by external administrative processes established by that trading dept.


(y)
 
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