Euro and Cable Thoughts

[geldmeister]

Try to post some views as time permits.

Looking for the ending to the 5th, projected from the ends of the 1 waves.

Happy Holidays Everyone.

 

[geldmeister]

While I believe that the overall trend is up, here is a good opportunity to short cable with a small scalp, if price reaches the entry target on time, 1.9705 @ 11/12:00 UTC.

Cover part of the trade quickly 10 - 15 pips and move and/or trail stops, price should bounce well off the resistance. Tight stops should be in place 1.9715/20 max.

Targets are the middle of the channel 1.9650, and the 1.9600 bottom.

 

[JULIEROSE]

After Friday's news on the US economy I'll be shorting GBP/USD next week. My broker opens for trading at 8pm tomorrow night EST but I doubt I'll entering any trades until 7am next day. I want to see how London does before the American open. I may even wait until Wednesday afternoon as Tuesday is a day of mourning for President Ford so I'm not sure how quiet it will be. I'm pretty sure the overall trend will be down this coming week but hey anything can happen.

 

[geldmeister]

Julierose,

Yes, anything can happen, but when I look at Cable all I see is a big Flag. I think a correction or dollar strength is coming but I’m looking for more north action in the mean time. Be careful of trading mid range unless your confident on your timing, personally I do not listen very closely to the news. And be very careful trading over the holidays as the markets are very thin and can be easily pushed around, Tomorrow will be nil, New years…. It till be mid/late if not next week before they return to anything close to normal.

Cheers,

 

[JULIEROSE]

Well I'll be looking at the four hour chart on Wednesday around 7am EST. I expect the overall trend to be down next week but anything can happen as we all know. We all just have to listen to the market and let it tell us if the trend is down or up. Next I'll look for the overbought/underbought signal, and for it to hit a resistence or support level then enter the trade. I try and keep it simple.

How often do you trade? Are you a day trader? How many trades do youdo a day/week?

 

[geldmeister]

Julierose

I’ve always looked at a trend as a continuation of higher highs and higher lows or the opposite, right now GBP, looks like neither, imo, unless you view from a higher time frame or use a different method of determining. I’ve put up some of the support resistance lines, on a zoomed 4hr. chart. Are you looking for a breakout of a certain level when you are determining the trend direction?

When you say you are looking for an overbought/underbought signal at a resistance or support level, doses this mean you are looking to trade against the trend or breakout, or are you looking for a pull back once the breakout or trend is evident in your opinion and trade with the move after the initial correction? I’m having difficulty in understanding your post?

Trends are a wonderful thing, once you can determine them, the draw back is usually when I see it everyone else sees it too, and if one is content just to follow, you never know when it will end.

I’m a preverbal top and bottom picker.

Please illustrate with a chart what you will be looking for on Wednesday both long and short, entry levels, stop placements, targets.

Cheers,

 

[marste100]

Julierose,

It is difficult to predict the exact direction for the next week, the Eur/usd, and the Gbp/usd was moving opposite direction. As i can see it is better to buy Eur/Gbp( because it startad to rise from the 1-2 year bottom 0.6700.), than to enter a Gbp/usd position.

Do you trade only the Gbp/Usd?
Because there are a lot of other good trades out there on different pairs.

 

[coolTrader]

Julierose,

Yes, anything can happen, but when I look at Cable all I see is a big Flag. I think a correction or dollar strength is coming but I’m looking for more north action in the mean time. Be careful of trading mid range unless your confident on your timing, personally I do not listen very closely to the news. And be very careful trading over the holidays as the markets are very thin and can be easily pushed around, Tomorrow will be nil, New years…. It till be mid/late if not next week before they return to anything close to normal.

Cheers,

Nice flag. I know it's a holday that is why you had the time to paint it
:cheesy:

 

[bhavin]

Nice flag. I know it's a holday that is why you had the time to paint it
:cheesy:

GBPUSD - Is it really a flag? i dont think so. even if it is a flag, will there be a thousand pip move to up? I doubt it. I think we may have seen a top on GBP at 1.9850 - people are still talking to $2.00, will we get it? definitely not this year.
we shall start seeing a dollar bull run soon. It's all dollar manipulations! i think:

 

[milt]

Julierose

I’ve always looked at a trend as a continuation of higher highs and higher lows or the opposite, right now GBP, looks like neither, imo, unless you view from a higher time frame or use a different method of determining. I’ve put up some of the support resistance lines, on a zoomed 4hr. chart. Are you looking for a breakout of a certain level when you are determining the trend direction?

When you say you are looking for an overbought/underbought signal at a resistance or support level, doses this mean you are looking to trade against the trend or breakout, or are you looking for a pull back once the breakout or trend is evident in your opinion and trade with the move after the initial correction? I’m having difficulty in understanding your post?

Trends are a wonderful thing, once you can determine them, the draw back is usually when I see it everyone else sees it too, and if one is content just to follow, you never know when it will end.

I’m a preverbal top and bottom picker.

Please illustrate with a chart what you will be looking for on Wednesday both long and short, entry levels, stop placements, targets.

Cheers,

I always bear in mind that "top & bottom pickers become cotton pickers"!!!

 

[tradewinds]

I always bear in mind that "top & bottom pickers become cotton pickers"!!!

I agree, infact when the RSI hits 70 I buy another contract, ands when it hits 30, I sell by adding anohter contract. And each time it hits the oversold or overbought level I add a contract. I never understood why the technical analysis books say its overbought/oversold at 70 and 30, i find the opposite.

 

[JULIEROSE]

Julierose

I’ve always looked at a trend as a continuation of higher highs and higher lows or the opposite, right now GBP, looks like neither, imo, unless you view from a higher time frame or use a different method of determining. I’ve put up some of the support resistance lines, on a zoomed 4hr. chart. Are you looking for a breakout of a certain level when you are determining the trend direction?

When you say you are looking for an overbought/underbought signal at a resistance or support level, doses this mean you are looking to trade against the trend or breakout, or are you looking for a pull back once the breakout or trend is evident in your opinion and trade with the move after the initial correction? I’m having difficulty in understanding your post?

Trends are a wonderful thing, once you can determine them, the draw back is usually when I see it everyone else sees it too, and if one is content just to follow, you never know when it will end.

I’m a preverbal top and bottom picker.

Please illustrate with a chart what you will be looking for on Wednesday both long and short, entry levels, stop placements, targets.

Cheers,

I wish I had loads of time to discuss this but I have a newborn and a 2 year old. This is what I did.

Get Fridays chart up from 4 am to 4pm. Find the two tops and draw your trend line. The trend is down. The trend is our friend so we trade the trend. By bringing up the relative strength index this shows you oversold and overbought signals. After 6:30am the market is getting overbought, relative strength hits above 70-75 we have our entry signal to short at around 196.50. From around 7am to about 11:00am the market trends down until we get the exit signal on relative strength below 35. This is where I exited the trade at 195.75.

This is what I do every day. I get at least a four hour chart up, get my two tops and draw the trend. You will see a pattern occur. Then take your relative strength indicator to tell you when to enter and exit trades. I do trade the market against the trend but not often. I tend to stay with the trend for the day in case it has a breakout. I usually find that at 10:30-11:00am EST the US market has usually hit it’s high or low and that may be when I consider going against the trend if relative strength and the other indicators show me the trade. If I’m not sure of the trend I won’t trade and I’ll look for another pair; or I’ll hedge GBP/USD with EUR/USD as they usually have a similar movement. I usually put stop at 25-30 pips.

 

[geldmeister]

bhavin

GBPUSD - Is it really a flag? i dont think so. even if it is a flag, will there be a thousand pip move to up? I doubt it. I think we may have seen a top on GBP at 1.9850 - people are still talking to $2.00, will we get it? definitely not this year.
we shall start seeing a dollar bull run soon. It's all dollar manipulations! i think:

Bhavin,

Another 1000 pips, I doubt it too. But I think we will have one more run north to get all the break out traders on board. Pop the 2. mark. But imho, this line and it’s parallels hold some key, looks like we blew through it and have retested, closing back below should make a lot of people take notice above and still more north.

Cheers,

 

[geldmeister]

On the open price over the last few hours price has shot north, currently 1.9640 if we could shift over to account for the weekends bars we would look like this, testing the down sloping resistance.

 

[Atilla]

GBPUSD - Is it really a flag? i dont think so. even if it is a flag, will there be a thousand pip move to up? I doubt it. I think we may have seen a top on GBP at 1.9850 - people are still talking to $2.00, will we get it? definitely not this year.
we shall start seeing a dollar bull run soon. It's all dollar manipulations! i think:

What are your reasons for the dollar bull run? Be interested to know also, what kind of dollar manipulations are you expecting?

I heard European banks may start supporting the USD soon but not sure if this is rumour or fact at the mo.

 

[laptop1]

What are your reasons for the dollar bull run? Be interested to know also, what kind of dollar manipulations are you expecting?

I heard European banks may start supporting the USD soon but not sure if this is rumour or fact at the mo.

If China and Japan were to stop supporting the U.S. dollar, the dollar would crash, as simple as that!

The question remains, how long will Japan and China continue to support the U.S. dollar? Each day they do, they add more dollars to their already massive dollar holdings. Demand for goods in America seems to be slowing, while European and Asian internal demand seems to be growing.

One day soon, foreign nations will not have the motivation to support the dollar and America’s massive deficits, because to do so simply will not benefit them any longer. When that day comes, it will come as a giant knockout blow for the dollar.

 

[jacinto]

If China and Japan were to stop supporting the U.S. dollar, the dollar would crash, as simple as that!

The question remains, how long will Japan and China continue to support the U.S. dollar? Each day they do, they add more dollars to their already massive dollar holdings. Demand for goods in America seems to be slowing, while European and Asian internal demand seems to be growing.

One day soon, foreign nations will not have the motivation to support the dollar and America’s massive deficits, because to do so simply will not benefit them any longer. When that day comes, it will come as a giant knockout blow for the dollar.

but that wont be tomorrow, or the day after, or the following day, or next week, or next month, or next year, wont it

 

[laptop1]

but that wont be tomorrow, or the day after, or the following day, or next week, or next month, or next year, wont it

It has always been clear that China and Japan will support the US dollar only as long as it is in their interest only while US consumption of their goods continues to grow. We have seen that US economic growth is faltering and therefore I believe we could be at the end of their support of the dollar time will tell, but not good if you are a day trader, but start positioning yourself if you are a position trader.

 

[Marwan2010]

but that wont be tomorrow, or the day after, or the following day, or next week, or next month, or next year, wont it

absolutely! as traders our focus is now, today and tommorrow! - when it happens the charts will give us the danger signs. Most traders tend to lose focus and look at the "macro" view to trade "micro"
As for Dollar, there simply is no choice to replace it with another currency, so the dollar stays!

 

[Atilla]

but that wont be tomorrow, or the day after, or the following day, or next week, or next month, or next year, wont it

I tend to go for long bets on the GBPUSD. This is based on my personal view of the $ needing to fall to cope with it's twin defecits.

I would be interested in Forex players view of the $ for tomorrow, or the day after, or the following day, or next week, or next month, or next year might be.