ES Trading

[new_trader]

Would I lie to you?

Banks Battle Speculation Denmark’s Euro Peg at Risk: Currencies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-...t-speculation-denmark-s-euro-peg-at-risk.html

Banks in Scandinavia are joining the Danish government in trying to persuade offshore investors that the Nordic country isn’t about to copy Switzerland and drop its euro peg.

"We will enforce the floor with utmost determination."

45,132

 

[new_trader]

Diary of a trade

This is a trade I have been working on since I formulated the plan while lying on the beach on the Algarve back in December 2013. The original plan was remarkably simple, enter with small stakes and scale up! It proved to be far trickier in practice. I have been knocked out of my position a number of times but I have persevered. Over 12 months later and this is where I am at. The goal is to get my stake up to £10/point and net +£100,000 in profit.

There are only two possible outcomes: 1) I am successful with this trade and make my target of +£100,000 or 2) My bucket shop is bankrupted by a Black Swan event and I lose everything. There is no time limit.

I have masked the details of what instrument I am trading so that nobody can mimic my trade, suffice it to say it is gold related.

If you didn’t have much of a reason to read my journal before then you might have one now. Do I make a killing or do I lose the lot? I'm goin' in!

45,240

 

[new_trader]

Diary of a trade

There has been an update since my first diary entry. One stop was hit this week when gold retraced but I took advantage of the opportunity and added to my position.

Current Status:

• Position size: 30.4%
• Profit target: 1.22%

45,642

 

[new_trader]

Why people leave trading forums

There are many other reasons , some of them may have improved in trading to the point that they cant login to this forum anymore .

...

[edited]

This explains why I hardly visit or post on t2w. I feel my understanding of the markets and economics has surpassed that of most people posting on this forum and other forums, they are all the same!!

People!!

The impression I get is that despite what has happened in the world over the last 10 years (roughly the time I've been a member of this forum), most people seem content to maintain their stale, ignorant and incorrect opinion.

It also never ceases to amaze me the number of veteran members who still think there is something new to discuss about the markets...whether it is a strategy, a way to place stops, money management or any other topic that has already been discussed ad nauseam.






47,384

 

[new_trader]

The propaganda begins

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system


Now, do a search for the following: INCOME INEQUALITY CHART

Look at the trends since 15 August 1971.


(I'm sure the modern economists and Government apologists will ignore the obvious and come up with a convoluted explanation.)

PAUL TUDOR JONES: Income inequality will end in revolution, taxes, or war

http://uk.businessinsider.com/paul-tudor-jones-on-inequality-2015-3?r=US

Over the last several decades, however, there's been a shift.

That's right! The shift has been:

• A shift away from the gold standard
• A shift away from free-market capitalism
• A shift towards fiat money and Central Planning
• A shift towards Central Bankers arbitrarily picking interest rates
• A shift towards Central Bankers arbitrarily picking inflation targets

Tudor Jones continued: "I've seen a lot of crazy things in markets ... And unfortunately, I'm sad to report that right now we might be on the grips of certainly one of the most disastrous certainly in my career."

That's right, I warned about this long before you did too. We have Central Bankers doing crazy things like suppressing interest rates and printing money. That has NEVER WORKED.

"Now capitalism has been responsible for every major innovation that's made this world a more inspiring and wonderful place to live in,"

CORRECT!

"Maybe we will find out the most important thing for the public is create living wage jobs or make healthy products or help, not harm the environment,"

No, we ARE finding out that Central Bankers and Central Planning makes things WORSE. We need to move back to free-market CAPITALISM.









47,516

 

[new_trader]

Waiting until June

IMO: The market doesn't care about jobless claims or Non-farm payrolls or ISM-manufacturing or GDP etc...All the market wants is MOAR CHEAP MONEY!! So they are going NOWHERE until June 16-17 which is the meeting where the FED is highly anticipated to start raising interest rates.

I think the FED has backed itself into a corner and will have to raise rates at that meeting even if it is only by the tiniest amount possible (0.25%) or it will lose the little remaining credibility it has left.

Simple formula: No rate rise = gold will soar. In the meantime, I'm still stacking


It is a sad state of affairs but that's what you get when you give a few (clueless) overlords monopoly power over currency.


Here is an excellent lecture from the only economic school that actually understands economics.

[N.B: This video is not suitable for brain-dead zombies who believe in the bogeyman, the tooth fairy and capitalists who want to enslave your children and force them to sweep chimneys and work in coal mines.]






ES: 2077.25
GC: 1194.3






48,339

 

[new_trader]

Will they ever figure it out?

That's right, I warned about this long before you did too. We have Central Bankers doing crazy things like suppressing interest rates and printing money. That has NEVER WORKED.

-----

No, we ARE finding out that Central Bankers and Central Planning makes things WORSE. We need to move back to free-market CAPITALISM.

World Economy Doing Worse in Practice Than Theory Suggests
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-doing-worse-in-practice-than-theory-suggests

Easy monetary policy, a halving of the price of oil and sliding currencies in many parts of the world should be a recipe for faster economic expansion.

Yes, it "should be" if you are a delusional Keynesian who thinks printing money and suppressing interest rates "works"....

...and even though it hasn't worked, and never will work, that won't stop the Central Bankers from doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results!

The Austrian economists know why, the stupid Keynesians will never figure it out...they will just keep doing more and more of what didn't work.


Austrian Business Cycle Theory

48,635

 

[new_trader]

Barbarous Relic?

The Mystery of China’s Gold Stash May Soon Be Solved
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-gold-stash-may-soon-be-solved-as-imf-beckons

“If you want to set yourself up as a reserve currency, you may want to have assets on your balance sheet other than other fiat currencies,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said by phone from Toronto. Gold is “certainly viewed as a viable store of value for an up-and-coming global power,” he said.

This makes me neither more bullish or less bullish on gold. It's just interesting to read when not very long ago Bloomberg kept trying to convince us that investors "lost faith" in gold as a store of value. It seems an up-and-coming global power didn't get that memo.

I suppose the Keynesians will say "Stupid Chinese, buying all that useless yellow metal"


ES @ 2098.25
GC @ 1188.1


(I would have posted this sooner if T2W wasn't having problems)




49,035

 

[new_trader]

Malinvestment everywhere!!

The Austrian business cycle theory in practice!​

http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Malinvestment

Malinvestment is a mistaken investment in wrong lines of production, which inevitably lead to wasted capital and economic losses, subsequently requiring the reallocation of resources to more productive uses. "Wrong" in this sense means incorrect or mistaken from the point of view of the real long-term needs and demands of the economy, if those needs and demands were expressed with the correct price signals in the free market.

Tesco posts record £6.4bn annual loss
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32408661

Tesco has reported the worst results in its history with a record statutory pre-tax loss of £6.4bn for the year to the end of February.

That compares with annual pre-tax profit of £2.26bn a year earlier.

It is the biggest loss suffered by a UK retailer and one of the largest in the country's corporate history.

Is this really such a surprise that these record losses coincide with unprecedented monetary policy; Record low interest rates and Q.E?

He added: "The results we have published today reflect a deterioration in the market and, more significantly, an erosion of our competitiveness over recent years."

He said that he expected conditions in the coming financial year to remain challenging.

Where are the Keynesians to tell us how low interest rates and money printing "works"...how about that deflation bogeyman? It seems consumers want low prices, not rising prices like the Central Bankers keep telling us. Perhaps that was Tesco's mistake? They should have kept increasing their prices so as to not terrify their shoppers away with falling prices?

http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Malinvestment

A credit expansion may appear to render submarginal capital profitable once more, but this too will be malinvestment, and the now greater error will be exposed when this boom is over. Thus, credit expansion generates the business cycle regardless of the existence of unemployed factors. Credit expansion in the midst of unemployment will create more distortions and malinvestments, delay recovery from the preceding boom, and make a more grueling recovery necessary in the future. While it is true that the unemployed factors are not now diverted from more valuable uses as employed factors would be (since they were speculatively idle or malinvested instead of employed), the other complementary factors will be diverted into working with them, and these factors will be malinvested and wasted. Moreover, all the other distorting effects of credit expansion will still follow, and a depression will be necessary to correct the new distortion.

- Murray Rothbard

Bloomberg
Does the Collapse of a Chinese Developer Signal the Start of More Defaults?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-now-official-who-s-next-becomes-key-question

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. captivated Wall Street by minting fortunes from troubled real estate in China.

Now the developer is in trouble itself -- and the question is how far the pain will spread.

http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Malinvestment

The popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosophers' stone to make it last.

-Ludwig von Mises

Don't think this can't happen in Britain. I know there is exists an attitude of “You can’t lose with prop-uh-ee”, but I think the seeds for the next collapse are being sown in this artificial boom. I see cranes everywhere building stuff...shopping mall expansions, residential properties or business expansion. I see cranes everywhere when I take a trip to London and I bet if you looked around where you live you will see cranes everywhere too.

The policies of Central Bankers and Governments have turned a Recession into a Depression.​

ES @ 2103.50
GC @ 1191.8



49,143

 

[new_trader]

Diary of a trade

Stops hit, new positions added, 2 steps forward and 3 steps back! This trade is testing both my courage and conviction, however I am well armed with margin and a robust trade management plan which I have stuck to. I am determined to succeed. (Please...hold your 'Likes' until the end)

Current Status:

• Position size: 45.0%
• Profit target: 0.698%

I need some Kate Ceberano...mmm...Kate...

49,295

 

[new_trader]

Europeans have been made poorer, watch them celebrate!

Euro Area Ends Flirt With Deflation as ECB Pumps Billions in QE
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rt-with-deflation-as-ecb-pumps-billions-in-qe

Euro-area consumer prices ended a four-month streak of declines after the European Central Bank started pumping billions of euros into the bloc’s economy through its quantitative-easing program.

I suppose the Europeans can start eating again without having to worry that the pizza they bought today might be 0.1% cheaper next month...phew!

The improvement helps ECB President Mario Draghi’s case that large-scale asset purchases have already shown success in averting deflation in the 19-nation economy. Bank lending increased in March for the first time since 2012 and encouraging data from Germany to Spain point to a strengthening recovery even as the Greek crisis undermines confidence.

Got that? Prices rising for hardworking poor and middle class people is an improvement in their standard of living.

I suppose Europeans will be celebrating now that Super Mario has increased their cost of living! For a moment there I suppose many suffered sleepless nights worrying that the things they need and want to buy might be 0.1% cheaper next year...OMG!

Enough of the sarcasm...Who on earth (Other than Governments and Central Bankers) could possibly believe that paying MORE for goods and services is good news? I said earlier that Keynesian economics is riddled with contradictions and false logic and this current story is yet another example.

Remember back in this post:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/93396-es-trading-34.html#post2443666

I quote from the article: “The dollar extended gains at the end of the month amid speculation lower crude prices will stimulate the U.S. economy while weighing on currencies of commodity-producing nations.”

Now what are the “experts” trying to tell us?

“The big bad deflationary spiral lasted all of four months,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “We expect headline inflation to accelerate to above 1 percent by year end as the depressing impact of energy prices fades,”



While reading this headline it occurred to me that Hollywood lacks real imagination when it comes to inventing scary monsters, aliens or evil villains. I would like to see a movie where earth is threatened by...DEFLATION MAN...arggghhhh!!! A man so evil...so scary...so nasty...he threatens to make prices fall by a terrifying 0.1% per year...OMG...will someone please think of the children! We all know who the “heroes” would be...and their weapon of choice...the unstoppable printing press!!


Here is a cartoon...yes(!)...a cartoon that will teach you more about economics than any modern economist ever could. You could easily believe that this has been dubbed over by an Austrian economist, but I don’t think that is the case.

Some highlights

• 0:52 The multifonic duplicator (Q.E)
• 1:50 The concern about easy money and its consequences.
• 2:00 If [money] keeps duplicating it can ruin the economy.

49,659

 

[new_trader]

The Europeans celebrate

Once Lagging Euro Region Outstrips World on Wave of Liquidity
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-euro-area-shrugs-off-risks-with-new-momentum

The euro-area economy is riding the biggest wave of liquidity since the birth of the single currency to its fastest expansion in four years.

Hooray! The Europeans have discovered the philosophers' stone!

Credit for the revival, mere weeks after talk was rife of deflation, is due in part to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s successful navigation of German opposition to quantitative easing.

Well done Draghi...navigating around those austere Germans...what would they know about inflation anyway?

“I’m really optimistic,” said Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and a former Bank of France official. “We’ve had a number of false starts in the European recovery, but this time the recovery has legs.”

The Bankers and politically connected are excited and optimistic about all the money Draghi has created out of thin air...Multifonic duplicator!

Deflation Averted

Consumer prices have ended a four-month run of declines, German unemployment continues to fall and Spain’s once crisis-addled economy grew the fastest in seven years in the first quarter. Economic confidence across the continent is near its highest since mid-2011.

People having to pay higher prices for stuff...great...so why hasn't Bloomberg included any opinions from the "man in the street"? The only people we are hearing from are Bankers...I suppose Bloomberg thinks the average person is too stupid to understand how inflation is good for them, all they do is complain about the rising cost of living.

So, if printing money is so good, why did the US Fed stop it? Too much of a good thing?


Now it's time for the Socialists and Government/Central Banker apologists to make themselves 'heard'!

Is this a "Greedy Capitalists Boom" or is this a Central Bank fuelled ARTIFICIAL INFLATIONARY BOOM that will collapse and usher in another, more disastrous recession? (AS THEY ALWAYS DO).

Don't wait until after the fact a start polluting this forum with your IDIOTIC bumper sticker slogans like "Socialism saved capitalism".

Put up or SHUT UP FOREVER!





ES @ 2090.75
GC @ 1171.6






49,840

 

[new_trader]

Lost Decade

The Global financial crisis occurred in 2008 and the Austrian economists not only forecasted it in advance, they also warned at the time that the policy response of the Central Banks and Governments will prolong the recession. Here we are in 2015 and interest rates are STILL near 0% and Central Bankers are STILL expanding the money supply. We are entering a lost decade.

Here is an excellent lecture with facts and figures, provided entirely FREE from the only economic school that actually understands economics. Watch and learn.

Contrasting Views of the Great Depression | Robert P. Murphy

49,994

 

[new_trader]

Failure of Keynesian Economics

Central Bankers Reconsider Inflation Targets They Can’t Hit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-reconsider-inflation-targets-they-can-t-hit

Central bankers are proving to be the gang that can’t shoot straight.

This was proved decades ago.

Rather than lowering their sights to make things easier, the misses are fanning calls for targets to be increased from the 2 percent most aim for to perhaps as high as 4 percent.

There you have it traders. Follow the lead of the Central Bankers...if you can't hit your profit target then the solution is to raise it higher!

Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben S. Bernanke last month suggested he would be open to an increase in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal, saying there is nothing “magical” about that number.

The Austrian economists have been saying for decades that "Inflation targeting" is bogus. They just picked an arbitrary number out of their backside and then brainwash the masses into believing that it will result in economic prosperity.

The dumbass Central Banker apologists who argued that there was something magical about 2% inflation...you look even more stupid now! Many in this forum I could name!

“One wonders how many more years of failure it will take before the consensus surrounding current inflation targets begins to rupture and more radical policy objectives are considered,”

One wonders how long it will be before EVERYONE sees what an abject failure Keynesian economics actually is. How many more years of 0% interest rates and money printing will it take before the Central Bank apologists say "It doesn't work".

There has been no real economic growth over the last 6+ years, the only thing Central Bankers have "achieved" is reinflating asset bubbles.







50,316

 

[new_trader]

What a swell "recovery" this is

Sainsbury's reports first annual loss for 10 years
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32603932

The combination of falling fuel prices and cheaper goods generally for shoppers has had an impact on supermarkets, Mr Coupe told the Today programme: "With customers having more money in their pocket, they tend to eat out rather than eating in so that has a drag on the supermarket industry."

This is absolute BS! Restaurants on the high street are closing as well, and I live in a fairly affluent area.

This article is full of reasons why supermarkets in general are losing money and none of them include "The recovery story the establishment media is peddling is completely bogus!"







50,461

 

[new_trader]

The beginning of the end?

This is an excerpt from a post I made back in Jun 9, 2014, 7:09am. The ES was @ 1950 at the time:

My figuring was 100% correct. Target hit. So much for all the Chicken Little dunces and their “Sell in May and go away” doctrine. The markets are going to the moon; Inflationary boom!
This isn’t an official forecast but I’d say this market has another +50% to go before there is any major correction. There is a kind of hubris starting to develop...just as one would expect in an inflationary boom.

Early indications from the tape are telling me that the market is at the beginning of the end of its bull market and that my above forecast of +50% might not be far off the mark. The subsequent correction/crash will be spectacular.

That will be when all the ‘meme of the day’ Queens will come crawling out of the woodwork (again) and demand a return to the gold standard or start peddling their Socialist nonsense and ‘voice’ solidarity with their comrades in another occupy movement...the ill-informed will make Capitalism the scapegoat, again




Below is another must watch video filled with facts, just in case you have the unenviable task of debating someone who thinks "a gold standard won't work because there isn't enough gold to support a growing economy" or that "a gold standard is responsible for boom and busts" and all the other Pavlovian retorts you get from someone who was educated in a Government school, or gets all their 'facts' from the establishment media.

Gold Standards: True and False | Joseph T. Salerno

ES @ 2107.75
GC @ 1187.2





50,865

 

[new_trader]

They keep doing what isn't working

UK interest rates kept at record low
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32689153

The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee comes more than six years after the record low was introduced.

Only in an Orwellian world can Central Bankers think that keeping interest rates near zero works so well that they need to keep doing it. That would be like someone saying that they have been paper trading a system for 6 years and it has proven to be so profitable that they will be going live with it sometime next year, depending on how it performs in the meantime.

Makes me wonder when are they going to drop the word 'record' from the language. After 6 years these near zero rates are becoming the norm around the globe.


ES @ 2109.00
GC @ 1190.00






51,155

 

[new_trader]

Financial Repression

Picasso Painting at $179.4 Million Sets World Auction Record
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-at-179-4-million-sets-world-auction-record

Pablo Picasso’s dynamic 1955 painting, “Les Femmes d’Alger (Version ‘‘O’’),” fetched $179.4 million, the highest price paid for any artwork at auction.

Amid surging art prices, Christie’s expects to sell as much as $1.3 billion worth of art this week in New York as part of semi-annual auctions of Impressionist, modern, postwar and contemporary art. Sellers included billionaire money manager Steven A. Cohen, casino mogul Steve Wynn and New York real estate tycoon Sheldon Solow. Bidders came from 35 countries and many entered the market in the past five years, Christie’s said.

Yet the Central Bankers still try and terrify us with the deflation bogeyman. I suppose they won't be satisfied until consumers start paying 'record' prices for their groceries.

“We are in a fantasy land out here,” said Michael Ovitz, collector and former Walt Disney Co. president, exiting the packed midtown Manhattan salesroom. “It’s unbelievable.”

You are not in fantasy land, you are in a land of fiat money controlled by Central Bankers and there is nothing unbelievable about the outcome...'Multiphonic duplicator!



Anyone who has been following my journal should not be surprised by the above story. Stocks have reached ‘record’ highs, house prices are reaching ‘record’ highs and now art is hitting ‘record’ highs. What is the common denominator? Interest rates are at ‘record’ lows. Of course none of these ‘records’ help the poor or the middle class, neither has it created economic prosperity for the wider economy. The only classes that have benefitted are the politically connected and the asset owning classes. This is the perverse consequence of Financial Repression.


ES @ 2083.50
GC @ 1194.0





51,310

 

[new_trader]

Who will be right?

[edited]

...

My take is we'll have another 3 to 4 months of respite from interest rate rises from the Fed, allowing the US recovery to gain bit more zip. Thus, E/U should continue in its climb.

....[edited]

This was posted in a trading journal and I didn't feel it would be right to reply when my journal is private. However, I feel it warrants a reply simply because it was posted by a member whose views on economics are about as diametrically opposite to mine as you can get.

A brief Summary of our core views:

1. I am a free-market Capitalist, Atilla is a Socialist.
2. I believe in sound money, Atilla believes in fiat money.
3. I subscribe to the Austrian school of economics, Atilla subscribes to the Keynesian school.

• As quoted above, Atilla is forecasting that interest rate rises will be delayed to allow the US economic recovery to gain momentum.
• I forecast that interest rate rises will be delayed because the US economy is going into recession, and that instead of rates rises they will resort to Q.E.4 which will make Q.E.3 look like Q.E.2.

ES @ 2106.25
GC @ 1217.1



51,537

 

[new_trader]

This time is different, right?

Bloomberg
Does the Collapse of a Chinese Developer Signal the Start of More Defaults?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-now-official-who-s-next-becomes-key-question

http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Malinvestment


Don't think this can't happen in Britain. I know there is exists an attitude of “You can’t lose with prop-uh-ee”, but I think the seeds for the next collapse are being sown in this artificial boom. I see cranes everywhere building stuff...shopping mall expansions, residential properties or business expansion. I see cranes everywhere when I take a trip to London and I bet if you looked around where you live you will see cranes everywhere too.

The policies of Central Bankers and Governments have turned a Recession into a Depression.​

London Developers Increase Their Bets on Future Office Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-increase-their-bets-on-future-office-demand

Central London developers are increasingly willing to start office construction without tenants in place, betting that today’s surging demand won’t fade.

Companies started 31 projects in the six months through March, the second-highest amount in 20 years, according to a survey by Deloitte LLP. Of those, 22 had no tenants at the outset. New construction jumped by 24 percent.

What a spectacular Inflationary boom this is...stocks, art, prop-uh-ee...Multiphonic Duplicator...nothing can go wrong!



Who'd have thunk it?



ES @ 2128.25
GC @ 1222.3





51,877