equities looking crashtastic

[ChocolateDigestive]

Is it me or do the FTSE/DAX/EUROSTOXX markets appear to be defying gravity at the moment?

It just seems as though the same underlying problems are there but markets keep pushing up, I smell danger ahead. Maybe darker forces are at play??

I was chatting to a seasoned US stock trader yesterday, he was telling me about how the SPY suddenly went 'hard to borrow' in the couple of days prior to the US downgrade, that has more than a whiff about it.

Yesterday I tried to short exxon and it was on the 'hard to borrow' list, meaning I couldnt borrow the stock to short it. totally bizarre given that it's a monster stock and is always there to borrow.

have heard a few people in the industry say it's looking a little 'flash crashy'. ho hum. trade what you see I guess.

 

[rsh01]

its summer volumes 2/3 of the city/Cbs/politicians are on hols. it could go either up or down very easily over next couple of weeks. imo equities will go up more to squeeze all the dumb retailers who have shorted it cos 'its too high' (let the deadbrokes et al trade like this). 80%-85% net short ftse/dow/s&p on IG.

and the higher it goes the further it falls & the more chance (maybe) you get to jump on the back of it when it does dump.

look at & trade price, & ignore what you think should or should not happen.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

its summer volumes 2/3 of the city/Cbs/politicians are on hols. it could go either up or down very easily over next couple of weeks. imo equities will go up more to squeeze all the dumb retailers who have shorted it cos 'its too high'. 80%-85% net short ftse/dow/s&p on IG.

and the higher it goes the further it falls & the more chance (maybe) you get to jump on the back of it when it does dump.

look at & trade price, & ignore what you think should or should not happen.

good analysis rsh. do IG publish there net positions on their website? would be useful to know where the retail money is

 

[rsh01]

good analysis rsh. do IG publish there net positions on their website? would be useful to know where the retail money is

yes, they include it all in a fairly new section "IG insight" which collates info from all sorts of sources thomson reuters etc, as well as some useful analysis of their own customers. its a shame they dont have the vols but that wld be giving away far too much info to others i suppose - it does say '501+ clients have open positions' (this relates to ftse).

Not sure if you can access it without an account, i always go via the platform button in top right. this is part of ftse page:

https://marketanalysis.igindex.co.uk/marketanalysis/indices/FT100/

 

[Hoggums]

My advice is never try to second guess market direction during a holiday period where the volume is light.

Burnt fingers and all that...

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Financial institutions have had all sorts of regulatory and structural nonsense priced in, oil is sticky down, real estate is yesteryears news yet and dividends are still being paid. On top of that, parking money in sovereigns is tantamount to betting on a euro solution. Gotta get your yield somewhere...

 

[DionysusToast]

It's all relative. We aren't at record highs, just 4 year highs. It feels high but it really isn't.

Sure - the economy is w@nk. On the other hand, it's an election year.

No point trying to guess which way it'll go because the arguments for & against are both convincing to me.

The more people are scared of the highs,the more chance it has of busting through.

ES 1500 by the year end IMO.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

There's no risk until they announce in FT, Bloomberg, and other similar places that the market need a correction. Most people reading it won't know what it is about. But the insiders will know it's a signal to synchronise the watches. Believe it or not, crashing the market take concerted effort. This is why the watches need to be synchronised before hand.

FTSE is only about 10% higher than the most recent low. I reckon it needs to be 20% higher to make it worth selling by the insiders.

 

[R.Charnock]

Pleased to see I'm not the only one who thinks the markets are crazily optimistic. Something to do with US election, maybe? Probably need a couple of 2-3% drop days before the final manipulation pump, putting the Dow at 14K plus.