HoodTrader
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Tony Blair is leaving in May I know that 
eek
Junior member
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local elections are in May.
In the UK parliament is elected for a maximum of 5 years but a general election can be called at any time with a minimum of 4 weeks notice (we don't have the fixed dates the US and France have).
The latest that this parliament can go on until is May 2010 but you can expect an election sometime in 2009/10 depending on the likelyhood of the current government winning.
In the UK parliament is elected for a maximum of 5 years but a general election can be called at any time with a minimum of 4 weeks notice (we don't have the fixed dates the US and France have).
The latest that this parliament can go on until is May 2010 but you can expect an election sometime in 2009/10 depending on the likelyhood of the current government winning.
NotQuiteRandom
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I have several positions on British politics (and several more on US politics) at Intrade.com.
The site lets you post your own odds in an exchange style fashion on financial markets, political, legal and other current events. 2 which have gone my way recently are (in the US) Giuliani for Republican presidential nominee and a short position on Gordon Brown for next PM who I think was way over priced at 80%, I expect he will win but thought 80% to be overdone given the whole Milburn scenario.
I prefer this type of election trading to the indirect version through the markets as you can lay prices (no spread) and be certain of the correlation between price and event.
The site lets you post your own odds in an exchange style fashion on financial markets, political, legal and other current events. 2 which have gone my way recently are (in the US) Giuliani for Republican presidential nominee and a short position on Gordon Brown for next PM who I think was way over priced at 80%, I expect he will win but thought 80% to be overdone given the whole Milburn scenario.
I prefer this type of election trading to the indirect version through the markets as you can lay prices (no spread) and be certain of the correlation between price and event.
NotQuiteRandom
Well-known member
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I don't doubt your claim; however you can be more sure that the binary election contracts traded on Intrade will move in a more predictable manor (up or down) as a function of the outcome of the event.
If you wish to speculate on an event I don't understand why you wouldn't do it directly where possible.
If you wish to speculate on an event I don't understand why you wouldn't do it directly where possible.
