Dow Jones - Elliott Waves

[BigInTheCity]

Hi All

I was wondering if anyone trades the Dow and uses elliott waves to forecast the market?

You can check out an interesting article that talks about the Dow reaching sub 1000 levels

http://www.parsintl.com/pdf/5711-BM-ElliotWave.pdf

Thank you

 

[RogerM]

Prechter has been banging on about this for years, and has been likened to a prophet sitting on the side of a placid lake waiting for a tidal wave to come in. He may be right, and EW is certainly a useful tool in the short term as well as providing a framework for the longer term. But I find that the more I swing trade using EW the less I make as alternative wavecounts are brought into play as one set of counts fails.

I have posted the chart below before, but is worth repeating as it does tend to support Prechter independently in projecting sub 3000 for the Dow. The danger from a trading perspective is in expecting these things to unfold to order, and in a straight line. Even Prechter will readily admit that there will be substantial rallies lasting for many months in any eventual slide down to sub 1000, and if you get the wrong side of these rallies with a geared position, it will be academic for you because the move will be enough to wipe you out if you take an entrenched view about it.

 

[waqr]

Hi All

I was wondering if anyone trades the Dow and uses elliott waves to forecast the market?

You can check out an interesting article that talks about the Dow reaching sub 1000 levels

http://www.parsintl.com/pdf/5711-BM-ElliotWave.pdf

Thank you

If you are going to make predictions then make sure that they are outrageous enough for people to discuss them.

This Prechter fellow should be taken as seriously as your horoscope in a daily newspaper.

 

[sidinuk]

when America finally owns up and declares itself bankrupt then perhaps the dow will have a chance to drop that far. Until then the 'Plunge Protection Team' will continue to create a completely false market with the Fed continually printing vast sums of money to hand straight to investors.

 

[RogerM]

sidinuk - and that is one reason why I take the EW predictions with a pinch of salt. Although you can't buck the market in the long term, it can certainly be manipulated in the short term. Personally I think in the longer term the US is a basket case.

If you just trade what you see, then it really doesn't matter whether Prechter is right or wrong - you'll still keep the right side of the move.

 

[sidinuk]

That's quite right, It's good fun making predictions about the future but that's all it is fun. No-one should trade off what they think might happen at some time in the future, just what is happening. Saying that, tomorrow is the 29 July so sell everything the end is nigh.

 

[waqr]

when America finally owns up and declares itself bankrupt then perhaps the dow will have a chance to drop that far. Until then the 'Plunge Protection Team' will continue to create a completely false market with the Fed continually printing vast sums of money to hand straight to investors.

America bankrupt ? what utter nonsense. I suppose you think that it will be good for the world if the dow trades below 1000?