I have to say this, there is always an element of luck plus an element of skill od judgement. Remember that I analyse these charts AFTER the event and so some things look like magic or clever. It's neither of these. Sometimes you see things differently, as shown above, sometimes you don't see them at all, including myself, until after the event, at which point it becomes so obvious you just wonder what you were doing!
No one knows what the next tick will produce or what the next triangle b/o will produce. More often than not, a good setup will produce the expected result, sometimes not. That's why we need stops. Calling these moves in real time, with the stress and expectation of a profit is totally demanding and will often lead to mistakes and "misses" or wrong calls. I am perhaps a little more fortunate than some, in as much as I do not trade for a living, nor do I HAVE to make a profit. Therefor my trading approach is more relaxed than the average trader and I find that my concentration level is higher because of that. I envy any trader that is able to deliver consistent profits, whatever they trade. I thought I caught a nice b/o today at 979.5, but it bumbled around for an hour and I closed for a measly two points. Yesterday it was a 100 ( 9 points on ES). Not going to be any big moves today so I'm just watching without any expectation.
So Mombasa, your entry was skilled, lucky and safe.
The risk was 20 points below the 100 MA, the reward was 80 points so 4:1 most excellent. As it was, your theoretical ratio was almost 6:1.
