Dow Intraday charts 24/06 - 28/06

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Great trading day again. Staying short from the open , under the 100MA, and, hopefully closing at the PD bottom, and soon after reversing to go long, at the latest at 9230 when the PD bottom got confirmed by breaking through the 100MA. Riding the rise was really easy as the rally was so strong, it was way ahead of the 100MA, at times over 100 points. The get out was strange too. The obvious out, to plan, was at the third peak on the nd top. This was not to be the final top though, but for 180 points in 70 minutes, who cares?. I can offer no explanation for the extra bump, except perhaps the shear strength of the rally. A possibility here is to analyse further the distance of the 3rd peak away from the 100MA. Is there a value that says there will be one more push? The value today was +100. ie the 100MA was at 9206 when the final peak was at 9307. Or would it be the difference on what would /should have been the final low break point? That was +60.......The final peak at 9370 developed into a bear triangle that went on to perform to target. Hardly surprising...The day has finished off 4 points below the 100MA, and with an inverse head & shoulders in sight. Being in uptrend mode,I'll put my Bull hat on and say we move on up from here, as the Inv. H&S should perform......9312 should turn out to be the "safe entry".
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Well, we did move up a bit, but that's about it.Yesterday's long entry suggestion would have been ok if we hadn't "gapped up" on the futures, leaving little room to go long before the drop and bounce 10 off the 100MA at 9336. The top at 9409 was in negative divergence from the off. whether you took that one or the third peak at 06 was tricky....This was followed by a drop through the 100MA that would have prompted a short enrty and been rewarded for those with nerves...as the following bear flag rose 30 points above that entry.Nice whipsaw for some - nodoubt. The real short entry came as the bear flag dropped out of its channel at 9376, right on the 100MA. From there it was an easy ride downhill all the way to 9110- if you had the bottle! But the chart stayed well below the 100MA all the way down so it should have been a case of stick to the rule :) The first flag gave a target of 154 that was met. In the mean time there was a second bear flag that gave a target of 9123. So theoretically a nice easy 250 points....Even the Tea Time brigade could have got 150 points from 7pm...
I see there are four slope changes in the down trend. Will that be enough to stop the drop? With RSI going to 10 it would seem that it could not go lower, but then that's what was said when MONI was 99p :)
Let's see what tomorrow brings.....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Tomorrow brought disaster by way of WorldCom's $4 Bn. account "hole".... As it turned out, whilst "screwing" TA because of the 250 point futures drop overnight, we ended up with a whole host of excellent trading opportunities. Even the Tea Time brigade could have got 200+ points by picking up the PD bottom....Things soon settled down from the open tank with a double bottom at 8945 (-180). The first real trading opportunity came from the bull triangle that gave a target of 9090 that was just about reached. Entry was could have been at 8954/66 for the gamble on the third low, or at 9000 on the 100MA break. The first 100MA break didn't go, and going long there should have been very quickly confirmed as a mistake and forced a close. The second one however went the distance.Taking the first break and closing the false break could have prompted another try at the secong gamble long entry...Either way, the target was met,just, and because of the steep rise, it should have prompted a reversal soon after the top. Failing that, the H&S should have promted a get out at the pullback at 9046.... Safe entry for the short was at the 100MA break, following a couple of bounces off the 100MA. Tracking that , there was an Inv. H&S that just broke the 100MA , possibly prompting a close, but bounced off hor. resistance at 21. Then came the 3 pk PD bottom..not confirmed by CCI, but preceded by an RS switch, helping confirm the bottom at 8927 and signalling entry for the Tea Time traders. Safe entry was 50 points later as the price crossed the 100MA, quite a long way off the bottom due to the steep decline in the PD run. 100MA break was quickly confirmed by a short pullback to the 100 before shooting off again. I guess at this point no-one would have forseen a 230 point rally off the bottom....The bull flag produced a target of 9107, quite unbelievable, but it made it - and more! 160 points in 15 minutes. The fact that we were 65 points above the 100 should have given you the courage to hold, in anticipation of the bull flag resolution... I got caught for an early close at the small pullback just before target but was happy enough with my total. I went long again as I saw it had more legs. Given the huge rise in such a short time, I was expecting a good reversal, but got it the second time, just off the peak at 154 and did a quick reversal for another 37 odd points. Great rally :) Certainly a rare ocaision... Given the recovery from what appeared to be endless down, maybe there will be more tomorrow.....To catch today's action , I have not included yesterday's part of the chart. The far left starts at 14:34...
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Another good day's trading, but some tricky areas...It took 90 minutes to resolve the open, finally breaking to the downside on the 100MA. The three cycles during that time had enough movement to be just about tradeable....but not for me.The first opportunity was the 100 break short at 9140, target 9064.The bottom was a hard call with just a 2pk pd and just reaching horizontal support at 9038. The next bit was tricky, running the 100MA nad producung 2 whipsaws before breaking to the upside.The break was confirmed by a pullback to just above the 100 at 9090, before flying off, ending in a 3 pk ND top at 9255 for a 165 point gain. That was followed by a steep drop to 9154 and an Inv. H&S bottom, finally rising to close at HOD of 9270.Some good point to be had today for the 7pm brigade too, picking up on the ND top.... Notice the extreme ranges of RSI and CCI- not often seen, and a good help to pick the tops and bottoms at the moment.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
A reasonable trading day, but with a piggy in the middle, by way of a 100MA whipsaw area. This was finally resolved with the H&S top, dropping through the 100MA to provide a safe entry for the short. That rode down the 100MA to close at 9239 down 10 on the day. A long way off recent volatility....
 

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neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
Chart above re the RSI + CCI

Chartman


I notice you have marked divergence between the falling Dow and rising RSI and CCI.

Does this divergence imply a rise in the Dow short term?
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Intraday, most certainly. The problem arises, as in this case, where the divergence terminates at the end of the day. The is NO guarantee that the follow on will be contiguous. If the DOW does not "GAP" by more than,say, 20 or so points on Monday, then it may well prove indicative.
 
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