Nothing special again today, but there is a solid move up that will/may lead to better things. I suppose the climb off the bottom at 8260 to the top was good, but staying in would have proved difficult.Having said that, most of the drops were lesss than 20 points so those with reasonable width stops and a longer term view may have caught the bulk of the move. Today was definitely not a day for scalpers with most moves around 40 odd points at best. The most interesting thing for today was the failure of the H&S at the end of the day, signalling a Bear failure and therefore more upside.The weakness of the move can be seen by the lack of movement in the final push in CCI from 0 to 270 only moving the price 50 odd points.
The answers were all there to see. You just had to pick the right one..... Yesterday looked good, and the overnight flyer to 8470 could have made you think we're on a bull roll...Trouble is, along with that was the apparent weakness metioned in CCI. Then reality comes in and it all goes pear shaped. Not content with that, we get a Bear Flag right in the middle, and a major tank on the industrial output news. The next descision is to decide what to use as the length of the Bear Flag "pole". Yesterday's close, or the overnight peak at 8478? The former has been met, just; the latter would have another 100 point drop to go.
Nice PD bottom to get the longs off, even picking the third trough would have got you in 5 points off the bottom. The following Bear Flag took 4 cycles to complete instead of the usual 3 before finally dropping.The SR Switch trend line should have helped decide direction along the way.
Nice PD bottom to get the longs off, even picking the third trough would have got you in 5 points off the bottom. The following Bear Flag took 4 cycles to complete instead of the usual 3 before finally dropping.The SR Switch trend line should have helped decide direction along the way.
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Flag pole lesson. Take the highest recent peak , not the nearest one. Yesterday's peak pole length gave a target of 8067 and that's where we ended up today.The open drop was ended with a good divergence on RSI. It's a long time since we have had clear cut 3 pk PD's or ND's confirmed by RSI and CCI. Of late we seen to be getting just RSI or CCI . We can see today the PD bottom was again a 4 trough affair, and the ND top was only seen in CCI.We had another RS switch to go with the PD bottom again too. These switches are becoming very common....The first bull triangle on RSI confirmed the coming upside, but was never continued in a series of higher highs in RSI. In fact, from 5pm on, RSI never made any signs of confirming the uptrend and so the inevitable hapened- the failed Bull Flag and the ND in CCI called the day.Not a bad day's trading in all with most of the action well clear of the 100 MA and a good opportunity, for a change, for the T-Time traders, getting a good shot at the 100+ points on offer.
After hours ,the dow has tanked back to the base line at 8070.
Still very unpredictable territory......
After hours ,the dow has tanked back to the base line at 8070.
Still very unpredictable territory......
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The overnight drop was carried through to the open and a difficult early session followed, developing, eventualy, into a triangle breakout. That, unsurprisingly, was short lived. We can clearly see the weakness, by correlating the peak in CCI to the price rise. The same thing happened later around 7:30 with the peak in RSI from 20 to 70 only moving the price 40 odd points. As a rule of thumb, if a one point rise in RSI = a one point rise in the price, then the move is weak... Another good clue to the weakness was the SR switch with RSI failing to break its uptrend resistance. Trading the 100MA would have proved another profitable day, with very little in the way of whipsaws at the 100MA.
No sign of divergences in any timescales, so barring a miracle, I guess it's going to be more of the same tomorrow. After hours , the dow is just coming off 7920... 9:50pm.
No sign of divergences in any timescales, so barring a miracle, I guess it's going to be more of the same tomorrow. After hours , the dow is just coming off 7920... 9:50pm.
