Dow Intraday charts 08/09 12/09

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
A slightly modified set of tramlines to reflect the last 2 days move.The Inv. H&S has failed to deliver it's target of 9620, but will it try again tomorrow? Channel resistance bounce today may take us to support tomorrow at 9530 ish. Watch that line...and the breakout to the up side at 9630 ish.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
A tricky, messy day. Nice target off the open triangle to give T1 and no less than 4 ND tops. After the opening 90 odd points, it was a case of flat all the way and beware of getting whipsawed. RSI showed up weakness in buth the up moves and the down moves. 9600+ for a long and 9563- for a short... Don't forget the 10 min uptrend support line....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Channel support lost straight away and now it's guess work as to the next move. Coming off lows on RSI looks the flavour of the day tomorrow, but could easily test 9450.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Clear to guage the strength and weakness in RSI today, with about 2:1 the difference in favour of the down moves- 20 point drops and 10 point rises for the save movement in RSI. Two decent trades to be had, though, First a long off uptrend support bounce at 9520, closing on the near perfect ND top around 70. Weakness in RSI suggesting a reversal off the top would be a fair bet.... and staying short into the close. Not many points to be had, but relatively relaxing day with no surprises to make you sweat over a position, assuming you got it right....
 

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mombasa

Established member
561 1
Hi CM,

Some uestions for u :

1 - Any reason not to go long on the dbl bottom between abt 2.45 and 3.00? There was divergence as well so I was thinking about it but luckily I didn't on the basis that there may have been a bear flag forming. I did go short on the pullback at 9530 but covered on target failure. If there was a case to go long on the dbl bottom when would have the safest to do so?

2 - Spotted the inv h&s on the bounce of support but was too chicken to go long (must admit wasn't sure where support was - must get that sorted - thx for drawing s/r lines on the charts). Instead went short at the pullback from 100 EMA at 16.45 - obviously a mistake - covered at 100EMA + 20. Once again, what was my mistake? What would have stopped you from going short if u weren't long already? Or is it the long entry that would have been the overriding factor?

3 - Went long at the same time as the short cover - spotted the tripple top and divergence, covered, went short - got fed up and nervous at the sideways move and closed for a few points. Have realised that if I get my first move of the day wrong, I try to play catchup, get nervous, make mistakes and become impatient. I think it's back to waiting for really good setups - unfortunately it's not that common in this market.

Cheers
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
The open divergence has a high risk of failure and the opening half hour is the hardest to trade, but also has some high rewards. It also has high losses......if you get it wrong.
Why not long on the dbl. bottom? because Monday's support of around 9560 was lost at the open .Going long at 9540 gives a 20 point gain on a R/R basis, less 20 point bias in/out= immediate loss.
I can't see your point of No. 2 - when did the price go 100MA +20???? It just "touched" +20 at 16:45....
Yesterday was not easy, with the exception of the ND top for an out, and a chance reversal on apparent weakness, that happened to pay dividends.
You are right to walk away if you get the first rtade wrong. Your self obsevations are correct. DON'T chase a lost trade. Clear the air, walk away,have a cuppa, do something but not a chaser trade. Turn off your trading platform ( remove the temptation) look at the charts, 1 min, 2 min 10 min. Get it clear in your mind just where S&R 's are, both horizontal AND channels.
 

mombasa

Established member
561 1
Thx CM - oops for no 2 I meant I went short on the 100MA at 15.45 pullback and then when it broke through and went up to 100MA +20 at 16.45ish I covered. So, what was wrong about the short entry?

Cheers
 

Bill

Active member
160 1
Mombasa and Chartman

Excuse me for butting in.

I fell into a similar trap yesterday but went short a about 16:15, the dip after mombasa. It seemed to meet the requirement of a break of 100ema then a pullback towards the ema line so I gave it a go with similar results to mombasa.

When I looked it later the price seemed to be bouncing of the 9540 line which I presume formed some sort of support. I put the failure down to inexperience. So I suppose the question is how do I work out where support/resistance will come. I have looked at pivot points and they do not seem to work [for me anyway].

Thanks and keep posting.
 

mombasa

Established member
561 1
Phew - I wasn't the only one then :)

CM, on a similar tack to wj, where does the 9450 support u mention come from - have looked at various charts and can't seem to see the line.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Look at Monday's open. 9540 testing. Look at the Thurday and Friday before that- 9540 tested a lot for support. 5
Remember that support becomes resistance and vice verca.
9560 too is supp/res.
Today, 9510/9532 + 9460 bottoms.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Get ready at 9500/9510.... enter at 10 break ( next minor resistance). Don't get too exited we're still in a very narrow range so half stake, double stop distance is the way.Seems we'll be testing 9460 tho.
 
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