Dow Intraday charts 08/04 12/04

ChartMan

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Not a lot to show for today, except perhaps the importance of Fib retracements. Today they provided excelent support and resistance points....tomorrow we should look to 244 for immediate support.
 

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244 gave support , once, then lost it, with a final bounce off 62% near the close...Maybe tomorrow will be a little more interesting.
 

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How interesting do you want :) The main bull flag ( seen on 5 min chart) give 450 target . Today's bull flag gives 440 target. 3 slope change signals a possible end of rally, but the 3rd slope change is minor...wait and see...I would think a pullback to the 3rd or 2nd slope line as support wouldn't be unreasonable.Pulling back to the second line gives more scope for continuity of the trend.on the other hand, it could just be that there is a 4th slope change developing, and that will surely signal the end....tomorrow will tell.
 

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Well, the 4th slope change had signalled the end, although it came prematurely in my mind, but there we are. The other thing ( that I chose to ignore) was the regression line on the 10 min chart. I sometime look at it as an indication as to where things ought to be. At yesterday's close it was at 220........That will teach me not to ignore the significance of regression. It the line is too far away from the price, there is only one,inevitable, outcome. It's the same effect as the 100MA I suppose, in that it acts like a "magnet" to the price.
The Inverse H&S at 244 seemed to work, almost, signalling that 250 may have been a solid support bounce but it failed to go beyond target of 288,falling short at 285.That signalled more down, followed shortly by the 10 min H&S top reaching descision point at 248 and continuing on down to target at 220.
It seems that there have been no "confirmed" 3 pk divergent tops or bottoms for a while although there was a 2 pk bottom at 216 leading to a swift 32 point rise....
Footnote: not easy to see but there were 3 slope changes today, the final one being the drop from 200 to 155...
 

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