Dow 30 stocks down today, but on low volume, after being up 4 days, what you think?

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BillSimmons

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Dow 30 stocks down today, but on low volume, after being up 4 days, what you think will happen the remainder of this week, as well as next week and why?
 
Market is weak but this is seasonal in my opinion. Unless we drop down below 11,555 this market is only going to go up or side ways.

I say in a month or two we should see a real push towards the upside to resume the bull run provided it stays above 11,555.

Its good just to wait out for the easy money. September to April are good times to make money in a bull market.
 
To me it looks like the market can go at least a couple hundred points up in the short term, before either turning down or going higher up.
 
BillSimmons said:
To me it looks like the market can go at least a couple hundred points up in the short term, before either turning down or going higher up.
Click to expand...

I think it will accelerate to the downside, will eventually end up well below 4000...........
 
After todays market action, I am bullish on the market. It has shown a lot of resilience. It might show some more correction side ways or bit to the downside but my bias is towards the upside.
 
As for the dow. I see declines soon due to sentiment extremes the DSI over 90% in may. Whats even more mind blowing is the percentage of cash in money managers portfolios we are almost at all time lows with the current percentage being 3.5% (2008 all time low at 3.4%) This means that money managers are overly bullish on stocks with there cash percentage being equal to or even lower than those that coincided with historic peaks in the market going back to 1929! what happens at such extremes a revisit to 2008 to say the least. My answer to those that say that this is a 'young' bull market and has years to go is this '-__-'. Now looking at this very same cash percentage analysis at major stock market bottoms going back to the 1932 lows it has come to my observation that at major lows money managers held about 10+% cash. Are we close to that level today? Did we get to those levels in the march 2009 lows? The answer is not only NO, but not even close. So a case can be made based on this data alone that the bear market that started in 2007 (some say 2000 with (the burst of the tech bubble) even though we made it to new highs) still has more to go as the money managers psychology hasnt met the requirments for a major bear market low. Now from a probability point of view the dow could (but need not) exceed its 2011 high by a small marjin but it would be a rally on low volume and low momentum which would support the bearish outlook from a technical basis. We do have long term technical patterns that forecast a much lower dow the least bearish one i can think of sees the dow well bellow 10,000. Even though we might make a slight new high on a yearly basis (i personally dont think so) the plunge will arrive and it will take everyone by surprise. Everyone who hasnt read this piece of course. So my humble oppinion would be to get out safe and sound rather than sorry.

Thanks
Ahmed Farghaly
 
up

bid 12100, stop 12050, tp 1250 (i might be a bit too soon, but ill give it a shot) -
 

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safvan said:
After todays market action, I am bullish on the market. It has shown a lot of resilience. It might show some more correction side ways or bit to the downside but my bias is towards the upside.
Click to expand...

Yep, if we can beat the last lower high a lot of signs are pointing for another run.
 
BillSimmons said:
Yep, if we can beat the last lower high a lot of signs are pointing for another run.
Click to expand...

The market wants to go up. One bad news after another but the markets keep resisting it.

We will know in a few days to a few weeks. If it can handle this wave of bad news then the upside has a good potential. Good money is made on the upside.
 
afarghaly9 said:
rather than betting on the markets direction I'll bet that jahdave is an elliott wave analyst :)
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I know you are correct there brother. The minimum that the dow can go down is below the 6500, and it will surely go below that. If you haven't noticed yet, I have an Elliott Wave Thread here.........
 
Also, has anyone noticed yet that we are in a worldwide DEPRESSION!!!!!!! I read on my Yahoo home page last week that the housing collapse is already worse than the great depression by 3 percent, and we are not close to a bottom yet..........Also, the muni bond markets are in a huge bubble..............these cities and counties have taken on huge amounts of debt that they cannot possibly repay with declining tax revenues............Even Bernanke had to admit today that things are much deeper and worse than the Fed thought..............And my last point is that the unemployment numbers came in much worse than expected..............The US government does not even count the people that have exhausted their benefits or the people that don't report anymore, or the underemployed............What a joke.............I suspect the real number to be about triple what the government admits.
 
and amongst all that bad economic data stated by jahdave the stock market had a terrific run which was institutional based while the household demand for stocks declined the market rallied there is divergence which shows that the rallies post march 2009 was based on hope as the 'wall street' economy isolated itself from the real underlying economy which is exactly what happened in 1928-1929 period. the economy slowed down in the first quarter of 1928 while the stock market was blowing off like never seen in history at that time. Shoe shine boys were giving stock tips in 1929, which brings me to the people that have no idea what they're talking about saying that this is a 'young' bull market

Ahmed Farghaly
 
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stopped out - 50 points (£1 per point)

did say i thought i might be a bit quick jumping on, still think thats a good pin with a " CLEAR REJECTION of support going back some distance -

view still to the upside -
 
theroguetrader said:
stopped out - 50 points (£1 per point)

did say i thought i might be a bit quick jumping on, still think thats a good pin with a " CLEAR REJECTION of support going back some distance -

view still to the upside -
Click to expand...

I dont think this can push upwards without a big correction to the downside. If we don't get that sharp decline, then i think we're in a bear market for sure. QE2 finishes at the end of this month. I think that will be a negative as well as OTC gold banned in the US.
 
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