Dow 2008

[firewalker99]

Hi Apart from DJI itself, what do you normally look out for when you say bearish or bullish? Put call ratio or open interest or any outside external readings.. Anybody has any idea?? thanks

None of those, you only look at the chart. Why would you go search for "external readings" if all that matters can be seen in the patterns price paints?

 

[jm99]

monthly spx

re the monthly value zone, strictly speaking the vz that has supported the last two bull mrks was breached today. The last time it was penetrated by this degree was oct 2000 For spooz, the daily system trend filter now flips to shorts if we continue to trade below. will remain long for as long as the low holds. Could be a few whips either way, as in 2000.

 

[leovirgo]

None of those, you only look at the chart. Why would you go search for "external readings" if all that matters can be seen in the patterns price paints?

Well, the more evidence on your side, the better it is. Isn't it? I dare not short every H&S pattern. Would you? I guess I might need to join your private forum to see how you trade.

 

[dc2000]

Hi Apart from DJI itself, what do you normally look out for when you say bearish or bullish? Put call ratio or open interest or any outside external readings.. Anybody has any idea?? thanks

put call can be used for shorter term trading along with the tick and trin for longer term larger investors in the COT not the commercial

 

[firewalker99]

Well, the more evidence on your side, the better it is. Isn't it? I dare not short every H&S pattern. Would you? I guess I might need to join your private forum to see how you trade.

Or you could go through the +100 live calls I made over the last 6 months and check out all the annotated charts I posted. I've even given away the basic fundamentals & rules for my system for free. It's all here on T2W for everybody to see. Why some people start acting like it's all one big mystery when you ask them why they took a trade, I'll never understand.

 

[Snownation]

Did i not notice a continuation h&s pattern in the dow daily?, meaning that speculators should go long from here on.

 

[firewalker99]

I dare not short every H&S pattern. Would you? I guess I might need to join your private forum to see how you trade.

Suppose your plan says to short every H&S pattern on a 1-minute timeframe on the break of the neckline. Then how are you going to determine in real-time if the next occurence will be a profitable or losing trade? You can't. So you either refine your plan by defining extra parameters to make sure your trades have a higher degree of success or you continue to take every pattern. Remember, even a system that wins only 30% of the time can be profitable.

 

[dc2000]

right then my plan is to buy FTSE @208 and Dow @520

 

[dc2000]

and yes I am currently short both indices for the moment

 

[Dinos]

Chilltrader, nobody answered your question about "locked in" profits.

eg: in simple terms you take a long position @ 6000, say the value rose to 6050, you set a sell order @ eg: 6020, therefore "locking in" (+20) points, your then on a free trade, no matter what, you have a winning situation, if the price falls and hits you sell, the position is closed, if it continues along the path you thought, you can cancel and move the sell to lock in more.

Hope that makes sense

 

[chilltrader]

Chilltrader, nobody answered your question about "locked in" profits.

eg: in simple terms you take a long position @ 6000, say the value rose to 6050, you set a sell order @ eg: 6020, therefore "locking in" (+20) points, your then on a free trade, no matter what, you have a winning situation, if the price falls and hits you sell, the position is closed, if it continues along the path you thought, you can cancel and move the sell to lock in more.

Hope that makes sense

Thanks Dinos. Makes sense. But how do you determine where you lock it then? Is it some pre-determined amount of profit which you are happy to take or something more sinister?

 

[dc2000]

now looking for FTSE @219 Dow still the same

 

[firewalker99]

Thanks Dinos. Makes sense. But how do you determine where you lock it then? Is it some pre-determined amount of profit which you are happy to take or something more sinister?

Lots of possibilities here. All depends on what you've tested and what suits your timeframe, your style, your goal.

For example, you could move the stop to lock in profits:
- when price moves x points in the favourable direction
- when price moves x times the ATR in your direction
- after each swing up or down (depending on the direction of your trade)
- after a certain amount of time
- the minute you see a very wide range bar
- after a huge volume peak
- on the break of a trendline
- when a MA crosses over again
- when your stocs or any other indicator gives a signal
etc, etc,...

All of the above are just examples, there are so many ways and this one or that one isn't necessarily better than another.

There are many possibilities. For instance, if you tested a certain pattern and you know that on average it moves 60 points before retracing 1/3rd and then continuining to 100 points. In this case, you could lock in profits at set a stop slightly below 40 after price traveled around 60 points.

 

[dc2000]

Thanks Dinos. Makes sense. But how do you determine where you lock it then? Is it some pre-determined amount of profit which you are happy to take or something more sinister?

personally I like to lock in just below half the move as long as the move was more than one third the previous days daily range, if you take the FTSE this morning the initial move from 8:11 to 8:52 saw a pullback to half and the move from 8:11 to 9:32 has just seen a pull back to half so I would set a profit lock in currently @6288

 

[leovirgo]

Or you could go through the +100 live calls I made over the last 6 months and check out all the annotated charts I posted. I've even given away the basic fundamentals & rules for my system for free. It's all here on T2W for everybody to see. Why some people start acting like it's all one big mystery when you ask them why they took a trade, I'll never understand.

That would be great if you let me in. I have learnt alot from Grey1 in his TT and I hope to do the same with yours. My initial question was if there were any broadbased indicators which might indicate future market direction for say 1-5 days ahead. I know that we can look at weekly, daily, hourly charts and prepare a list of possibilities from there- weekly bulll/bear/range, daily confirmation and hourly entry etc. For DOW/S&P, my observation is that they are leading the whole market. A large % of stocks are affected by their movements. I use DOW as the leading indicator and trade stocks accordingly. But for DOW/S&P, I want to find the same concept if there is any- GDP, interest rate, put call ratio etc, I am not sure. Or, are they 'the real' market leading indicators and we should go with the flow i.e trade what you see ? What do you all think?

 

[firewalker99]

That would be great if you let me in. I have learnt alot from Grey1 in his TT and I hope to do the same with yours. My initial question was if there were any broadbased indicators which might indicate future market direction for say 1-5 days ahead. I know that we can look at weekly, daily, hourly charts and prepare a list of possibilities from there- weekly bulll/bear/range, daily confirmation and hourly entry etc. For DOW/S&P, my observation is that they are leading the whole market. A large % of stocks are affected by their movements. I use DOW as the leading indicator and trade stocks accordingly. But for DOW/S&P, I want to find the same concept if there is any- GDP, interest rate, put call ratio etc, I am not sure. Or, are they 'the real' market leading indicators and we should go with the flow i.e trade what you see ? What do you all think?

For sure some stocks have a tendency to follow the movements of the DOW or S&P. Most of them are, after all, a part of what the index is made of. And then there is the correlation that often occurs between different markets. For example small-caps versus mid-caps or European versus American indices. Sounds to like you are looking for something like one single unique leading indicator to guide your way. And if there were such a thing, wouldn't you want to know why that particular instrument is leading the others?

Edit: It just came to me, there is such an indicator. It is called price

 

[dc2000]

out of shorts and on sidelines for now

 

[chilltrader]

Lots of possibilities here. All depends on what you've tested and what suits your timeframe, your style, your goal.

For example, you could move the stop to lock in profits:
- when price moves x points in the favourable direction
- when price moves x times the ATR in your direction
- after each swing up or down (depending on the direction of your trade)
- after a certain amount of time
- the minute you see a very wide range bar
- after a huge volume peak
- on the break of a trendline
- when a MA crosses over again
- when your stocs or any other indicator gives a signal
etc, etc,...

All of the above are just examples, there are so many ways and this one or that one isn't necessarily better than another.

There are many possibilities. For instance, if you tested a certain pattern and you know that on average it moves 60 points before retracing 1/3rd and then continuining to 100 points. In this case, you could lock in profits at set a stop slightly below 40 after price traveled around 60 points.

gawd! This will take a while {a big while!!} for me to digest. Saw some reading material on the "Arcticles" section and will be spending time on it. So for the moment {i.e many days} will be shutting up and see you guys handle this beast called Trading.

 

[leovirgo]

For sure some stocks have a tendency to follow the movements of the DOW or S&P. Most of them are, after all, a part of what the index is made of. And then there is the correlation that often occurs between different markets. For example small-caps versus mid-caps or European versus American indices. Sounds to like you are looking for something like one single unique leading indicator to guide your way. And if there were such a thing, wouldn't you want to know why that particular instrument is leading the others?

Edit: It just came to me, there is such an indicator. It is called price

Nope, I am not looking for the holy grail. I just want one more factor for my consideration, as in support and resistance line and trend lines etc in pattern-based trading. NFP figures, home sales, retail sales, rate decision, volumes etc .. I suspect a chart-based decision can be totally isolated decision as we all are exposed to news everyday. I want to find that sort of human tendency as 'an' indicator of the market. Price is the best indicator but why do people want to avoid low liquidity markets? Just some kind of food for thought!

 

[dc2000]

price looking bearish to me 12118 anyone