Dow 2007

[firewalker99]

The S&P is in minus territory !
And Nasdaq well down

and Russell 2000 well off the highs after a distribution pattern that I've seen developing...

look at the volume on DOW today's bar will be a shooting star
hmm I am turning bearish... 13500 the top?

 

[firewalker99]

Thanks Slapshot...what you are describing and what i'm showing are EXHAUSTIONS

V tops V bottoms...continuation or reversal....figure this aspect out and You can trade any market at any time with probability in your favour.

This is why the probability for Dow to continue up is higher than for a crash...monthly/weekly charts in LHS phase of a possible V top.

Anyone care to try pick the top.

c v

Important to note however we made V-reversal patterns on several different markets (DAX, YM, FTSE), but with the exception on YM none have been able to make new highs so far...

The divergence on ER2 especially troubles me, as we've had a V-move there a week before the others and this one is turning increasingly bearish to me :|

Looking forward to hearing your insights :?:

 

[lurkerlurker]

Just taking a quick look at the markets - too busy to actually trade them. Enjoying the break from actual positions - I have spent some time on creating some entry / exit, risk, and money management rules. I shall post them when they are a little more polished.
...
Quite impressed at the highs reached here. 10 minute chart shows divergences though.

MACD histogram divergence, signal crossover.
CCI divergence for 4 hours.
14 period RSI failing to make new highs. I'd be looking to short around 13490 were I trading today. Oh, well, there is always tomorrow.

Good luck all.

A few minutes after that, I thought that 13,480 / 13,478 would make a more realistic short entry. As I've said, I'm not trading today, and as that was not my intention I didn't. I have other stuff to do, and can't watch the market. I come back a few hours later, and find out that the market has tanked down 90 tics from where my short would have been.

Nice to know I can still spot a reversal, and if I had traded I would have awaited confirmation for the entry, and only bagged around 70 pips, but still - I'm falling into the trap of regretting not trading when I didn't have the time because the setup was perfect and the trade would have worked!

I was considering setting an OCO stop and limit and walking away, but I wouldn't dare do that for some reason... What if the price came within 2 pips of my limit, and then reversed and took out my stop? What if my limit was hit and only caught 20% of the move? Since I couldn't give it the attention it needed, the right thing to do was not to trade.

Still, it would have been a nice trade!

EDIT: Whoops - this thread is about the Dow 2007, not my whinging about not having traded when I should and having traded too much when I shouldn't.

Erm, yeah. Bearish. I agree. Take a look at the attached hourly candle charts. The longer term one shows that the uptrend line is still unbroken, adnt that a new high happened where is should have. Blue lines mark where I think key S/R tests will be in the days to come, and represent shorting targets (which I will use to cover my positions if price bounces off).

 

[Atilla]

No more trades for me, a good day, only one loser, hope you all gained, as for where we go from here, I'm not bothered, so long as I can grab some of it

Regards

I like your style Dinos. You know when to lock up shop and put your feet up. Or even better how to spend your pips...

Also good to see you on the DOW thread Jacinto I agree more the merrier. We could do with some bar chart analysis on this DOW thread...


Well I had to go out in a hurry so setup an OCO and exited my short prematurely with a limit set at 13425. Not complaining.

I still hold the view DOW is set to retrace so I'll start by watching it tomorrow with expectations of shorting it to 13150 levels.

 

[frugi]

A host of charts below. Sorry nothing incisive or unusual except to mention the Dow top today fitted neatly with the channel on the half hourly. It is now sat atop previous horizontal resistance and a somewhat arbitrary older channel upper boundary. Funny how these old channels seem to linger and have an effect weeks later (allowing for judicious post facto line adjustment, of course )

Also had one been watching advancers - decliners intraday on the S&P500 and Dow there was a warning negative divergence before ES made that failed new high (and Dow made HHs). (Ignore the blue line on the a-d 2 min chart it is an MA of Tick with which I am experimenting (it also diverged similarly then confirmed the downtrend)).

That ES rejection was quite sigificant I think, the failure to bust out to a new high followed by steep decline (the aforementioned V resplendent on the ES 30 min) may worry some bulls. There are some quite ugly daily candles sprinkled about too, esp. SPX BIX OEX and NDX/COMPX. But worried? Bulls? Never ... it will take a lot to stop these carefree dip buyers wading in at every opportunity. :cheesy: IF ES 1520 is taken out then a retest of the all time high seems inevitable.

Still, I'm gonna make a fool of myself with a prediction and say I think we'll see 13100 on YM before 13600. ET is full of silly "this is the top" posts so I thought it was time we had one too. I actually think today might have been it (for a few weeks), but I know the odds are against it. I have no position, bar a few shares on DXD picked up this morning for my ISA. Still someone had to sacrifice their pride first so counter-violent can step in at 13650 and nail it bang on.

 

[Atilla]

A host of charts below. Sorry nothing incisive or unusual except to mention the Dow top today fitted neatly with the channel on the half hourly. It is now sat atop a somewhat arbitrary older channel upper boundary. Funny how these old channels seem to linger and have an effect weeks later (allowing for judicious post facto line adjustment, of course )

Also had one been watching advancers - decliners intraday on the S&P500 and Dow there was a warning negative divergence before ES made that failed new high (and Dow made HHs). (Ignore the blue line on the a-d 2 min chart it is an MA of Tick with which I am experimenting (it also diverged similarly)).

That ES rejection was quite sigificant I think, the failure to bust out to a new high followed by steep decline (the aforementioned V resplendent on the ES 30 min) may worry some bulls. There are some quite ugly daily candles sprinkled about too, esp. SPX BIX OEX and NDX/COMPX. But worried? Bulls? Never ... it will take a lot to stop these carefree dip buyers wading in at every opportunity. :cheesy:

Still, I'm gonna make a fool of myself with a prediction and say I think we'll see 13100 on YM before 13600. ET is full of silly "this is the top" posts so I thought it was time we had one too. I actually think today might have been it (for a few weeks), but I know the odds are against it. I have no position, bar a few shares on DXD picked up this morning for my ISA. Still someone had to sacrifice their pride first so counter-violent can step in at 13650 and nail it bang on.

I'm with you Frugi.

However, one little concern I have got me scratching my head is this level of support for the DOW closing above 13400. Volume seems to support it too.

I'm now thinking we may have another day of buying possibly but not sure.

I have 13150 -> 13700 -> depth of the abyss (June)

 

[frugi]

Up to 13440 cash and down to 13320 would make a nice 61% retrace of today's fall ending at a 1:1 to match the decline 9/5 top to 10/5 bottom. If 13320 (or the 61% just below it) were to fail after such a move, that would probably wake some bears up.

I've added a bullish fantasy too, on the right. Note the move to today's high was a 1:1 of the previous impulse which itself was split into a smaller 1:1.

Still, neither projection will resemble what happens at all, as I am not a proficient geometrician. Besides, the Gilmore/EW type stuff doesn't work as well on Dow as it does ES. (Some reckon it doesn't work at all, but I believe it has merit in skilled hands). But maybe some of the levels will be useful.

Fib/EW levels & projections together with channels, price/volume patterns and my beloved breadth/tick/delta etc. divergences is quite a handy combination of tools. I like how Dr. Steenbarger puts it "The best setups are those that combine a multi-day edge with intraday confirmation; clear, conceptually grounded stops and equally clear profit targets." Patience to let the market reach higher probability entry and exit points is key, of course.

Anyway, yes indeed Atilla, 13700 is certainly possible in the current climate. And those S&P all time highs must be so tempting to the bulls. Still how cruel would it be to just miss 'em.

PS Note the TRAN also refusing to follow her sister to new high today. Anuvva clue.

It's good to see folk putting their calls on the line and an active thread again too.

 

[brutusdog]

dow trade.

My trade update,

firstly got locked out of t2w for most of yesterday and this am, never happened before and very strange.

Also 2 new trades taken

1. digital option that dow will hit 13210 cash within the next 8 days.

based on hammer candle and overbought reading in daily charts.

2. digital option short on cable due to expire today at 11.40 (i think, better check that ) from this am.

The dow trade is speculative, but as i'm not going to be able to actually trade live i dont think its a bad call.

have a good days trading.:cheesy:
cheers.

 

[demontaz]

My trade update,

firstly got locked out of t2w for most of yesterday and this am, never happened before and very strange.

Also 2 new trades taken

1. digital option that dow will hit 13210 cash within the next 8 days.

based on hammer candle and overbought reading in daily charts.

2. digital option short on cable due to expire today at 11.40 (i think, better check that ) from this am.

The dow trade is speculative, but as i'm not going to be able to actually trade live i dont think its a bad call.

have a good days trading.:cheesy:
cheers.

Hi Brutusdog

Who do you trade the Digital Options with?

 

[firewalker99]

firstly got locked out of t2w for most of yesterday and this am, never happened before and very strange.

I think the site was down this am... I couldn't connect neither... database error

 

[Atilla]

I think the site was down this am... I couldn't connect neither... database error

I'm long from 13409 - SL @ 13379

Target 13450 +

However, I'm bearish over all with a drop/retrace fib 23% at least due pretty soon. Within the week. I guess I'm looking for a scalp.

Support and volume at 13400 is telling me we will try for 13500 again today and failing that perhaps the expected drop. If it storms past 13500 without the drop then I'll have to review my bearish stance yet again.

 

[Dinos]

Good afternoon to one and all, wishing you every success for the afternoon.

I mentioned in a post a few days ago, I might set up a forum for the Spanish IBEX and asked whether anybody might be interested.

I've being working on my set up to see whether I could adapt it successfully for the IBEX, this morning I paper traded that system and was presently suprised, I identified 2 clear trading opportunites:-

1) At 9.51, long position at 14,784, at 10.42, position closed at 14,877 for +93 points in 52 minutes.

2) At 13.12, long position 14,854, at 14.04, position closed at 14, 904 for + 50 points in 57 minutes.

A grand total of 143 points in less than 2 hours trading, I intend to continue paper trading this, and if successful, perhaps set up a forum.

As for this afternoon, I really not bothered where we head, but will go for pop and drop, (no doubt be wrong, don't like making predictions)

 

[Dinos]

Dear Friends,

Did you know that McHugh's indicator has been Bullish 87 percent of the time, the past year? That's right, McHugh's key trend-finder indicator has been on a "buy" signal 217 out of the past 251 trading days, catching all of the rally since May 2006. The only times McHugh was Bearish was the last half of the month of May 2006, and a few days at the end of February 2007, when significant stock market corrections occurred. However, his Purchasing Power Indicator immediately turned Bullish again at the bottom of those declines.

 

[demontaz]

Good afternoon to one and all, wishing you every success for the afternoon.

I mentioned in a post a few days ago, I might set up a forum for the Spanish IBEX and asked whether anybody might be interested.

I've being working on my set up to see whether I could adapt it successfully for the IBEX, this morning I paper traded that system and was presently suprised, I identified 2 clear trading opportunites:-

1) At 9.51, long position at 14,784, at 10.42, position closed at 14,877 for +93 points in 52 minutes.

2) At 13.12, long position 14,854, at 14.04, position closed at 14, 904 for + 50 points in 57 minutes.

A grand total of 143 points in less than 2 hours trading, I intend to continue paper trading this, and if successful, perhaps set up a forum.

As for this afternoon, I really not bothered where we head, but will go for pop and drop, (no doubt be wrong, don't like making predictions)

Hi,

Who do you trade with Dinos?

 

[Dinos]

The American Association of Indivudual investors (AAII), has been rather jumpy recently, in the week ending 2/5/07, the behaviour of its participants are indicative of amateur traders rather than disciplined investors,after a strong surge in the % of bears in the survey, the % bears decreased 11pts, one week later, these bears made a direct shift into the bullish camp rather than turn neutral, the sentiment picture is now neutral.

Tried to attach download to this, but struggling, so not bothering

 

[Dinos]

Demontaz, CMC & IB, depends, accounts with both

 

[demontaz]

Demontaz, CMC & IB, depends, accounts with both

Thanks Dinos,

 

[lurkerlurker]

Demontaz, CMC & IB, depends, accounts with both

So you spreadbet with CMC and have DMA with IB?

I'm waiting the first half our out, until I feel like I can call direction. I think today could go either way...

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm waiting the first half our out, until I feel like I can call direction. I think today could go either way...

I've plotted the 100 period EMA on a 5 minute chart. I'll be looking to sell if price is below the EMA at 3pm, and will be looking to buy if it is higher. Keeping an eye on RSI(14) and MACD also. 5 minute chart, 30 for confirmation, 1 for entry.

 

[Dinos]

Yes