Dinos
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From a site that monitors Selling/Buying Volume (SBV) -
Yesterday, we stated that "It therefore seems somewhat uncharacteristic to see a reversal into a potential new mid-term downtrend after only one session near recent highs, without seeing any noteworthy high-amplitude selling surges first."
And sure enough, today the NASDAQ 100 climbed almost back to its recent multi-year high. We still think yesterday's slide was not the start of the new-mid-term down-trend, for the following reasons:
It seems somewhat uncharacteristic to see a reversal into a potential new mid-term downtrend after only one session at or near recent highs.
Whereas we saw an accumulation of selling volume on 60-day charts of the major indexes (with a 20-bar setting) during the market's recent advance from the end of June to early July, we still have not seen any particularly noteworthy high-amplitude selling surges(see blue VMA line). In contrast, during yesterday's decline we instead noted a high-amplitude buying surge.
60-day charts of the major indexes (with a 20-bar setting) continue to show declining SBV oscillator readings. Current values are: NASDAQ 100 minus 22%; S&P 500 minus 47%; Dow: minus 36%. Because these readings are still in decline, there is a chance the indexes could show a volatile downward bias. However, should these readings start to rise, we would conclude that the indexes may be ready to rise to their recent highs and perhaps exceed them.
On a higher timeframe, 1.5-year charts (with a 10-bar setting) show SBV oscillator readings in positive territory and currently advancing. Such readings would favor further market advances.
Short Term (lasts a few hours to a few days): Yesterday's forceful downside push brought out the "buy-the-dip" crowd, who managed to score some gains on the major indexes today. From a volume analysis perspective, today brought an immediate upside reaction to the buying surge that was associated with yesterday's sell-off. You can see this buying s urge on 15-day charts of the major indexes.
For the short-term, we are not entirely comfortable that we may already have seen the full extent of what appeared to become a short-term pullback (initiated with Tuesday's one-day slide). As noted in yesterday's report, we did anticipate a bounce for today, but also believed the market would then sell down again. At this point, we feel there is still a risk for a sudden intraday push lower. Should the market continue to drift higher, we also do not see a great deal of sustainable upside potential at this time. Note how today's action led to a new selling surge just in formation.
Yesterday, we stated that "It therefore seems somewhat uncharacteristic to see a reversal into a potential new mid-term downtrend after only one session near recent highs, without seeing any noteworthy high-amplitude selling surges first."
And sure enough, today the NASDAQ 100 climbed almost back to its recent multi-year high. We still think yesterday's slide was not the start of the new-mid-term down-trend, for the following reasons:
It seems somewhat uncharacteristic to see a reversal into a potential new mid-term downtrend after only one session at or near recent highs.
Whereas we saw an accumulation of selling volume on 60-day charts of the major indexes (with a 20-bar setting) during the market's recent advance from the end of June to early July, we still have not seen any particularly noteworthy high-amplitude selling surges(see blue VMA line). In contrast, during yesterday's decline we instead noted a high-amplitude buying surge.
60-day charts of the major indexes (with a 20-bar setting) continue to show declining SBV oscillator readings. Current values are: NASDAQ 100 minus 22%; S&P 500 minus 47%; Dow: minus 36%. Because these readings are still in decline, there is a chance the indexes could show a volatile downward bias. However, should these readings start to rise, we would conclude that the indexes may be ready to rise to their recent highs and perhaps exceed them.
On a higher timeframe, 1.5-year charts (with a 10-bar setting) show SBV oscillator readings in positive territory and currently advancing. Such readings would favor further market advances.
Short Term (lasts a few hours to a few days): Yesterday's forceful downside push brought out the "buy-the-dip" crowd, who managed to score some gains on the major indexes today. From a volume analysis perspective, today brought an immediate upside reaction to the buying surge that was associated with yesterday's sell-off. You can see this buying s urge on 15-day charts of the major indexes.
For the short-term, we are not entirely comfortable that we may already have seen the full extent of what appeared to become a short-term pullback (initiated with Tuesday's one-day slide). As noted in yesterday's report, we did anticipate a bounce for today, but also believed the market would then sell down again. At this point, we feel there is still a risk for a sudden intraday push lower. Should the market continue to drift higher, we also do not see a great deal of sustainable upside potential at this time. Note how today's action led to a new selling surge just in formation.
It spent all morning doing nothing even with US futures well up..........playing catch up big time now....
