Dow 2006

[Racer]

LOL... they have to think of something don't they!


"The job numbers were stronger than expected. Hourly earnings, while for the month were as expected, came in for the year at a level that might make the Fed uncomfortable," Awad said. "The case is here that we have a strong economy, we're creating jobs, wages are going up, That means for the time being corporate profits are in good shape."
Awad said the negative side of the jobs data is that it raises the risk that the Fed is going to have to raise rates over a longer-than-expected period, increasing the risk at some point down the road that they will begin to affect the economy negatively.
"But for the moment it looks like it's breaking on the side of the bulls. In other words, let's not worry about the future negative effect of interest rates but let's enjoy the current strong economic growth we're experiencing and let's reflect that in stock prices. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...6B0-4125-A190-CD4EDF9E97C9}&siteid=mktw&dist=

 

[houdani]

what's your target? I m in, too at 11075 and 11061.

i know it sounds greedy but from what im looking at 10650 looks well within reach by the end of the month/early april.gonna try and stay with it till then.

 

[macbonzo]

LOL... they have to think of something don't they!


"The job numbers were stronger than expected. Hourly earnings, while for the month were as expected, came in for the year at a level that might make the Fed uncomfortable," Awad said. "The case is here that we have a strong economy, we're creating jobs, wages are going up, That means for the time being corporate profits are in good shape."
Awad said the negative side of the jobs data is that it raises the risk that the Fed is going to have to raise rates over a longer-than-expected period, increasing the risk at some point down the road that they will begin to affect the economy negatively.
"But for the moment it looks like it's breaking on the side of the bulls. In other words, let's not worry about the future negative effect of interest rates but let's enjoy the current strong economic growth we're experiencing and let's reflect that in stock prices. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...6B0-4125-A190-CD4EDF9E97C9}&siteid=mktw&dist=

Do these guys ever say that they don't know? Quite frankly they just don't have a clue how many more interest rates rises are in the pipeline.

I think people were looking more at the average earnings figure which seemed fine. The "whisper number" going around for the non farms was 275 - 300K, so I guess that there was some relief that it wasn't that high. What does make me laugh, though, is that for the last week, all we have heard about is that the yield on the 10 year bond is hitting multi year highs and holding back the equity market. Today the yield is up about 4.78%, but, it doesn't seem to matter at all.

 

[mombasa]

Have got it completely wrong for the last 2 days. Should have taken more notice of the strong PD around the 10,920 level and the triangle break.

Got caught with my pants down and am currently short from 11,023 after averaging. Hurting but still think the daily ND is going to win.

 

[kriesau]

Have got it completely wrong for the last 2 days. Got caught with my pants down and am currently short from 11,023 after averaging. Hurting but still think the daily ND is going to win.

Ouch !
Hope your stake is not too high since it's still looking bullish for Monday.

 

[Pat494]

Have got it completely wrong for the last 2 days. Should have taken more notice of the strong PD around the 10,920 level and the triangle break.

Got caught with my pants down and am currently short from 11,023 after averaging. Hurting but still think the daily ND is going to win.

No reflection on you or your ability etc. but that word averaging rings warning bells. 9 times out of 10 one will get away with it but that time one gets caught AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[mombasa]

No reflection on you or your ability etc. but that word averaging rings warning bells. 9 times out of 10 one will get away with it but that time one gets caught AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tell me about it.

It was going so well. Ah well, gonna be a long w/e.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Tell me about it.

It was going so well. Ah well, gonna be a long w/e.

Just to make you feel a bit better. I found this comparison chart on ADVFN and have included an overlay chart. Hope the pattern continues.

 

[dc2000]

currently short from 11,023 after averaging

whilst I agree totally with pat on the merits of averaging it is my opinion that you will get an exit early week at the 11010 level
The trade has gone wrong so look for an exit now not a profit should the market fall as BB suggests then you will have missed out but you will not have lost

 

[Bigbusiness]

I wouldn't want to bet the farm on the basis of the chart I posted. It is just something that caught my eye. I also think that 11,010 is highly likely next week, so if Monday opens up, there might be a chance to sell and get a break-even stop on for the possible ride down. As there still isn't a sell signal on my longer term charts, this is risky and I think it is wise to not risk too much going against the long term trend.

 

[Racer]

(MarketWatch) -- China's policy of buying dollar assets to keep its currency tied to the dollar masks U.S. financial-market conditions and heightens the risk of inflation in the United States, said New York Fed President Timothy Geithner on Thursday.
Fed officials continue to be puzzled by the current market environment of low world interest rates, low risk premiums and large global imbalances, Geithner said.
"This pattern of exchange-rate and monetary-policy arrangements and the associated scale of official intervention in markets complicate our ability to assess the underlying economic conditions in our economies and to forecast the future path of output and inflation," Geithner said.


http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={3D9BBCF2-3641-4A9B-B0EB-D201FE5A5656}&siteId=mktw

 

[mombasa]

whilst I agree totally with pat on the merits of averaging it is my opinion that you will get an exit early week at the 11010 level
The trade has gone wrong so look for an exit now not a profit should the market fall as BB suggests then you will have missed out but you will not have lost

That's comforting DC. Thx. I was looking for an exit on friday evening when it hit 11,030 but then it bounced.

Agreed, get out and rethink.

 

[mombasa]

Just to make you feel a bit better. I found this comparison chart on ADVFN and have included an overlay chart. Hope the pattern continues.

BB, that's what I've been banking on - a correction down to 10,600 levels before a continuation of the longer term trend.

Hoping that Friday's rise was just a pullback.

 

[Racer]

"The Treasury could hit the debt limit on federal borrowing in the coming week. Usually Congress just votes to increase the limit, currently about $8.2 trillion. But some Democrats, angered about the budget deficit, may force a debate over the issue that most Republicans are trying to avoid."

 

[kriesau]

Scare tactics !

http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

 

[Racer]

oh goody...

I can add this bit too...

The bull market turned three last October, making it one of the oldest on record, and perhaps suggesting its days are numbered.

"Most bull markets don't last as long as this one has," said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

He said as measured by the Dow industrials, only five bull markets in history have lasted longer than the current one, which is nearly 3-1/2 years old.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/07/markets/markets_feature/index.htm

 

[mark twain uk]

http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

they are making some valid points there

 

[Morris]

Hmm... rather alarmist in tone surely ?

Anyone know if the euro denominated oil trading story has any truth ?

 

[Morris]

Some info here:

http://www.energybulletin.net/12125.html

 

[Pat494]

Please consider the value of the Dow future 11184 compared to the Dow 11104 that's 80 points. Why there is such an unusually large difference I don't know but I do think it is significant. Oil I expect.............