Dow 2006

Classic stop gunning excercise by cmc, the masters of taking out your stops when the underlining market is closed, a 30 point spike on the dow futures (and cash) at 22:00, I hope nobody here got caught by that (I didn't, I don't trust cmc with hard stops)

I checked with finspreads and they don't have the same spike, some poor sods got rodgered by cmc, despicable behaviour really
 

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dont worry, we'll hit that 12,135 level at least in normal trading hours today, so no worries on that score. :)

on a serious question guys.

which way is the market currently heading?

which way has it been heading for the past few months in earnest, and 4 years in general?

why are you all seemingly short?
 
.
FetteredChinos said:
dont worry, we'll hit that 12,135 level at least in normal trading hours today, so no worries on that score. :)

on a serious question guys.

which way is the market currently heading? Who knows? After five down days and one up day it can go up, down or move sideways.
which way has it been heading for the past few months in earnest, and 4 years in general? For the last few months it has been going up about 1300 points, in what is one of the longest rallies in decades. It is up almost 5000 points since the lows of 2003. Why am I short? Because nothing goes up for ever and I believe that a correction is guaranteed, the only questions to ask are when it will take place and how severe it will be. Maybe the elections today would be used as an excuse to start the ball rolling. If it goes down, there is a long way to go. If it goes up, I will close my shorts and wait for another trade. With careful assessment of risk and reward, money management and a bit of luck, I should be able to carry on trading even if it goes up from here.

why are you all seemingly short? We are not all short, dc made a nice profit going long yesterday.
Click to expand...
 
Tom Hougaard seems to be thinking like me (or is it the other way round?)

"The election in the US is coming up. Is it going to be a case of buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news. I am thinking that the 17th this month will be the high as I have pointed out many times. However, as this is also based on many different cycles, it could actually happen a week before, which it also happens to be 21 weeks up.

I feel that the market is so severely stretched to the upside, but I think this could continue for another couple of days, especially as you have a huge political event taking place this week. If you like me are bearish the market, you should wait to short until you get the result of the election. I will prefer to wait until my time frame is up, which is not for another week. Otherwise I will focus on the 1369 in the SP500 to indicate whether the bull run is over. "
 
FetteredChinos said:
dont worry, we'll hit that 12,135 level at least in normal trading hours today, so no worries on that score. :)

on a serious question guys.

which way is the market currently heading?

which way has it been heading for the past few months in earnest, and 4 years in general?

why are you all seemingly short?
Click to expand...


Isn't that how the markets operate?

If everyone agreed to the direction, then we might as well all logoff and close wall street :)
 
FetteredChinos said:
dont worry, we'll hit that 12,135 level at least in normal trading hours today, so no worries on that score. :)
Click to expand...

oh well, hit it pre-market in the end..

think i close some of my longs before the end of the day, and then re-open them after the post-election fall-out.

market seems to be pricing in democrat gains. might well correct for a day or two before resuming upwards.

still think we're gonna get to 13,500 with a bit of help from Santa before january.

good luck everyone today, stay safe, keep your stops, and dont forget to change your knickers regularly..

fc
 
FetteredChinos said:
oh well, hit it pre-market in the end..

think i close some of my longs before the end of the day, and then re-open them after the post-election fall-out.

market seems to be pricing in democrat gains. might well correct for a day or two before resuming upwards.

still think we're gonna get to 13,500 with a bit of help from Santa before january.

good luck everyone today, stay safe, keep your stops, and dont forget to change your knickers regularly..

fc
Click to expand...

well done fc. but do I detect a bit of smugness there?
 
lol...apologies if it came accross that way..
that wasnt my intention.

just saying that i would rather be largely out of the market until the election furore has died down. bullish seasonalities are here for a few more weeks at least.

hope your shorts are ok though..

fc
 
yup, one of williams' "oops" sells.. if we reenter yesterdays range...


however, the way the buying went yesterday, it could equally go the other way by a similar margin.

now where did i leave my building society passbook?
 
Are you waiting for 13000 before going short?
Click to expand...

no 12160s will do me, Im not looking for anything huge (6/700 points over a couple of weeks) just a better price to get on long for the January sales
 
For those of a bearish nature it is worth considering the following -

1. The massive windfall from high oil prices has to find a home and some of those billions will find their
way into the stockmarkets of which Wall Street will be the major beneficiary.
2. Private Equity funds have an estimated $178 billion available for buyouts (these clowns will chase the
markets to unreasonable levels).
3. The FED no longer publish M3 money supply figures so the economy is awash with cash.
4. Mutual Funds cannot afford to stay on the sidelines for fear of under performing their peers and
subsequently seeing a net outflow of funds.

These are just four of the factors to consider and probably enough to make even the most hardened bears retreat to the sidelines for now.
 
LION63 said:
For those of a bearish nature it is worth considering the following -

1. The massive windfall from high oil prices has to find a home and some of those billions will find their
way into the stockmarkets of which Wall Street will be the major beneficiary.
2. Private Equity funds have an estimated $178 billion available for buyouts (these clowns will chase the
markets to unreasonable levels).
3. The FED no longer publish M3 money supply figures so the economy is awash with cash.
4. Mutual Funds cannot afford to stay on the sidelines for fear of under performing their peers and
subsequently seeing a net outflow of funds.

These are just four of the factors to consider and probably enough to make even the most hardened bears retreat to the sidelines for now.
Click to expand...


Feel like a polar bear at the moment... melting ice caps... global warming... no sight of food...

Might be hibernation time for me....

See you guys...

aarrgghhh....
 
LION63 said:
For those of a bearish nature it is worth considering the following -

1. The massive windfall from high oil prices has to find a home and some of those billions will find their
way into the stockmarkets of which Wall Street will be the major beneficiary.
2. Private Equity funds have an estimated $178 billion available for buyouts (these clowns will chase the
markets to unreasonable levels).
3. The FED no longer publish M3 money supply figures so the economy is awash with cash.
4. Mutual Funds cannot afford to stay on the sidelines for fear of under performing their peers and
subsequently seeing a net outflow of funds.

These are just four of the factors to consider and probably enough to make even the most hardened bears retreat to the sidelines for now.
Click to expand...


On this basis, the next stop for the DOW is 100,000, my stop loss is somewhere below that level. It is at such times where exuberant buyers chase the market higher and higher without a worry that the market throws a wabbler.
 
Polls will begin closing at 6 p.m. (2300 GMT) but it could be hours before results are known.
 
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