Do you expect the FTSE to rise/fall?

[sharesr4us]

hi there,

first of all thanks for a brilliant forum.

I have got the idea of spread betting and have made a few quid here and there.

I am with PaddyPowerTrader.

My question relates to what you guys think will happen to FTSE on monday as lloyds and government have agreed the Assett Protection Deal and i can only assume this will push up the banking sector. What advice can you guys give? Will the FTSE go up or down?

Lastly I need to understand how this rolling works. I mean i'm with ADVFN for checking the shares and indices, but at 4:30pm when the market closes, the FTSE continues running on paddy account? How do i know when to bet? Do i bet early morning at 8am or place an order beforehand?

thanks for your help

 

[solentsurfer]

hi there,

first of all thanks for a brilliant forum.

I have got the idea of spread betting and have made a few quid here and there.

I am with PaddyPowerTrader.

My question relates to what you guys think will happen to FTSE on monday as lloyds and government have agreed the Assett Protection Deal and i can only assume this will push up the banking sector. What advice can you guys give? Will the FTSE go up or down?

Lastly I need to understand how this rolling works. I mean i'm with ADVFN for checking the shares and indices, but at 4:30pm when the market closes, the FTSE continues running on paddy account? How do i know when to bet? Do i bet early morning at 8am or place an order beforehand?

thanks for your help

Whether the banking baleout is seen as a positive is a matter of opinion. Just the thought that this may happen was very damaging to banking stocks in the US (not really been following UK but guess it's the same) as it fundamentally changes the whole situation and therefore the reason why you would own a bank stock - decisions are in the hands of the Government, not the individual shareholder. Personally, I wouldn't buy a banking stock at the moment and can't really see why anyone else would - they are seriously flawed companies.

Personally, I wouldn't try to guess which way the FTSE is going and I don't use fundamentals/news anyway. I just have a simple system based on trends, lines of support & resistance with half an eye on MACD and RSI and try to disregard news.

Spread bet companies follow the futures market out of hours - doesn't matter when you place your bet although most companies have tighter spreads in hours. Daily bets expire at market close but they can be set to 'roll' into the next day. This costs as you will usually pay 50% of spread or similar. If you are likely to want to roll better of taking a futures bet - greater initilal spread but the original bet stays open until you close or bet expires (ie Mar 09, June 09 etc)

 

[sharesr4us]

thank u very much solent for the detailed info.

sorry, but i'm a bit thick, so could you tell me pls what you would recommend i do? :-

a. BET ON THE FTSE DURING THE OPENING HOURS I.E. 8AM
b. BET ON THE FTSE BEFORE 8AM - IF SO, THEN WHAT TIME?

thanks again

 

[MrMiyagi]

thank u very much solent for the detailed info.

sorry, but i'm a bit thick, so could you tell me pls what you would recommend i do? :-

a. BET ON THE FTSE DURING THE OPENING HOURS I.E. 8AM
b. BET ON THE FTSE BEFORE 8AM - IF SO, THEN WHAT TIME?

thanks again

watch the $FTSE from 7am, a general mood for the day is usually evident at the open, and get used to watching how the market reacts to new information.. no-one on this board knows whats gonna happen monday.

 

[InReality]

be careful about anticipating reactions to news.

I thought the ftse would go down after the us employment results on friday.
originally i planned to wait and see what the reaction was and then go with the trend.
as i waited for the announcement became impatient and i figured it would have to go down.
so went short 4 minutes before the announcement and then the market went up 20/30 points.

i'd go with the advise in the last post - if your starting out - as i am - i'd read a lot of the beginner threads. you'll see the same good advice over and over. read the psycology threads too.

 

[tomorton]

There's no rational basis for opening a position in anticipation of news because there is no evidence to indicate whether the news will make the market go up or down. Its obvious but if there was any such evidence, the market would have already moved up or down. So effectively you're driving blind down a road and whether you make it gracefully round the next bend or crash is more luck than judgement.

Trading the reaction to the news item and getting into the trend it initiates is profitable, but you might need to await a consolidation period or retracement to allow you to get in without overpaying.

Beware the volatility of SB quotes etc. when markets are closed - they can be all over the place: it is annoying to have an order well away from market levels triggered by a short-lived spike. Even when the market opens, quotes are often volatile, liable to reverse and have wide spreads in early trading, as market players digest and react to overnight news and other market performances, which just goes to show how difficult it is to anticipate the dffects of news.

 

[sharesr4us]

thanks very much for your helpful info guys. So what you all are trying to say is wait until 8am and watch the way ftse goes?

lastly someone mentioned that there are loads of beginners threads....i looked around and there are loads to go through...from your experience, which few are the best ones that i could quickly look at?

thanks a million again!

 

[sullystocks]

Hi Sharesrus - I'm new to trading and also on Paddypower. I just read a decent post as charts etc. are not my thing Forex Factory - View Single Post - Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

I'd also stay away from market open/big news announcements etc (jobs numbers/bank news etc.)/careful at close as these are very volatile times. Leave things settle before you jump in.

 

[solentsurfer]

thank u very much solent for the detailed info.

sorry, but i'm a bit thick, so could you tell me pls what you would recommend i do? :-

a. BET ON THE FTSE DURING THE OPENING HOURS I.E. 8AM
b. BET ON THE FTSE BEFORE 8AM - IF SO, THEN WHAT TIME?

thanks again

It doesn't really matter - the thing is to have a set of rules for your self that will trigger a trade (or an exit) and stick to it. I rarely trade out of hours but only because one of my rules is to make sure I get some rest. You will always miss some moves, that's just the way it is, but there will always be more.