DB an Geo's Smallcap Smorgasbord

[Geofract]

bollox...i had a 50% retrace down for 022...thought i was being clever placing it below this just in case it blew through 022 before rallying.

it stopped dead on 022, opened up another hourly candle that touched 020 before heading north.

all i had to do was put my order at my actual fib level....what a gonk.

Which swing are you using fibs on?

 

[dr.blix]

Now I would wait for a 50% + retrace from todays high (not sure we've seen that yet) and yesterdays low,

yesterdays low? you mean the lowest point of yesterdays price action (14800)?

or yesterdays final bias low (14888)?

or the low of the final 4H candle at midnight (14961)?!

 

[Geofract]

yesterdays low? you mean the lowest point of yesterdays price action (14800)?

or yesterdays final bias low (14888)?

or the low of the final 4H candle at midnight (14961)?!

Yesterdays Low - 14888

 

[dr.blix]

Which swing are you using fibs on?

my fibs taken from the mornings 4H candle. 000 - 044

the third H1 candle respected them exactly stopping at 022 50%.

this final 1H has so far overshot the 50 and the 100% by 2 pips and 3 pips respectively.

only 20 mins in though so i'm waiting to see what happens...i've just missed out on 20 pips though through trying to be cautious and grab a swing that may have overshot the fib...

 

[dr.blix]

Yesterdays Low - 14888

aah yeah sorry, was looking at the 23rd for 800...not used to 4H TF

 

[dr.blix]

shorted E$ from 085 to 073 (50% retrace on that last big move) looks like i could have got out @ 064 (38% fib) but i'm happy...met my target for today

 

[dr.blix]

i suppose the bias strat would make me a buyer again @ 070!!

 

[dr.blix]

RAY fallen into a bullflag...lows should be 5.1p, or 4.4p

thankfully i only have a half position on this cheeky little monkey

 

[Geofract]

Ok, if you're going to follow the fib pullback strat DB, then you only go long on E$ now. Also, fibs are based on previous/current days lows and highs, or vice versa.

Be careful imho. Sure you can find fibs working on all TF's and minor intraday swings, but what are the porbabailities of these trades working out in your favour? if you knwo the probabilities, then fair enough! Also, wait for confirmation if you can, otherwise you're taking big risks.

There are potential setups everywhere if you choose to view the market that way, but you should focus on the high probability patterns and circumstances imho.

 

[Geofract]

i suppose the bias strat would make me a buyer again @ 070!!

nope

 

[dr.blix]

yeah your right mate.

thankfully i'm sticking to my daily target and will now wait for other potential 4H setups.

soo tempting not to trade all the swings though...as if you hold the belief that it will retrace to a fib level...why not trade that too?

with a tighter stop and smaller position? (he says, trying to rationalise firing positions on all day)

anyhoo, time for a nice pot of tea and a sticky bun

 

[Geofract]

soo tempting not to trade all the swings though...as if you hold the belief that it will retrace to a fib level...why not trade that too?

It's fine if you have a method, and can prove you can make it work +65% of the time, if not, leave it alone, because the risks are a completely unknown quantity.

 

[dr.blix]

YELL on its way back down to 32p.

if it consolidates there i'll watch for a poss buy with a 20% target of 38p.

 

[dr.blix]

$/CAD...both pattern S bias!

 

[Geofract]

Nice short op at 50% fib

 

[dr.blix]

360% rise on INGG today.

i sold mine yesterday, because i was sick of seeing them do nothing and they wre the only one of my positions that i could still get out at break even.

i think this is the final straw for me. i've made these ridiculous decisions too often.

it's led to me losing thousands, and then losing thousands in potential profits.

i sold YELL for 31p days before it hit 80p.

i've just sold INGG for 7p the day before it hits 34p.

i just don't have it in me to keep doing it now.

 

[minch]

Hey fella's, After a busy week, at last a chance to concentrate on the markets again,

I've just gone short Ftse @ 5192 for a possible pullback from this morning's rise,

EDIT; Chin up Dr B, It's a frustrating business, leaving money on the table can feel worse than a losing trade.

 

[Geofract]

Hey Minch,

I was contemplating short FTSE at 5190 area - looks like res for now

 

[minch]

Hey Minch,

I was contemplating short FTSE at 5190 area - looks like res for now

Yes Geo, I thought it was worth a punt,

Sbr zone from low of yesterday, and hourly 20 ema.

Stop @ BE, I could have took 20 pts on a scalp, but let it run.

 

[Geofract]

I am waiting tbh - Shorts must be right, but then as soon as I short, they'll start buying