Date of next Financial Crisis: 2025!

[trendie]

Was just trawling through Youtube.
Quite an interesting discussion.
The second speaker, perhaps tongue-in-cheek, suggests the crises happen every 17 years or so. (1974/5; 1991/2; 2007/8; 2025/6)

He suggests the crises are nothing special, just bog-standard cycles.
All caused by property-led investments.

If you dont want t watch all of it, just watch from around 11 minutes onwards.
(Charles Goodhart)

 

[BSD]

Hiya Trendie,

think everything moves in cycles, simply because the people who are the driving force behind events permanently oscillate between irrational exuberance, or equally irrational panic.

Mainly the fault of EGO taking over.

Forced induction of Prozac would level things out no end I believe.

 

[adalc]

I believe cycles are part of life and humans as a whole.
I don't believe you can easily foresee anything though, especially with accuracy.
Yes there will be a crisis for sure, but pinpointing when it will be is just sheer luck.
Also because people who correctly foresee a crisis (once) usually don't keep count of the other times they were wrong...

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Date of next Financial Crisis: 2025!

...Who knows...and more importantly, who cares. -- Just trade in the here and now. make that money in the present, that's all that matters

 

[Atilla]

Cycles do exist.

There is the short white good cycle
Small electronics have a 4-7 year life cycle; TV, washing machines, Gadgets etc

There is the medium term cycle
Like cars and light industrial equipment which may have 10-14 year life span before it is either renewed/replaced etc

Then there is the long term cycle for heavy industrial goods and items
Like Aeroplanes, railways and heavy industry goods with 20-25 year life cycle


Then there is innovation and random new inventions with creative destruction capabilities which may put a bit of a spin on above three cycles.


These cycles can coincide thus either acting to smooth out or magnify impact of those spending plans.


Give or take couple of years the stats do indicate probabilities. Easier to spot with the benefit of hind sight but cycles do exist imho.

 

[kalott]

http://www.financialsense.com/contr...y/kondratieff-waves-greater-depression-update