[DARWIN] NTI by KlondikeFX

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KlondikeFX

Junior member
22 68
Actually, this is a pretty brutal drawdown.

GBPUSD is going to be continued on 10/05/2020 though. This will at least step up the trading frequency. Below is GBPUSD reference for 2020 over ~180 trades so far.

gbpusd_2020_1.png
 

VolcanoFX

Junior member
14 41
Hello @KlondikeFX, very happy to see you here!

Recent behavior of your strategy on the Cable is very good in my opinion, very balanced. Out of curiosity (feel free also to refuse the request) , in case you have tracked the performance, it would be possible to know its behavior in 2019? If I remember correctly you stopped trading this Pair by the end of 2018 on your NTI due to Brexit uncertainty.

I don't think the DD you are experiencing is brutal, in my opinion it is strictly controlled and without changes of rules, spread over a long and constant period of time. EURUSD is giving troubles non just for your type of strategy, since mid of 2018 it's volatility is sometimes too much, sometimes to low on short time frame, still very choppy in my opinion. Can I ask your opinion about the excessive randomness of this period ( 2 year phase ) where this Pair seems to lack consistency in movements, jumping too easily from one small phase to another without warnings?

VolcanoFX 🌋
 
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KlondikeFX

Junior member
22 68
Hi,

Recent behavior of your strategy on the Cable is very good in my opinion, very balanced. Out of curiosity (feel free also to refuse the request) , in case you have tracked the performance, it would be possible to know its behavior in 2019? If I remember correctly you stopped trading this Pair by the end of 2018 on your NTI due to Brexit uncertainty.

I think you summed it up very well. Below is the performance for Nov 2018 until Dec 2019. Still okeyish.

gbpusd_2019_1.png


I don't think the DD you are experiencing is brutal, in my opinion it is strictly controlled and without changes of rules, spread over a long and constant period of time.

With brutal I mean it's tough to trade through this phase as it's taking so long and the trading frequency is reduced due to the reasons you mention later.

Can I ask your opinion about the excessive randomness of this period ( 2 year phase ) where this Pair seems to lack consistency in movements, jumping too easily from one small phase to another without warnings?

This is also something I have been watching closely. I hope it's just a random effect but it might also be due to increased efficiency in this pair caused by better and more algorithmic trading :unsure:
I would assume EURUSD would be the first pair to show those effects if they indeed were the reason as it's the most traded. I think we need to wait and see if behavior "normalizes" in the coming years.
 

VolcanoFX

Junior member
14 41
Thanks for taking the time @KlondikeFX , we understood each other well and we came more or less at the same conclusion, of course a reduced frequency into the input phase due to a series of filters working in a foggy environment, opens the door also to longer periods of stagnation, and when market is more despotic than usual like in recent times, with filters sometimes you cut too much, others too little. With the problems I have on this pair, I also observed that without certain filters, things would be worse though 🧐. I still think it's just a longer cycle than usual, maybe I'll be wrong.
 

KlondikeFX

Junior member
22 68
Hi,

indeed. Not so pleasant news is that beginning with 2021 german taxpayers are no longer allowed to completely set off losing trades against winning trades. The amount of losses is capped at 20K EUR for Futures, CFDs, etc.
That makes it impossible to continue trading with larger accounts. I even needed to reduce the money on my Darwinex reference account.
So for 2021, I will have to drastically reduce my exposure to a ridiculous level that no longer justifies investing a lot of time into CFD trading.
I will keep the Forex strategies running for reference purposes but I also have to admit that I am currently no longer trading a significant amount of my own capital as I will temporarily move many of my funds to passive investing ventures.

I hope to find a solution for this tax issue in the coming months. However, now that this law is in place it might take a long time until it's eventually overturned. Even if the ruling is pretty obviously unconstitutional.
 

KlondikeFX

Junior member
22 68
Yeah I wouldn't call it impressive. However, it's kind of unusual that I did stick to that strategy despite a stagnation of about 3 years. The edge of CBV is pretty small so deviation is expected to be high.
NTI and CBV are both mean reversion scalpers with NTI being somewhat more sophisticated. But strategies are different enough to keep trading both.
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,546 1,987
If I were in your place I would trade both with 3000 leaving small tradesize and var to minimize your problem with trading P&L and taxes.
NTI could go at var 3% and 3000 with the same tradesize.
I mean to get serious allocations in Darwinia.
 
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