1. Geopolitics – US-Iran Conflict Escalates
President Trump declared the ceasefire agreement with Iran officially "ended" and threatened additional airstrikes and a naval blockade. In response, Iran struck 85 US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Brent crude briefly spiked to $79/bbl before pulling back. This escalation has reignited inflation fears and boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar.Key Developments:
- Trump: "The truce is over"
- US threatens more strikes and blockade
- Iran retaliated against 85 US bases
- Brent crude spiked to $79/bbl
2. Oil – Surges, Then Pulls Back
WTI crude is trading at **$71.30/bbl**, pulling back after hitting a high of $75.73 on Wednesday. Despite the escalation, physical oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain relatively stable.Key Levels:
- Support: $70.00 (psychological) – $70.74 (14-day MA)
- Resistance: $75.73 (Wednesday high) – $77.95 (June 22 high)
3. Gold – Holding Above $4,100
Gold is trading at **$4,117/oz**, finding support after hitting a low of $4,022 on Wednesday. Trump's statement triggered safe-haven buying, but gold remains under pressure from higher bond yields and oil-driven inflation expectations.Key Levels:
- Support: $4,022 (Wednesday low) – $4,000 (psychological)
- Resistance: $4,133 (20-day MA) – $4,180 – $4,245 (34-day MA)
4. DXY – Supported by Safe-Haven Flows
The US Dollar Index is trading at ~101.06. The dollar remains supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. The FOMC Minutes showed the Fed is divided on the inflation outlook, with some members expecting rates to stay at 3.6% or slightly lower by year-end, while others see rates moving higher.Key Levels:
- Support: 100.62 (25-day MA) – 100.00 (psychological)
- Resistance: 101.59 (July 1 high) – 102.00
5. Equities – ASX 200 Breaks Below 200-Day MA, NZX50 Hits Record
ASX 200: Closed at 8,762 (-0.3%), breaking below the 200-day moving average (8,770) for the first time in months. The index has now fallen for four consecutive days. Energy (+1.67%) was the only strong sector, while Materials (-1.48%) and REITs (-1.11%) lagged.NZX50: Surged 0.9% to 13,786 – a new record high. Fletcher Building (+5.6%) led gains after raising full-year guidance. The index is up 1.2% for the week despite the RBNZ's 25bp rate hike to 2.5%.
Outlook: ASX 200 is bearish below 8,770 – support at 8,700-8,680. NZX50 remains in a strong uptrend – resistance at 13,840-13,920.
Key Takeaways
- **Oil ($71.30):** Bullish above $70.00. Target: $75.73-$77.95. Stop below $70.00.
- **Gold ($4,117):** Neutral. Break above $4,133 targets $4,180-$4,245. Break below $4,000 targets $3,950.
- DXY (101.06): Neutral. Range: 100.50-101.50.
- ASX 200 (8,762): Bearish below 8,770. Support 8,700-8,680.
- NZX50 (13,786): Bullish. Target 13,840-13,920. Support 13,680.
