Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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GBP/USD is Diving, USD/CAD Could Start Steady Increase


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GBP/USD failed to stay above 1.3800 and extended its decline. USD/CAD is showing positive signs, but it must clear 1.2570 for a decent increase in the near term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD


  • The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above the 1.3850 support zone.
  • There is a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • USD/CAD found support near the 1.2525 zone and it is now recovering higher.
  • Earlier, there was a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.3565 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

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This past week, the British Pound failed to stay above the 1.3850 and 1.3800 support levels against the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a fresh decline and it even broke the 1.3750 support zone.

There was a close below the 1.3750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair declined below the 1.3700 level and it traded as low as 1.3670. Recently, there was an upside correction above 1.3700, but the pair struggled to clear the 1.3750 zone.

A high was formed near 1.3744 and the pair is now declining. It broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3670 low to 1.3744 high.

There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair is now trading near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3670 low to 1.3744 high.

It seems like the pair might continue to move down below the 1.3670 support zone. The next major support is near the 1.3620 level, below which the pair might test 1.3580.

On the upside, the 1.3720 zone is a major hurdle along with the 50 hourly simple moving average. A successful close above the 1.3720 and 1.3750 levels could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions.




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Cryptocurrencies Remain Well Bid as Coinbase Goes Public This Week


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Over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin extended its rally to above $60,000 again. While not making a new all-time high, Bitcoin remains well bid ahead of the main event of the week ahead – the listing of Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges.

The cryptocurrency market increased in size dramatically in recent years. The interest surrounding cryptocurrencies is on the rise, as suggested by the number of people trading on the various exchanges.

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Part of the process of becoming a listed company, Coinbase made public its Q1 2021 numbers. What is interesting is that the number of active traders increased dramatically in the first months of the year, explaining the rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

While many traders focus on Bitcoin only, some other cryptocurrencies had an even better performance than Bitcoin. For example, Ethereum reached a new all-time high over the weekend, and the rally looks poised to continue.

Bitcoin’s detractors argue that the digital currency wastes a vast amount of energy, and thus it is an environmental disaster. Because of that, many traders flee Bitcoin to other alternatives, such as Ether, that do not have such a problem.

Yet, when it comes to institutional investors’ adoption, Bitcoin remains the preferred choice. Moving forward, the price of Bitcoin remains well bid, and so the rally is poised to continue.

Two days from now, Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world, goes public. Companies usually choose to go public during a rising market. Often companies postpone the listing process when markets are falling. But now, the main indices are close to all-time highs, and so the timing of going public boats well for Coinbase and cryptocurrency traders.

Judging by the interest surrounding cryptocurrencies, the chances are that Coinbase’s listing will be a bullish event for the main cryptocurrencies too. As such, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain well bid, with buyers likely to step in on every dip.




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EUR/USD Gains Traction, USD/JPY Is Extending Losses


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EUR/USD started a decent increase after forming a base above the 1.1850 level. USD/JPY is declining and it broke the 109.00 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY


  • The Euro is showing positive signs above the 1.1880 and 1.1900 levels.
  • There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/JPY started a fresh decline below the 109.20 and 109.00 support levels.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 109.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

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After a decent upward move, the Euro settled above the 1.1850 resistance zone against the US Dollar. Recently, the EUR/USD pair formed a support base above 1.1850 and started a fresh increase.

It broke a few important hurdles near the 1.1880 and 1.1900 levels. There was also a break above a key declining channel with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair gained pace above the 1.1940 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

A high is formed near 1.1960 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.1940 level.

The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1877 low to 1.1960 high is also near the 1.1940 level. The next major support on the downside is near the 1.1920 level (the recent breakout zone).

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1877 low to 1.1960 high is also near the 1.1920 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1850 level. On the upside, the first major resistance is now forming near the 1.1960 levels.

A successful break above the 1.1960 resistance could open the doors for a push towards the 1.2000 resistance zone in the coming sessions.




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LTC and EOS – Resistance found


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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has reached $282 at its highest point yesterday and after a minor retracement made it back to that area again today. Currently, it is being traded at $271.89 and is looking like it’s moving to the downside.

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On the hourly chart, we can see that the price of Litecoin was in an uptrend from the 25th of March when it was traded at $167. Measured to its highest point yesterday that was an increase of 68.8% but what more significant is that it made a higher high compared to the one on the 20th of February. This is why the increase from the 25th is considered the 3rd wave from the higher degree five-wave count. The wave structure implies that it might have ended and considering that we have seen the formation of the ascending channel from the start of the year now a pullback all the way down to its support might occur.

There is still a bit more room to the upside for proper interaction with the channel’s resistance and more so if the level is adjusted to encompass February’s high. However, this structure appears to be an ending diagonal as the 5th wave from the higher degree impulse which is why further interactions with its level would be expected before the completion, meaning we could likely see the price of Litecoin back to $220 area, before another higher high to $330 area.




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Gold Price and Oil Price Could Continue To Rise


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Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,740 resistance zone. Crude oil price is also rising and it is likely to continue higher above $63.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil


  • Gold price gained pace after it broke the $1,720 and $1,740 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,745 on the hourly chart of gold.
  • Crude oil price climbed higher nicely and it settled above the $62.00 support zone.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $62.45 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

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Earlier this week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,725 level against the US Dollar. As a result, there was a fresh increase above the $1,730 and $1,740 levels.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,745 on the hourly chart of gold. The price gained pace above the $1,750 level and it settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It even traded above the $1,765 level and a high is formed near $1,769 on FXOpen. The price is now correcting lower and trading below the $1,765 level.

It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,732 low to $1,769 high. An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,758 level. The next major support on the downside is near the $1,755 level.

Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,750 support. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,732 low to $1,769 high.

On the upside, the $1,768 and $1,770 levels are immediate hurdles. A clear break above $1,770 might open the doors for a steady increase towards the $1,780 level. The next key resistance is near the $1,800 level.




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GBP/USD Eyes More Upsides, EUR/GBP Holding Key Support


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GBP/USD is showing positive signs above 1.3800 and 1.3780. EUR/GBP is showing bearish signs and it is testing a major support near 0.8640.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP


  • The British Pound started a decent increase from the 1.3720 support zone.
  • There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3780 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP failed to continue higher above 0.8720 and corrected lower.
  • There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 0.8685 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a support base above 1.3700, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3750 and 1.3800 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

There was also a close above the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. During the increase, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3780 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

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The pair climbed above the 1.3820 level and traded as high as 1.3843 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction from the 1.3843 high.

The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3716 swing low to 1.3843 high at 1.3813. The next major support on the downside is near the 1.3800 zone (the recent breakout zone).

Any more losses could initiate a drop towards the 1.3780 support or the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3716 swing low to 1.3843 high is also near the 1.3780 level.

On the upside, the 1.3840 and 1.3850 levels are immediate hurdles. A successful break above 1.3850 might clear the path for more gains above the 1.3880 and 1.3900 levels.




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Lumber Prices Go Ballistic as the U.S. Housing Market Booms


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The U.S. housing sector is closely watched by investors from all over the world. It has strategic importance both for the United States GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and for the world’s economies.

People are too focused now on the COVID-19 pandemic to remember that the previous crisis, a financial one, started from the U.S. housing sector. In 2008-2009, the U.S. housing market bubble burst, a combination of derivative products used the wrong way, and so the market collapsed rapidly. The shockwave reached Europe and other developed economies, generating a financial crisis that haunted Europe for several years.

Fast forward to 2021, the world still struggles with the pandemic, but the housing market in the United States is in an unprecedented boom. This is very good news for the domestic economy and also for other economies. After all, when America’s economy outperforms, the positive spillovers influence other economies too.

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Recovery Stronger Than Expected As Suggested by Strong Housing Sector Activity

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered changes in consumer behavior. People learned that online shopping (for some products) is as good as going out and buying the product. And, cheaper.

Therefore, the chances are that most of the changes seen during the pandemic are here to stay. One of the most interesting changes affected the workplace. Those who can work from home have built a home office, for example.

Also, people fled cities for outdoor spaces. Or, they stopped using common transportation favoring personal cars.

As such, contrary to all expectations, the COVID-19 recession was unique as both the auto and the housing sectors performed well. In particular, the housing sector has seen tremendous growth, as America literally faces a shortage of new houses.

And lumber to build them.
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The price of lumber broke above $1,000 as there is no lumber enough to satisfy the demand. For those unfamiliar with the commodities market, lumber is a product of timberland and is usually harvested in periods of rising prices.

This is such a period. However, the demand from the U.S. housing market is so strong that the futures market still points to higher lumber prices. Commodities are typically traded on futures exchanges, where the clearinghouse brings together buyers and sellers and settles the prices on a daily basis.

When the spot price exceeds the futures price, it is said that the market is in backwardation. The entire lumber futures curve is in backwardation – a bullish sign suggesting more upside is possible for the price of lumber.

Therefore, investors should expect more upside for the U.S. housing market and, thus, for the U.S. economy. Are we about to witness one of the biggest economic recoveries in history?




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BTC and XRP – Recovery seen but further downside expected


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BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has fallen by 20.4% measured from its all-time high of $64,791 made on the 14th of April to its lowest wick on the 17th when the price came down to $51,531. From there we have seen a recovery to $57,702 but then again the price started falling back down and is currently being traded at around $55,980.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that the price made the majority of its decrease on the 17th which was the 5th wave from the descending impulse. This could be the first sub-wave of the higher degree downturn that we are to see in the market.

It broke down from some of the highly significant support levels both horizontal and the ascending triangle in which it was since the 21st of February. This ascending triangle could have been the ending diagonal which marked the completion of the five-wave impulse from March last year.

This is the overdue correction that the market needed to overcome in order to continue moving to the upside and is now likely to push the price further to the downside. However, this isn’t expected in a straight line. More likely we are to see now a corrective increase and a consolidation before another impulsive move to the downside of the equally strong amount.

Potentially we could see now an ABC correction out of which we are currently seeing the development of the B wave and in the upcoming days the C wave would make a higher high compared to Monday’s one but from there further lows would be expected below the $50,000 mark.




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EUR/USD Gains Traction, USD/CHF Could Extend Losses


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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1950 and 1.2000 resistance levels. USD/CHF is declining and it could dive if it breaks the 0.9125 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF


  • The Euro started a fresh increase after it settle above 1.1950 against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/CHF is following a bearish path below the 0.9200 support zone.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9170 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

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The Euro formed a strong support base above the 1.1950 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh increase and it broke many hurdles near the 1.1980 and 1.2000 levels.

The pair even surged above the 1.2040 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed near 1.2079 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains. It traded below the 1.2060 and 1.2050 levels.

There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1942 swing low to 1.2079 high. However, the bulls are defending the 1.2030 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The next major support is near the 1.2010 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1942 swing low to 1.2079 high.

There is also a key connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.2050 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2080 level, above which the pair could rise above the 1.2100 zone.




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LTC and EOS – Are we seeing the establishment of an uptrend?


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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since Tuesday when it fell to $234 at its lowest point. It is currently being traded at $281 which is an increase of 21.45% from Tuesday and is still in an upward trajectory.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Litecoin is currently sitting at the level of its Monday’s high and has found resistance, indicated but the wick on the seller’s side on the hourly candle. However, we have seen a breakout from the descending triangle which is why the momentum looks strong enough to push the price higher.

If we have seen the completion of the corrective move from the 17th, the next move could be the starting five-wave impulse to the upside that is going to make new highs. Another possibility could be that the price is forming the second sub-wave of the higher degree correction in which case the current rise would end as a three-wave formation. But in either way from here another high to around the $310 area would be expected.

From the pullback that would be anticipated after we are going to see which scenario is in play as if the price falls back below $280 again on the pullback, it would invalidate the possibility of the price forming a five-wave impulse. In that case another lower low could be seen below the $230 area but for now the chart of Litecoin looks bullish.






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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Extend Losses


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AUD/USD failed to clear the 0.7800 resistance and corrected lower. NZD/USD is likely to extend losses if there is a clear break below the 0.7150 support.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD


  • The Aussie Dollar failed to gain strength above the 0.7800 level against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7730 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD corrected lower and it is now testing the 0.7150 support zone.
  • There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 0.7180 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After a steady increase, the Aussie Dollar struggled above the 0.7800 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7815 on FXOpen and it recently started a fresh decline.

There was a break below the 0.7780 and 0.7750 support levels. The pair even settled below the 0.7750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 0.7689 and it is now correcting losses.

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It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7764 swing high to 0.7689 low. On the upside, there is a major resistance forming near the 0.7725 and 0.7730 levels. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7730 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7764 swing high to 0.7689 low. The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the trend line.

Therefore, a clear break above the trend line and 0.7730 is must for a steady increase. The next major resistance could be 0.7750, above which the price could rise towards the 0.7800 resistance.

Conversely, the pair could decline below the 0.7700 support zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.7700 and 0.7685 levels, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7650 level.




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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Fresh Increase


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GBP/USD found support near 1.3825 and it is now showing positive signs. GBP/JPY is stable above 149.40 and it is now facing hurdles near 150.00.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY


  • The British Pound tested the 1.3825 support zone and it is now recovering against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • GBP/JPY is holding the main 149.40 and 149.20 support levels.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 149.65 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound saw a steady decline below the 1.3950 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3880 support level.

However, the pair found support near the 1.3825 zone. A low was formed near 1.3823 on FXOpen and the pair recently started a fresh increase. It broke the 1.3850 and 1.3880 resistance levels.

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There was also a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3949 swing high to 1.3823 low.

The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.3750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3949 swing high to 1.3823 low.

If there is a clear upside break above the 1.3900 and 1.3920 levels, there are chances of more upsides. In the stated case, the pair is likely to accelerate higher towards the 1.4000 resistance.

If there is a fresh decline, the previous resistance near 1.3880 or the 50 hourly simple moving average might provide support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3850 level.






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GDP Growth Follows Success In Vaccination Efforts


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The week ahead is marked by two important central banks delivering their monetary policy statements – the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve in the United States. While the two events are crucial for Japanese yen and U.S. dollar traders, the market is also interested in what the GDP data in the United States and Canada will reveal.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world, the GDP or Gross Domestic Product fell sharply in all countries. For the first time, the entire world was in an economic recession.

Last November, the world found out for the first time that vaccines have promising results. Since that moment, a race against the clock started, with the price being not only the defeat of the virus but also a quick economic recovery.

Chinese GDP Growth Signals Strong Bounce in Developed Economies Too

Unfortunately, there are not enough vaccines for everybody at this point, but the situation gets better by the day. The more time passes, the more vaccines will be delivered throughout the world, and the faster the economic recovery will be.

However, because of the inequalities in vaccine deliveries, some countries will experience economic growth faster and stronger than others. Hence, their currencies will likely benefit from it, as well as the stock market.

The Chinese GDP grew by over 18% in the first quarter of the year, when compared to the same quarter a year ago. The bounce was much stronger than expected, and the chances are that the U.S. economic growth will also exceed expectations.

Next Thursday, the advanced GDP in the United States is expected to show that the U.S. economy grew by 6.5% in the first quarter of the year. Judging by how the Chinese economy performed, the chances are that the U.S. economy will also beat expectations.

One day earlier, Jerome Powell will have a hard time explaining to market participants why the Fed is not preparing to taper its asset purchases. As the chart above shows, America is one of the nations that lead in the vaccination race, and so the economic recovery is much stronger – why the need for easing?

To sum up, the bigger the economic expansion, the more difficult for the Fed to keep its policy unchanged. The tapering may be closer than market participants expect.




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BTC and XRP – Strong bullish momentum seen


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BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been decreasing from the 14th of April when it reached $64,735 at its highest point. From there we have seen a decline of 27.56% measured to its lowest point made on the 25th which was at $46,896. A recovery of 16.8% followed as the price came up to $55,000 area on its highest point of the week so far. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a three-wave decrease from the 14th of April which was most likely an WXY correction of the higher degree count. It ended with a double bottom with an impulsive rise that followed.

This could be an early indication that the price decrease ended and that we are seeing the development of the next starting impulse. However, we could have seen another corrective ABC to the upside from the 23rd which would be the corrective WXY continuation wave leading into a lower low.

We are now seeing the price looking for support above the significant horizontal support at $53,369 with a minor triangle forming, so from its breakout direction, we are to see which scenario gets validated.

If we see a breakout to the upside it could mean that the starting impulse is on the move, but if the price starting impulsively moving to the downside it could be an indication that the corrective ABC to the upside ended.




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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains Well Supported


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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 and 1.2050 resistance levels. EUR/JPY also gained momentum and it is now trading well above 130.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY


  • The Euro formed a base above 1.2000 and started a fresh increase above 1.2050.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2075 on the hourly chart.
  • EUR/JPY is also trading in a positive zone above the 131.00 zone.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 131.25 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

There was a steady increase in the Euro started above the 1.1950 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2000 and 1.2050 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

There was also a break above the 1.2100 zone and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.2116 on FXOpen before there was a downside correction.

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The pair traded as low as 1.2056 and it is now attempting a fresh increase. There was already a spike above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2116 high to 1.2056 low. However, the pair is struggling to settle above the 1.2085 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2095 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2116 high to 1.2056 low.

Any more gains could set the pace for a fresh high above the 1.2116 level in the near term. The next key resistance could be near the 1.2140 level. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2075 on the hourly chart.

If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.2050 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.2000 support zone in the near term.




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