Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Dollar Gains on Strong Jobs Data (06.08.2026)​

The dollar index held near 100 after gaining more than 1% last week, supported by strong US employment data. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above forecasts, while unemployment remained at 4.3%.

Markets now assign nearly 70% probability to a December Fed rate hike, although rates are expected to stay unchanged in June.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.7%, a one-week high, tracking higher US yields. Strong US data and higher oil prices linked to Middle East developments added to inflation concerns, while expectations for future BOJ tightening remained in place. Solid first-quarter GDP growth and a healthy current account surplus also highlighted economic resilience.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.57%, its highest level in two weeks, as stronger labor-market data reinforced expectations for tighter policy later this year. Rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to support inflation concerns, keeping bond markets focused on the interest rate outlook.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro slipped below $1.1540, erasing earlier gains and falling to its weakest level since early April
• The Japanese yen weakened past 160 per dollar on Monday, crossing a threshold that frequently sparks official market intervention.
• The British pound gave up early gains, falling below $1.34 to its lowest point since mid-May as the USD rallied on better U.S. labor data.
• The offshore yuan edged up to 6.78 per dollar, recovering modestly after last week's decline.
• Gold traded near $4,300 after falling almost 5% last week, its weakest performance in two months.
• Silver hovered near $68 on Monday following last week's near 10% tumble to a two-month low
• The Nasdaq 100 fell to around 28,957, losing 4.77% with strong US jobs data.
• Bitcoin traded near $63,100, stabilizing after a sharp decline from levels close to $71,000.
• The Nasdaq 100 fell to around 28,957, losing 4.77% as strong US jobs data.

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Euro Slumps Past 1.1540
Gold Stabilizes Near 4,300
Yen Breaches Critical 160
Pound Slips Under 1.34
Silver Plummets Near 68

 

[Z Forex]

Sell Signals and CPI Sirens​

A closely watched Wall Street sentiment has moved back into “sell signal” territory for the third week in a row. The warning comes while global equities remain near record highs, supported by strong inflows into stocks, high-yield bonds, and emerging market assets.

This does not mean a market crash is coming. But in the past, similar readings have often been followed by mild weakness in global stocks over the next one to three months.

The bigger risk now is inflation. Markets have been pricing in a softer policy path from central banks, but sticky CPI data could challenge that view. If inflation remains high, investors may need to rethink expectations for rate cuts and liquidity support.

Bond markets are also flashing a warning. Higher yields can weigh on equity valuations, especially in growth and technology shares.

For now, the message is clear. The market still has momentum, but confidence is becoming stretched. CPI data, central bank guidance, and bond yields may decide whether the rally continues or turns into a sharper correction.

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Hold Defensive Tone (06.09.2026)​

The 10-year US Treasury yield held near 4.57%, close to a two-week high, as strong labor-market data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. While rates are expected to remain unchanged at the upcoming meeting, inflation data later this week will be closely watched. Easing tensions between Iran and Israel also helped reduce oil prices and inflation concerns.

The dollar index slipped below 100, pulling back from a nine-week high as demand for safe-haven assets eased. However, strong US employment data continued to support expectations of tighter Fed policy. Attention now turns to US inflation figures and this week's ECB rate decision.

US stock futures edged lower after technology shares drove gains at the start of the week. Semiconductor stocks helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recover part of their recent losses, while upcoming earnings releases and inflation reports remain the main focus for markets.

• The euro stayed just above $1.15, close to its lowest level since early April.
• The Japanese yen weakened beyond 160 per dollar, a threshold frequently triggering official currency intervention.
• The British pound stabilized around $1.33, matching its lowest point since mid-May.
• The offshore yuan edged up toward 6.78 per dollar, recovering part of last week's decline.
• Gold remained above $4,300 after the pause in hostilities between Iran and Israel.
• Silver stabilized above $67 on Tuesday, alleviating fears of an expanded conflict and cooling energy-driven inflation anxieties.
• Brent crude fell toward $93 per barrel as the halt in attacks Israel reduced immediate supply concerns.
• The NAS100 traded in the 29,400–29,600 range as semiconductor stocks stabilized.
• Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $62,600-$63,500 after briefly dipping below the key $60,000.

Economic Calendar​

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EUR/USD Holds Above $1.15
Gold Holds Near Support
Yen Hovers Past 160
Pound Near May Lows
Silver Holds Multi-Month Lows

 

[Z Forex]

Treasuries Price in More Tightening​

The $31 trillion US Treasury market is increasingly signaling that current interest rates may not be restrictive enough to bring inflation fully under control.

The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.15%, well above the Fed's current policy range of 3.5%-3.75%. The gap, which began widening in March, reflects growing expectations that borrowing costs may need to move higher.

Current pricing points to at least one 25-basis-point rate increase as early as October, supported by strong labor market data and concerns that heavy investment in AI could add further momentum to an already resilient economy.

Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously suggested policy was sufficiently restrictive, bond investors appear less convinced. Inflation risks continue to challenge hopes for lower interest rates in the near term.

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Try to Regain Stability Amid US-Iran Conflicts (06.10.2026)​

The dollar index held near 100 after rebounding in the previous session, supported by renewed US-Iran tensions that lifted oil prices and kept inflation concerns in focus. Attention now turns to upcoming US inflation data.

US 10-year Treasury yields rose to around 4.54% as higher energy prices and stronger labor market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep policy restrictive for longer.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to roughly 2.69% after producer prices surged 6.1% year-on-year in May, a three-year high. The stronger inflation reading strengthened expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase in the coming months.

China’s annual inflation rate held at 1.2% in May, below forecasts. Higher transport costs offset weaker food prices, while core inflation eased and monthly consumer prices recorded a modest decline.

• The euro climbed back toward $1.154 after touching a two-month low.
• The Japanese Yen hovered around 160.3 per Dollar, hovering near its weakest level in over a year.
• The British Pound climbed toward $1.34, rebounding from three-week lows
• Gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, reaching its lowest level since late March.
• Silver dropped toward $64 an ounce on Wednesday, touching its lowest level since late March
• Brent crude moved back above $92 per barrel, recovering after renewed US-Iran tensions
• The Nasdaq 100 slipped below 29,000 following a volatile session marked by sharp swings
• The offshore yuan strengthened toward 6.77 per dollar after China's latest trade figures exceeded expectations.
• Bitcoin traded near $61,421, staying above the recent low around $59,000 after a sharp decline.

Economic Calendar​

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Euro Edges Higher Ahead of ECB
Gold Slides Below $4,200
Yen Stagnates Near Multi-Month Lows
Sterling Recovers Toward $1.34
Silver Drops Toward $64

 

[Z Forex]

China Turns AI Demand Into Export Power​

China is becoming one of the biggest winners of the AI infrastructure boom.

Global demand for chips, servers, data centers, electronics, and automation equipment is lifting China’s high-tech exports. Reports suggest these exports are now generating more than $500 million per hour.

This shows AI is no longer just a software story. It is also reshaping global trade and manufacturing.

China’s export growth is now moving toward higher-value tech goods, while Taiwan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries remain key parts of the supply chain.

Even with tariffs and trade tensions, AI hardware demand is keeping regional trade strong.

The big question is whether this momentum can continue if global growth slows or restrictions get tougher. For now, AI competition is becoming a race for scale, production power, and supply chain control.

 

[Z Forex]

Dollar Strength Persists as Risks Rise (06.11.2026)​

US stock futures moved lower as rising energy prices added to inflation concerns. Oracle fell more than 10% after announcing plans for a $20 billion fundraising round, while attention shifted to Friday's highly anticipated SpaceX IPO.

The dollar index held near 100 as tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz kept inflation concerns alive. Recent US inflation data showed the fastest annual increase in more than three years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates later this year.

US 10-year Treasury yields remained close to 4.55%, supported by persistent inflation pressures and expectations that monetary policy may stay restrictive for longer.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped 2.1% below 63,000 and the Topix lost 1.4%. Technology and AI-related shares led the decline, while expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase next week remained a key theme.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro traded near $1.154, remaining close to its lowest level in more than two months.
• The Japanese yen hovered near 160.5 per dollar, remaining close to its weakest level in nearly two years.
• The British pound traded just under $1.34 as mounting Middle East frictions and expectations of tighter Bank of England policy drove sentiment
• The offshore yuan strengthened toward 6.77 per dollar as producer inflation reached its highest level since 2022
• Gold slipped below $4,100 per ounce after stronger US inflation data.
• Silver held above $63 on Thursday as markets assessed fluid Middle East developments.
• The Nasdaq 100 fell to 28,650 as losses in semiconductor and AI-related shares weighed on the index.
• Brent crude slipped toward $94 per barrel, giving back part of its recent advance.
• Bitcoin remains caught between resistance at 63,200 and support at 60,000 after recent weakness.

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Euro Near Multi-Month Lows
Gold Settles Below $4,100
Yen Soft Near 160.5
Pound Pressured Near $1.34
Silver Stabilizes Above $63

 

[Z Forex]

XAUUSD : Safe-Haven Demand Builds, but the Chart Remains Weak​

Geopolitical tension around Hormuz is supporting safe-haven demand for gold. Still, the technical picture remains weak. Daily indicators are deeply oversold, but momentum has not turned positive yet.

What’s Driving Gold
Gold is trading in a clear risk-off environment. The main driver is geopolitical tension, not a major shift in the rate outlook.

The focus is on escalating US-Iran military action, reported attacks linked to the US Fifth Fleet, and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. These headlines support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Energy risk is also part of the story. Any disruption around Hormuz could lift oil prices and add fresh inflation concerns. That usually keeps traders cautious across markets.

For now, gold is being pulled in two directions. Geopolitical risk supports the metal, but short-term selling pressure and profit-taking are still keeping price action unstable.

Technical View
The chart does not fully support a clean bullish move yet.

Gold remains below the 50-day SMA, while the MACD is still falling. This shows that the main trend and momentum are still weak.

At the same time, RSI(14) is at 21.8, and price is trading below the lower Bollinger Band. This shows a deeply oversold market. So, the downside may be stretched in the short term.

Price is also testing the lower area around the long-term trend zone near 4,100. A stable move back above 4,100 and 4,135 could ease some pressure. If gold fails to recover this area, sellers may keep control.

Key Levels

• Immediate resistance: 4,100 / 4,135
• Next resistance: 4,250
• Major resistance zone: 4,450 / 4,500
• Immediate support: 4,000
• Next support: 3,900

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical risk: Hormuz tension and US-Iran escalation continue to support safe-haven demand.
• Trend: Gold remains below the 50-day SMA, keeping the short-term structure weak.
• Momentum: MACD is still falling, so buyers have not regained control yet.
• Oversold signals: RSI at 21.8 and price below the lower Bollinger Band suggest rebound risk is rising.
• Volatility: ATR remains elevated, so sharp moves in both directions are still possible.

Scenario
Gold has a reason to rebound because the market is deeply oversold and geopolitical risk remains high. But the chart still needs confirmation.
A recovery above 4,100 and 4,135 could support a short-term bounce. Until then, rallies may stay fragile, and the market may remain choppy.

 

[Z Forex]

ECB Hike Fails to Lift Euro (06.12.2026)​

U.S. stock futures stabilized on Friday as market participants pivoted attention to the landmark public debut of SpaceX. The aerospace giant is projected to launch what could become the largest initial public offering in history, with an estimated valuation nearing $1.8 trillion. Broader investor sentiment remains supported by recent strong gains across major equity indexes and encouraging diplomatic signals pointing to progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to a one-week low near 2.65% ahead of next week's highly anticipated Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. Economists broadly forecast a 25 basis point rate increase to 1%, driven by sticky domestic inflation and currency weakness. Notably, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss the policy proceedings due to hospitalization. The debt market found additional support from declining U.S. Treasury yields and a cooling geopolitical risk premium.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.47% following a sharp drop in the prior session. Optimism over a breakthrough in Washington–Tehran relations pulled crude prices lower, directly reducing immediate inflation anxieties and relieving pressure on sovereign bonds. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop remains complicated; recent data revealed that U.S. producer inflation accelerated at its fastest annual clip since late 2022, ensuring the Federal Reserve keeps future interest rate hikes on the table.

The U.S. dollar index edged up to approximately 99.8, though it stayed capped as safe-haven demand receded. Sentiment turned positive after President Trump hinted that a peace accord could be finalized within days, pushing energy markets lower. However, underlying dollar support persists after May producer prices jumped 6.5% year-on-year, reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Fed bias.

• The euro traded near 1.1570, hitting its lowest point since early April.
• The Japanese yen softened toward 160.2 per dollar, paring earlier gains.
• The British pound consolidated just under $1.34 as expectations of further BoE tightening.
• Brent crude tumbled to approximately $89 per barrel, hitting a nearly two-month low.
• The Nasdaq-100 jumped 3.29% to 29,446.18 as cooling Middle East frictions lifted risk appetite.
• The offshore yuan appreciated toward 6.76 per dollar as investors evaluated China's latest inflation prints.
• Gold maintained its footing near $4,200 on Friday following a 3% rebound in the previous session.
• Silver stabilized near $67 after a previous 6% rebound, supported by easing inflation concerns.
• Bitcoin traded near $63,630 after recovering from recent drops, consolidating within a $61,139–$63,964 window.

Economic Calendar​

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Euro Retreats Post-ECB Hike
Gold Pauses Near $4,200
Yen Softens Prior to BOJ
Pound Holds Below $1.34
Silver Hovers Around $67

 

[Z Forex]

ECB Hike Fails to Lift Euro (06.12.2026)​

U.S. stock futures stabilized on Friday as market participants pivoted attention to the landmark public debut of SpaceX. The aerospace giant is projected to launch what could become the largest initial public offering in history, with an estimated valuation nearing $1.8 trillion. Broader investor sentiment remains supported by recent strong gains across major equity indexes and encouraging diplomatic signals pointing to progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to a one-week low near 2.65% ahead of next week's highly anticipated Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. Economists broadly forecast a 25 basis point rate increase to 1%, driven by sticky domestic inflation and currency weakness. Notably, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss the policy proceedings due to hospitalization. The debt market found additional support from declining U.S. Treasury yields and a cooling geopolitical risk premium.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.47% following a sharp drop in the prior session. Optimism over a breakthrough in Washington–Tehran relations pulled crude prices lower, directly reducing immediate inflation anxieties and relieving pressure on sovereign bonds. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop remains complicated; recent data revealed that U.S. producer inflation accelerated at its fastest annual clip since late 2022, ensuring the Federal Reserve keeps future interest rate hikes on the table.

The U.S. dollar index edged up to approximately 99.8, though it stayed capped as safe-haven demand receded. Sentiment turned positive after President Trump hinted that a peace accord could be finalized within days, pushing energy markets lower. However, underlying dollar support persists after May producer prices jumped 6.5% year-on-year, reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Fed bias.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Retreats Post-ECB Hike​

The euro spiked before retracing after the European Central Bank delivered an expected 25 basis point rate increase, hitting its lowest level since early April before stabilizing.

Citing elevated energy costs and Iran-related geopolitical risks, policymakers raised inflation projections while modestly lowering growth outlooks. Also, the U.S. dollar retained firm backing, sustained by ongoing Middle East instability and persistent safe-haven capital flows.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1600, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1540.

Gold Pauses Near $4,200​

Gold stabilized near $4,200 on Friday following a 3% surge in the previous session, as easing geopolitical anxieties were driven by optimism surrounding a potential U.S.–Iran peace accord.

President Trump indicated an agreement could be imminent, alongside reports suggesting Iranian willingness to comply. Recent ECB rate hikes and strong U.S. inflation figures continue to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.

First resistance is seen at $4220, with initial support near $4150.

Yen Softens Prior to BOJ​

The Japanese yen softened toward 160.2 per dollar on Friday, paring earlier gains as investors positioned ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan policy decision. The BOJ is widely anticipated to lift interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, marking its first hike since December and its highest policy level since 1995. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss the proceedings due to hospitalization.

While the yen previously found support from broad dollar weakness on hopes of a U.S.–Iran accord, Japan remains highly exposed to Middle East frictions due to its heavy reliance on imported energy.

Initial resistance stands at 160.90, while the first support is located at 159.40.

Pound Holds Below $1.34​

The British pound consolidated just under $1.34 as intensifying Middle East hostilities and expectations of further Bank of England tightening shaped market sentiment. Fresh U.S.–Iran military strikes drove geopolitical risks higher, while surging energy costs aggravated inflation anxieties.

Investors now fully price in at least one BoE interest rate hike by September, despite internal policymaker debate regarding whether current monetary settings are already sufficiently restrictive.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3410, with support around 1.3320.

Silver Hovers Around $67​

Silver stabilized near $67 after a prior 6% rebound, buoyed by weakening inflation fears and progress toward a U.S.–Iran peace agreement signaled by President Trump.

Meanwhile, recent ECB interest rate hikes and hot U.S. producer price data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tightening cycle.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $68.50, while support is located around $65.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude tumbled to approximately $89 per barrel, hitting a nearly two-month low following reports of a potential U.S.–Iran peace accord. President Trump indicated an agreement could be imminent, which would ease shipping frictions around the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, underlying market uncertainty persists as infrastructure damage, lingering maritime security risks, and prolonged production halts could delay a full recovery in global oil supplies.

Resistance is seen at 90.00, while the nearest support stands at 87.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 jumped 3.29% to 29,446.18 as cooling Middle East frictions lifted risk appetite, sparking a major technology rebound. Dropping crude costs and lower Treasury yields fueled the advance despite lingering inflation anxieties.

Overhead resistance looms near 29,500–29,600, while support remains solid around 28,730, with macroeconomic and geopolitical developments driving immediate market direction.

Resistance stands at 29,600, while the nearest support is located at 29,100.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan appreciated toward 6.76 per dollar as investors evaluated China's latest inflation prints. May consumer prices rose 1.2% year-on-year, missing forecasts and signaling soft domestic consumption. However, producer inflation accelerated to 3.9%, reaching a level not seen since 2022, influenced by elevated energy and commodity inputs.

While escalating Middle East tensions worsen energy costs, tepid consumer demand prevents a wider inflationary pass-through, leaving corporate profit margins vulnerable to upstream pricing pressures.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8050, with support positioned near 6.7450.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $63,630 after recovering from recent drops, consolidating within a $61,139–$63,964 window. Momentum metrics display initial improvement as buyers re-enter, though underlying trend dynamics remain mixed.

Key resistance looms around $63,000–$65,000, while support anchors near $61,000. Imminent options expiry activity and inflation-driven market sentiment continue to dictate immediate direction.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 63,800, while support is at 61,000.