Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Dollar Gains on Strong Jobs Data (06.08.2026)​

The dollar index held near 100 after gaining more than 1% last week, supported by strong US employment data. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above forecasts, while unemployment remained at 4.3%.

Markets now assign nearly 70% probability to a December Fed rate hike, although rates are expected to stay unchanged in June.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.7%, a one-week high, tracking higher US yields. Strong US data and higher oil prices linked to Middle East developments added to inflation concerns, while expectations for future BOJ tightening remained in place. Solid first-quarter GDP growth and a healthy current account surplus also highlighted economic resilience.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.57%, its highest level in two weeks, as stronger labor-market data reinforced expectations for tighter policy later this year. Rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to support inflation concerns, keeping bond markets focused on the interest rate outlook.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro slipped below $1.1540, erasing earlier gains and falling to its weakest level since early April
• The Japanese yen weakened past 160 per dollar on Monday, crossing a threshold that frequently sparks official market intervention.
• The British pound gave up early gains, falling below $1.34 to its lowest point since mid-May as the USD rallied on better U.S. labor data.
• The offshore yuan edged up to 6.78 per dollar, recovering modestly after last week's decline.
• Gold traded near $4,300 after falling almost 5% last week, its weakest performance in two months.
• Silver hovered near $68 on Monday following last week's near 10% tumble to a two-month low
• The Nasdaq 100 fell to around 28,957, losing 4.77% with strong US jobs data.
• Bitcoin traded near $63,100, stabilizing after a sharp decline from levels close to $71,000.
• The Nasdaq 100 fell to around 28,957, losing 4.77% as strong US jobs data.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Slumps Past 1.1540
Gold Stabilizes Near 4,300
Yen Breaches Critical 160
Pound Slips Under 1.34
Silver Plummets Near 68

 

[Z Forex]

Sell Signals and CPI Sirens​

A closely watched Wall Street sentiment has moved back into “sell signal” territory for the third week in a row. The warning comes while global equities remain near record highs, supported by strong inflows into stocks, high-yield bonds, and emerging market assets.

This does not mean a market crash is coming. But in the past, similar readings have often been followed by mild weakness in global stocks over the next one to three months.

The bigger risk now is inflation. Markets have been pricing in a softer policy path from central banks, but sticky CPI data could challenge that view. If inflation remains high, investors may need to rethink expectations for rate cuts and liquidity support.

Bond markets are also flashing a warning. Higher yields can weigh on equity valuations, especially in growth and technology shares.

For now, the message is clear. The market still has momentum, but confidence is becoming stretched. CPI data, central bank guidance, and bond yields may decide whether the rally continues or turns into a sharper correction.

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Hold Defensive Tone (06.09.2026)​

The 10-year US Treasury yield held near 4.57%, close to a two-week high, as strong labor-market data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. While rates are expected to remain unchanged at the upcoming meeting, inflation data later this week will be closely watched. Easing tensions between Iran and Israel also helped reduce oil prices and inflation concerns.

The dollar index slipped below 100, pulling back from a nine-week high as demand for safe-haven assets eased. However, strong US employment data continued to support expectations of tighter Fed policy. Attention now turns to US inflation figures and this week's ECB rate decision.

US stock futures edged lower after technology shares drove gains at the start of the week. Semiconductor stocks helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recover part of their recent losses, while upcoming earnings releases and inflation reports remain the main focus for markets.

• The euro stayed just above $1.15, close to its lowest level since early April.
• The Japanese yen weakened beyond 160 per dollar, a threshold frequently triggering official currency intervention.
• The British pound stabilized around $1.33, matching its lowest point since mid-May.
• The offshore yuan edged up toward 6.78 per dollar, recovering part of last week's decline.
• Gold remained above $4,300 after the pause in hostilities between Iran and Israel.
• Silver stabilized above $67 on Tuesday, alleviating fears of an expanded conflict and cooling energy-driven inflation anxieties.
• Brent crude fell toward $93 per barrel as the halt in attacks Israel reduced immediate supply concerns.
• The NAS100 traded in the 29,400–29,600 range as semiconductor stocks stabilized.
• Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $62,600-$63,500 after briefly dipping below the key $60,000.

Economic Calendar​

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Holds Above $1.15
Gold Holds Near Support
Yen Hovers Past 160
Pound Near May Lows
Silver Holds Multi-Month Lows

 

[Z Forex]

Treasuries Price in More Tightening​

The $31 trillion US Treasury market is increasingly signaling that current interest rates may not be restrictive enough to bring inflation fully under control.

The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.15%, well above the Fed's current policy range of 3.5%-3.75%. The gap, which began widening in March, reflects growing expectations that borrowing costs may need to move higher.

Current pricing points to at least one 25-basis-point rate increase as early as October, supported by strong labor market data and concerns that heavy investment in AI could add further momentum to an already resilient economy.

Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously suggested policy was sufficiently restrictive, bond investors appear less convinced. Inflation risks continue to challenge hopes for lower interest rates in the near term.