Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Iran has seen the smallest production decline since the war began, with output down around 11%, while other Gulf producers face much steeper losses.

Saudi Arabia (-29%) and the UAE (-40%) have been partly protected by pipeline routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but Iraq (-63%) and Kuwait (-69%) have taken the heaviest hit as export flows remain restricted.

Outside the Gulf, the picture is very different. Venezuela’s production has climbed to a seven-year high, while Libya continues to hold near a 13-year high.

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Lean Cautiously Risk-On (05.11.2026)​

Global markets remained focused on the intersection of geopolitics and policy as investors tracked developments around Iran and the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing on May 13–15. Discussions are expected to cover the fragile ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz, trade tensions, Taiwan, and rare earth exports, while both sides also prepare agreements tied to agriculture, Boeing aircraft, and technology cooperation.

US equities closed the week at fresh highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending gains on strong labor data, resilient earnings, and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The broader rally persisted despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.

The dollar index slipped below 98, its weakest level in ten weeks, even after strong employment figures. Markets continued balancing solid US economic data against concerns that higher energy prices could keep inflation pressure in place and delay future Fed easing.

Bond markets reflected a more cautious tone. US Treasury yields moved lower as investors sought safety following weaker consumer sentiment data, while Japan’s 10-year yield climbed on stronger wage growth and renewed concern over energy costs tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

• EUR/USD climbed above 1.175, reaching its strongest level in several weeks.
• Japanese yen remained around 157 per dollar, ending the week largely flat .
• GBP/USD is trading around 1.3590, maintaining levels near multi-month peaks.
• Offshore yuan remained near 6.80, holding close to its strongest level in more than three years.
• Gold slipped below $4,700 after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal.
• Silver is trading around $80.24, consolidating near multi-year highs.
• Brent crude surged above $104 per barrel, gaining more than 3%.
• Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 continued trading near record highs.
• Bitcoin traded around $81,000, extending its recent recovery

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Rises on Easing Geopolitical Risks
Gold Falls Below 4,700
Yen Holds Steady Near 157
Sterling Holds Near Highs
Silver Consolidates Near Multi-Year Peaks

Economic Calendar​

 

[Z Forex]

Euro Holds Firm as ECB Bets Rise (05.12.2026)​

President Trump described the US-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support” after dismissing Tehran’s latest proposal, which reportedly included sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and continued Iranian influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Even with diplomatic channels still open, the standoff continues to unsettle energy markets, keeping oil prices firm and shipping routes under pressure.

The shift has quickly filtered into bond markets. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since 1997 as traders increased expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase, driven by rising fuel costs and broader inflation pressure. In the United States, Treasury yields also pushed higher as concerns grew that borrowing costs may remain restrictive longer than previously expected.

The dollar regained momentum as investors moved back toward defensive positioning. Ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz and the possibility of renewed confrontation continued to support energy prices, leaving inflation concerns firmly in place. Attention now turns to upcoming US inflation figures and the planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this week.

Equity futures traded with a softer tone ahead of the inflation release, though enthusiasm around artificial intelligence continued to keep major technology and semiconductor shares close to record territory.

• The euro stayed above $1.175, maintaining levels near a three-week high.
• The Japanese yen slipped to around 157.5 per dollar for a second day as a dominant dollar.
• GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias near 1.36, consolidating close to multi-month peaks.
• The offshore yuan remained firm near 6.79 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023
• Gold prices dipped toward $4,720 as a strong dollar weighed on the metal.
• Silver fell toward $85 as initial gains disappeared.
• Brent crude climbed above $105 per barrel as renewed strain between the United States and Iran.
• The US 100 Tech Index advanced toward 29,204, extending a powerful rally
• Bitcoin traded near $81,200, easing slightly after stalling below the key $82,000 barrier

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Holds Near Peaks
Gold Falls Toward 4,720
Yen Weakens Toward 157.5
Sterling Eyes 1.36 Level
Silver Dips Toward 85

Economic Calendar​