Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Iran has seen the smallest production decline since the war began, with output down around 11%, while other Gulf producers face much steeper losses.

Saudi Arabia (-29%) and the UAE (-40%) have been partly protected by pipeline routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but Iraq (-63%) and Kuwait (-69%) have taken the heaviest hit as export flows remain restricted.

Outside the Gulf, the picture is very different. Venezuela’s production has climbed to a seven-year high, while Libya continues to hold near a 13-year high.

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Lean Cautiously Risk-On (05.11.2026)​

Global markets remained focused on the intersection of geopolitics and policy as investors tracked developments around Iran and the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing on May 13–15. Discussions are expected to cover the fragile ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz, trade tensions, Taiwan, and rare earth exports, while both sides also prepare agreements tied to agriculture, Boeing aircraft, and technology cooperation.

US equities closed the week at fresh highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending gains on strong labor data, resilient earnings, and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The broader rally persisted despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.

The dollar index slipped below 98, its weakest level in ten weeks, even after strong employment figures. Markets continued balancing solid US economic data against concerns that higher energy prices could keep inflation pressure in place and delay future Fed easing.

Bond markets reflected a more cautious tone. US Treasury yields moved lower as investors sought safety following weaker consumer sentiment data, while Japan’s 10-year yield climbed on stronger wage growth and renewed concern over energy costs tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

• EUR/USD climbed above 1.175, reaching its strongest level in several weeks.
• Japanese yen remained around 157 per dollar, ending the week largely flat .
• GBP/USD is trading around 1.3590, maintaining levels near multi-month peaks.
• Offshore yuan remained near 6.80, holding close to its strongest level in more than three years.
• Gold slipped below $4,700 after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal.
• Silver is trading around $80.24, consolidating near multi-year highs.
• Brent crude surged above $104 per barrel, gaining more than 3%.
• Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 continued trading near record highs.
• Bitcoin traded around $81,000, extending its recent recovery

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Euro Rises on Easing Geopolitical Risks
Gold Falls Below 4,700
Yen Holds Steady Near 157
Sterling Holds Near Highs
Silver Consolidates Near Multi-Year Peaks

Economic Calendar​

 

[Z Forex]

Euro Holds Firm as ECB Bets Rise (05.12.2026)​

President Trump described the US-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support” after dismissing Tehran’s latest proposal, which reportedly included sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and continued Iranian influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Even with diplomatic channels still open, the standoff continues to unsettle energy markets, keeping oil prices firm and shipping routes under pressure.

The shift has quickly filtered into bond markets. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since 1997 as traders increased expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase, driven by rising fuel costs and broader inflation pressure. In the United States, Treasury yields also pushed higher as concerns grew that borrowing costs may remain restrictive longer than previously expected.

The dollar regained momentum as investors moved back toward defensive positioning. Ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz and the possibility of renewed confrontation continued to support energy prices, leaving inflation concerns firmly in place. Attention now turns to upcoming US inflation figures and the planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this week.

Equity futures traded with a softer tone ahead of the inflation release, though enthusiasm around artificial intelligence continued to keep major technology and semiconductor shares close to record territory.

• The euro stayed above $1.175, maintaining levels near a three-week high.
• The Japanese yen slipped to around 157.5 per dollar for a second day as a dominant dollar.
• GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias near 1.36, consolidating close to multi-month peaks.
• The offshore yuan remained firm near 6.79 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023
• Gold prices dipped toward $4,720 as a strong dollar weighed on the metal.
• Silver fell toward $85 as initial gains disappeared.
• Brent crude climbed above $105 per barrel as renewed strain between the United States and Iran.
• The US 100 Tech Index advanced toward 29,204, extending a powerful rally
• Bitcoin traded near $81,200, easing slightly after stalling below the key $82,000 barrier

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Euro Holds Near Peaks
Gold Falls Toward 4,720
Yen Weakens Toward 157.5
Sterling Eyes 1.36 Level
Silver Dips Toward 85

Economic Calendar​

 

[Z Forex]

Yields Rise While Metals Trade Mixed (05.13.2026)​

Iran’s oil flows from Kharg Island, the country’s main export hub, appear to have stalled for several days for the first time since the conflict began, according to satellite imagery. With tanker movement through the Persian Gulf still restricted, storage facilities and offshore vessels are rapidly filling, increasing the likelihood that Tehran may need to cut production further if exports remain frozen.

Bond markets reacted quickly to the supply strain. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed close to 2.59%, reaching its highest level since 1997, as traders leaned further into expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase driven by oil-related inflation pressure. In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 4.46% after stronger inflation figures weakened the case for near-term Fed easing.

The dollar also regained strength, holding above 98 after April inflation accelerated to 3.8%, with higher fuel costs playing a major role. Focus now shifts to upcoming producer price data for a clearer read on whether inflation pressure is broadening.

Equity futures traded more cautiously after a mixed Wall Street session, where rising oil prices and renewed concern around the US–Iran conflict weighed on technology shares. Investors are now balancing strong corporate earnings against the growing possibility that borrowing costs may remain restrictive longer than previously expected.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro softened toward $1.17 as investors weighed escalating U.S.–Iran friction against the likelihood of more ECB rate hikes.
• The Japanese yen slipped toward 158 per dollar as strong U.S. inflation data strengthened the dollar and solidified expectations for a restrictive Federal Reserve.
• The British pound dipped to $1.354, retreating from recent two-month peaks as a severe leadership crisis and U.S.–Iran friction dampened sentiment.
• The offshore yuan held near 6.79 per dollar for a second straight session, staying close to its strongest level since February 2023.
• Gold dropped below $4,700 as strong U.S. inflation data lowered hopes for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Silver climbed past $87 per ounce, marking a two-month peak as high demand from the electronics and renewable energy sectors fueled a rally.
• Brent crude slipped below $107 per barrel, ending a three-session advance even as supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved.
• The Nasdaq 100 traded near 29,065, falling roughly 0.87% after strong US inflation data.
• Bitcoin traded between $80,500 and $81,000, holding above the key $78,200 support zone after recent volatility.

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Euro Eases Toward 1.17
Gold Weakens as Yields Rise
Yen Weakens Toward 158
Sterling Softens Amid Political Crisis
Silver Hits Two-Month High

 

[Z Forex]

Bonds Slide on Inflation Fears​

US Treasury yields surged as Producer Price Index data showed a 6% annual jump for April, the highest since 2022. Rising energy costs linked to the Iran conflict have significantly amplified production and transport expenses, leading markets to anticipate a more aggressive Federal Reserve.

Key market reactions:

• 10-year Treasury yields approached July peaks
• US crude stabilized near $102
• Rate hike bets increased among futures traders

Markets are increasingly concerned that energy-driven price pressures will force the central bank to sustain restrictive policy throughout 2026.

 

[Z Forex]

Higher Rate Expectations Keep Markets Defensive (05.14.2026)​

Inflation has pushed back to the center of the market narrative, keeping both the dollar and bond yields firmly supported.

The dollar index hovered near 98.5, holding onto strong weekly gains after fresh US inflation figures strengthened the case for a longer period of restrictive Federal Reserve policy.

Producer prices recorded their sharpest annual rise since 2022, while consumer inflation climbed to 3.8%, the highest level since May 2023, driven by energy costs linked to the Iran conflict.

That pressure flowed directly into fixed income markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained near 4.46%, staying close to levels last seen in June 2025 as traders moved further away from rate-cut expectations.

Japan’s bond market reacted even more aggressively. The 10-year JGB yield approached 2.6%, its highest point since 1997, as rising oil prices and persistent inflation strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan may be forced to continue normalizing policy.

Economic Calendar​

• EUR/USD eased back toward 1.17 after briefly approaching a three-week peak.
• USD/JPY moved gradually toward 158 as continued dollar strength kept the pair supported.
• The British pound fell to $1.35, hitting its lowest point since late April.
• The offshore yuan remained close to 6.78 per dollar, holding near its strongest level since February 2023.
• Gold declined under $4,700 for a third consecutive session as strong U.S. inflation data fueled expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve.
• Silver maintained its upward momentum in May 2026, holding steady above $86.
• Brent crude stabilized above $105 per barrel, pausing after a strong rally as focus shifted toward the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting.
• The US100 Tech Index climbed beyond 29,300, adding more than 1% in the latest session.
• Bitcoin traded near $79,200, slipping slightly from the previous session.

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Euro Retreats Toward 1.17
Gold Drops Below 4,700
USD/JPY Nears 158
Sterling Dips to 1.35
Silver Holds Above 86

 

[Z Forex]

Dollar Strength Pressures Euro and Precious Metals (05.15.2026)​

Bond markets ended the week under continued pressure from inflation and energy costs. Japan's 10-year government bond yield pushed toward 2.7%, its highest level in almost ten years, after producer inflation accelerated to 4.9% in April. Higher oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict continued feeding price pressure, while BOJ policymaker Kazuyuki Masu openly supported a faster path toward rate increases.

US yields followed the same direction. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.5%, reaching a one-year high as recent inflation data strengthened the case for tighter Federal Reserve policy. Wholesale inflation recorded its sharpest rise since 2022, while consumer prices posted their strongest increase since 2023, driven largely by energy costs. Markets have now started considering the possibility of another Fed increase before year-end.

The dollar also gained traction, with the DXY approaching 99 and heading for a weekly rise of more than 1%. Stronger inflation readings and fading expectations for policy easing continued to support the currency, while attention still lingers on the Trump–Xi meetings in Beijing.

Equity markets paused after another record-setting run on Wall Street. Futures traded little changed as technology shares held onto strong momentum. Cisco rallied after lifting its outlook, and Nvidia extended gains after Washington approved additional chip exports to China, reinforcing optimism around the AI-driven rally.

Economic Calendar​

• EUR/USD is trading near 1.1650 as investors assess frozen U.S.–Iran negotiations.
• The Japanese yen dropped to approximately 158.5 on Friday, capping a weekly decline of over 1%.
• GBP/USD declined to 1.3368 as a dominant U.S. dollar and intensifying UK political instability weighed on the pound
• The offshore yuan softened toward 6.79 per dollar, stepping back from a multi-year high.
• Gold declined toward $4,600 per ounce this Friday, marking a 2% weekly loss.
• Silver declined toward $81 per ounce on Friday, marking its second straight day of losses.
• Brent crude climbed above $106 per barrel, heading for a weekly advance of more than 5%
• The NAS100 traded close to record territory near 29,372, extending a powerful rally
• Bitcoin surged more than 2.5% to around $81,420, breaking above the recent consolidation range

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EUR/USD Tests 1.1650
Gold Slips Toward 4,600
Yen Weakens Toward 158.5
Sterling Hits Four-Week Low
Silver Continued to Drop for Two Days

 

[Z Forex]

The AI Rally Faces Its Next Test (05.18.2026)​

US stock futures slipped while attention turned to Nvidia earnings and upcoming results from Walmart and Target for a clearer read on AI momentum and consumer spending.

Oil prices and inflation concerns stayed at the center of markets as US–Iran tensions continued, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy tighter for longer.

The dollar index climbed above 99.3 to a six-week high, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.63%, its highest level since January 2025. Markets are now looking toward the upcoming FOMC minutes and PMI data for further direction.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a 29-year high near 2.8% as rising energy costs and yen weakness strengthened expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Comments from BOJ official Kazuyuki Masu calling for faster tightening added to the move.

• EUR/USD stayed on the defensive near the 1.1620 region as demand for the US dollar remained firm.
• The yen weakened toward the 159 level against the dollar, extending its losing streak.
• GBP/USD traded with mixed momentum as near-term technical support helped stabilize the pair around 1.3350.
• The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.81 per dollar as softer Chinese economic data continued weighing on sentiment.
• Gold slipped below $4,550 per ounce after last week’s steep decline, with the stronger dollar and climbing Treasury yields.
• Silver dropped below $75 per ounce, marking a third consecutive daily decline as stronger inflation pressures.
• Brent crude climbed above $107.5 per barrel, building on last week’s gains as supply concerns.
• The Nasdaq 100 moved lower toward 28,878 as markets paused after a strong AI-driven advance
• Bitcoin traded near 76,925 as the market entered a consolidation phase following recent highs

Economic Calendar​

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Dollar Strength Pressures EUR/USD
Bullion Cracks Under Inflation Weight
USD/JPY is Back in the Danger Zone
GBP/USD Searches for Direction
Silver Dragged into a Deeper Pullback

 

[Z Forex]

Stocks and Yields Are Rising Together, But Can It Last?​

Both Japan’s Nikkei and the US Nasdaq are pushing higher while bond yields are also climbing. This is not the usual setup, because higher yields often pressure equities, especially tech and growth stocks.

In Japan, the move is important because markets are shifting away from the old ultra-low-rate environment. Stocks are still strong, but higher JGB yields mean borrowing costs are no longer as friendly as before.

The US has a similar picture. AI optimism and strong tech earnings are supporting Nasdaq, while rising Treasury yields are making valuations harder to justify.

For now, equity momentum is winning. But if yields keep rising too fast, investors may start comparing expensive stock prices with safer bond returns. That could make the rally more fragile, especially in markets already priced for strong growth.

 

[Z Forex]

China Demand Keeps Copper Surging​

Sentiment toward copper continued to strengthen as long positions climbed to their highest levels in months.

Copper prices in New York also surged to a fresh record near $6.7 per pound, supported by strong demand from China and growing supply concerns.

The rally has stayed intact despite mounting pressure from inflation and global tensions.

 

[Z Forex]

Oil Above $110 Begins to Pressure Equities​

Brent crude climbed above $110 as US-Iran tensions intensified, shifting focus away from the AI-driven rally and back toward inflation and rising energy costs.

Bond yields remained near multi-year highs, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continued to add pressure across equities and corporate earnings.

 

[Z Forex]

Is the Worst of the Energy Shock Over? (05.21.2026)​

Signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations brought some relief to global markets, easing concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and pulling oil prices away from recent highs. The shift also softened inflation worries, though the policy outlook remains uncertain as major central banks continue navigating stubborn price pressures.

The ECB still faces pressure from high energy costs, while softer UK inflation and labour data have reduced expectations for further BOE tightening.

Debate continues over whether the Fed has finished raising rates in the US. Technology stocks extended their advance, gold and silver retained support from geopolitical uncertainty, and currency markets remained active, with the yen benefiting from intervention speculation while weak Eurozone growth weighed on the euro.

• The euro slipped below 1.16, reaching its weakest level since early April.
• The yen strengthened beyond 159 per dollar as softer oil prices and a weaker dollar improved demand for the currency.
• Sterling traded just below 1.34 after inflation slowed to 2.8% in April
• The offshore yuan remained near 6.80 after China's central bank left benchmark lending rates unchanged
• Gold stayed above $4,500 after a strong rebound in the previous session
• Silver held above $75 as improving sentiment surrounding US-Iran relations helped steady commodity markets
• Brent crude stabilized above $105 after a sharp selloff.
• The US 100 Tech Index climbed to 29,187, extending a strong advance.
• Bitcoin traded near 77,876, posting modest gains while remaining largely range-bound over recent weeks.

Economic Calendar​

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Europe’s Growth Problem Takes Over
A Pause in the Precious Metals Battle
Export Strength Gives the Yen a Lift
Inflation Relief Changes the Conversation
ilver Finds Some Breathing Room

 

[Z Forex]

Japan’s Inflation Slows, Yields Rise (05.22.2026)​

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield held near 2.78%, remaining close to a three-decade high despite softer inflation data. Core inflation slowed to 1.4% in April from 1.8% in March, its lowest level in four years and below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a third consecutive month.

Across the Pacific, US Treasury markets showed greater stability. The 10-year Treasury yield held around 4.57% after two consecutive sessions of declines, as mixed signals from US-Iran negotiations left the outlook for inflation and interest rates less clear.

The same uncertainty carried over into currency markets. The dollar index traded near 99.2, close to a six-week high, while reports that recent negotiations had narrowed some differences between Washington and Tehran were balanced against lingering questions surrounding inflation and monetary policy.

The euro drifted back toward 1.16 after fresh PMI figures painted a weaker picture of the Eurozone economy.
The yen drifted toward 159 per dollar and moved closer to a second consecutive weekly loss.
Sterling held near 1.343 even as fresh PMI data showed the UK economy slipping into contraction during May
The offshore yuan held near 6.80 per dollar for a second consecutive session.
Gold remained above $4,500 as conflicting headlines from Washington and Tehran left the market searching for direction.
Silver stayed above $76 and headed for a largely unchanged week as developments in US-Iran negotiations
The US 100 Tech Index traded at 29,354, gaining 60 points from the previous session.
Brent crude futures climbed above $104 per barrel. Despite the rebound, Brent still ended the week more than 4% lower.
Bitcoin traded at $77,683, rising 0.18%, from the previous session.

Economic Calendar​

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Europe’s Recovery Stumbles Again
Diplomacy Offers Hope for Gold
Softer Inflation Takes Pressure Off the BOJ
Britain’s Growth Streak Comes to an End
Silver Marks Time as Talks Continue