Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

BTC/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.11.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's fundamental outlook for BTC-USD is influenced by the upcoming USD economic data release from the US Department of the Treasury, namely the Monthly Treasury Statement. This data reflects the difference between the federal government’s income and spending. A positive actual value above forecast typically strengthens the USD, potentially exerting downward pressure on BTCUSD. Traders must closely monitor today's economic calendar as this could lead to increased volatility in the BTCUSD pair.


Price Action:
BTC USD H4 price action analysis reveals the asset recently struggled below the crucial resistance level of 110520. After considerable consolidation below this resistance, BTCUSD exhibited a robust bullish breakout, establishing a new all-time high (ATH) with a clear "Three White Soldiers" candlestick pattern. The pair is currently heading toward the upper boundary of its ascending channel. Given the recent sharp upward move, traders should prepare for a possible corrective pullback in the short term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned below the price candles, confirming ongoing bullish sentiment. Traders may interpret this as a signal to hold long positions, yet caution is warranted due to potential short-term corrections.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI has reached 77.59, clearly signaling that BTCUSD is in overbought territory. This suggests a potential imminent correction or consolidation phase, as excessive buying might taper off in the near term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is above the zero line and continues to grow, indicating strong bullish momentum. Despite this bullish signal, traders should stay alert to signs of divergence, as momentum could shift rapidly due to overbought conditions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at the previously broken resistance level of 110520, now acting as crucial support.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 114500, representing the next target area for bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTC/USD H4 chart analysis shows robust bullish momentum, validated by the Parabolic SAR, RSI, and MACD indicators. Despite the strong bullish bias indicated by price action, overbought conditions highlighted by the RSI suggest a possible imminent correction. Traders should maintain caution, carefully monitoring the reaction at the ascending channel's upper boundary. Additionally, the upcoming US Monthly Treasury Statement data release could introduce volatility, influencing short-term BTCUSD price movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.11.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.14.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/CHF pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). Today, liquidity in EUR could be lower due to French banks observing the National Day holiday, typically resulting in irregular volatility. Meanwhile, the upcoming release from the Eurogroup meeting could significantly impact EUR movements depending on their policy stance and economic decisions. For CHF, traders are awaiting the Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Federal Statistical Office, a critical indicator influencing consumer inflation expectations and consequently CHF strength.


Price Action:
Analyzing the EUR-CHF pair on the H4 timeframe reveals a persistent bearish trend originating from around 2021. The price has recently approached the strong support zone around 0.92300, coinciding closely with the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, highlighting a Price Reversal Zone (PRZ). However, recent bearish momentum seems robust, indicating the current bullish attempts might merely be corrections, and a retest of the 0.92300 support level could be imminent.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are indicating a tight range at the bottom band near the 0.92300 support level, suggesting potential for a reversal or consolidation. Nevertheless, the recent price action’s proximity to the lower band emphasizes ongoing bearish pressure, cautioning traders about potential downward continuation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD shows a slight bullish crossover, reflected by the MACD line marginally above the signal line, yet the histogram remains negative. This signals that while there might be a temporary correction upward, the overall bearish momentum remains dominant.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator, currently positioned around 36.93, shows mixed signals with no clear indication of overbought or oversold conditions. Its mid-range position suggests that the market is indecisive at this moment, signaling cautious trading.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI stands at 39.42, firmly in bearish territory below 50, indicating continued bearish sentiment. The RSI highlights the potential for further downward moves before approaching oversold levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and critical support level is at 0.92300, closely aligned with the current PRZ and the Bollinger Bands' lower line.
Resistance: The significant resistance is located around the descending trendline near 0.93300, serving as a key barrier to any bullish correction.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR CHF's H4 chart shows a continuation of bearish momentum despite potential correction efforts. Technical indicators support sustained bearish sentiment, though temporary upward corrections are possible due to the proximity of the support zone and Bollinger Bands. Fundamental developments from today’s EUR and CHF news could significantly influence the pair, especially given expected irregular volatility due to the French bank holiday and the forthcoming PPI release from Switzerland.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.14.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.15.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURGBP currency pair stands at a crucial juncture amid notable economic updates from both the Eurozone and the UK. For the British Pound, traders are closely monitoring comments from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey at the Annual Mansion House Financial and Professional Services Dinner, which could provide hints on future monetary policy direction and interest rate adjustments. Additionally, the British Retail Consortium's retail sales data remains influential, with stronger-than-expected figures likely to support the GBP. On the Euro side, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for both Germany and the wider Eurozone, along with upcoming Industrial Production data, will shape market expectations about the Eurozone’s economic trajectory. Positive surprises from these indicators could bolster the EUR, influencing the EURGBP price action this week.


Price Action:
The EURGBP H4 chart demonstrates a strong bullish trend that has been in place since late May. Price action shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supported by a robust ascending trendline. Over recent sessions, candles have moved significantly above this trendline, highlighting persistent buyer strength. While the bullish momentum is intact, the sharp ascent suggests the pair might soon face a correction, potentially revisiting lower Fibonacci retracement levels before resuming its upward path. Overall, the EURGBP technical outlook suggests the bullish scenario remains favored unless price decisively breaks below key support.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The bands are noticeably widening, reflecting heightened volatility and sustained bullish momentum in EURGBP H4. However, as the price hugs the upper band, it signals the market may soon exhaust its immediate upward drive, and a contraction of the bands could follow, ushering in a short-term correction phase.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is positioned near the 70.00 level, indicating that the EURGBP pair is approaching overbought conditions on the H4 chart. While this supports the strength of the prevailing bullish trend, it also warns of a possible pullback or consolidation as traders start locking in profits.
Williams %R: The Williams %R oscillator is hovering between 0.00 and -20.00, which corroborates an overbought market environment. This aligns with the RSI reading and suggests that although the bulls are firmly in control, the pair is susceptible to a near-term pause or retracement toward support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest robust support lies around the Fibonacci 23.6% level, aligning close to 0.86100. A deeper correction could see the price move toward the 38.2% Fibonacci zone around 0.85600.
Resistance: Immediate resistance sits near 0.87000; a break above could lead to multi-week highs, with the next key level around 0.87200 (previously tested in past price action.)


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the EURGBP H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis points toward a prevailing bullish momentum with potential for further upside, although short-term indicators warn of an overextended market that may soon enter a correction phase. Traders should stay vigilant for any dovish or hawkish surprises from BOE Governor Bailey’s speech or Eurozone ZEW sentiment results, which could trigger volatility and influence the next leg of EURGBP price action. It is prudent to monitor these levels closely, alongside the EURGBP technical indicators, for any signals of trend continuation or reversal.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.15.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.16.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is set for increased volatility today as both eurozone and U.S. economic data and events unfold. In the morning, the euro saw relatively stable releases, with Italy’s trade balance slightly beating expectations and the overall eurozone trade surplus remaining strong. Germany’s 30-year bond auction and the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report added to the euro-side focus. On the U.S. side, a heavy data schedule begins with slightly higher-than-expected Core PPI and PPI figures, followed by key releases like industrial production, capacity utilization, and crude oil inventories. Later in the day, the Beige Book and several speeches from FOMC members, including Barkin, Barr, Daly, Cook, Waller, and others, could offer new insights into the Fed’s rate outlook. With additional data on retail sales, unemployment claims, and housing sentiment also on the calendar, market participants should expect active trading in EUR/USD throughout the day.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD on the H4 timeframe is currently exhibiting a sharp bearish move following a period of sideways consolidation near recent highs. Price action has broken decisively below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift in momentum after failing to sustain its bullish structure. This move comes after a series of lower highs, indicating growing selling pressure. The recent breakdown has pushed the pair below previous support levels, and the current candle shows strong bearish follow-through. The RSI is hovering near the oversold threshold, reflecting the strength of the downward move but also cautioning against potential short-term exhaustion. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram continues to build negative momentum, supporting the bearish outlook. Given this technical setup, the pair may be entering a bearish continuation phase. However, with price now extended below the Bollinger Band, a temporary pullback or consolidation could occur before any further decline. Traders should monitor for either a confirmation of the breakdown with sustained lower closes or a potential mean reversion back toward the middle band.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting strong bearish momentum and increased volatility. The bands had recently begun to expand following a period of contraction, suggesting a potential breakout has already started. Continued movement below the lower band may confirm a downside extension, while any pullback toward the middle band could encounter resistance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering just above the 30 level, nearing oversold territory. This indicates strong bearish pressure, but also warns of potential exhaustion if selling continues without a pause. A break below 30 would confirm oversold conditions, while a bounce could suggest a short-term corrective move.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is in negative territory and continues to decline, showing building bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, reinforcing the current downtrend. Unless a crossover occurs or histogram bars begin to contract, the bearish bias remains intact.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The recent breakdown area near 1.1600 now acts as immediate support. This level has previously served as a pivot zone during earlier price consolidation. A confirmed move below this support could expose the next downside target around 1.1500, which aligns with the mid-June consolidation zone and lower Bollinger Band extension.
Resistance: The 1.1675–1.1700 zone serves as the immediate resistance, marking the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. This area also coincides with the middle Bollinger Band, reinforcing its technical significance. A break above this resistance would suggest easing bearish pressure, with the next upside target around 1.1775, near recent swing highs and prior rejection points.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with both fundamental and technical factors pointing toward heightened volatility in the near term. From a fundamental standpoint, a packed U.S. economic calendar and key Fed communications could significantly sway market sentiment, particularly as inflation and growth data continue to shape rate expectations. On the technical front, the sharp bearish breakdown below key support and the lower Bollinger Band, alongside weakening momentum indicators, suggests the potential for further downside. However, oversold conditions on the RSI and extended price action may prompt a temporary pullback or consolidation. Traders should remain alert to evolving macroeconomic signals and price behavior around the 1.1600 support and 1.1675–1.1700 resistance zones, as these levels may determine the next directional move for the pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.16.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's AUD/USD fundamental analysis points to significant drivers from both the AUD and USD sides. For the US Dollar, several key economic releases are due, including Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, all of which are crucial for gauging US economic health and consumer spending. Speeches by various Federal Reserve officials, including FRBNY President John Williams, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, and FRBSF President Mary Daly, will be closely monitored for clues on future monetary policy and potential interest rate adjustments, impacting USD strength. On the Australian Dollar front, the Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflation Expectations, Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate are primary indicators of Australian economic performance and labor market conditions. Additionally, both currencies will be influenced by the ongoing G20 meetings, where discussions on global economic issues could lead to policy shifts affecting the forex market.


Price Action:
The AUD USD price action on the H4 timeframe reveals a slight long-term bullish trend that is currently undergoing a short-term correction. After repeatedly testing and being rejected by the 100.00 Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a strong resistance, the price has pulled back. However, a rebound appears to be underway from the 61.8 Fibonacci level, the lower Bollinger Band, and the long-term trend line. This is supported by the appearance of 5 green candles out of the last 8, indicating renewed buying interest and a potential move back towards the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a bullish recovery in the short term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The AUD-USD Bollinger Bands show the price currently interacting with the lower band, indicating a potential reversal from oversold conditions. With the price now showing signs of moving back towards the middle band, this suggests a return to the mean and a possible resumption of the underlying bullish momentum within the channel.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The AUD-USD RSI is currently positioned at 44.73. This level indicates that the pair is not in overbought or oversold territory, providing room for potential upward movement without immediate concerns of an imminent reversal due to exhaustion.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The AUDUSD MACD histogram shows decreasing bearish momentum, with the MACD line potentially converging with or crossing above the signal line. This suggests that the selling pressure is easing, and a bullish crossover could be imminent, signaling a shift in favor of buyers.
Parabolic SAR: The AUD-USD Parabolic SAR, with a step of 0.05 and a maximum of 0.2, is currently placed above the recent candles. This indicates that the short-term trend is still considered bearish by this indicator, despite the recent green candles, suggesting that the bullish recovery is nascent and has not yet established strong momentum for a definitive trend reversal.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed around the 0.65100 psychological level, which aligns with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Key resistance is found at the 0.65900 level, corresponding to the 100.00 Fibonacci retracement level, which has previously proven to be a significant barrier for AUDUSD price movements.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD technical analysis for H4 suggests that while the pair is undergoing a short-term correction after hitting a strong resistance, there are signs of a potential bullish rebound from key support levels. The confluence of the 61.8 Fibonacci level, the lower Bollinger Band, and the long-term trend line points to a buying opportunity for forex traders. However, the Parabolic SAR still indicates a short-term bearish bias, warranting caution. AUD USD traders should closely monitor the upcoming high-impact USD and AUD news events, particularly US retail sales data and Federal Reserve speeches, as these can significantly influence AUD/USD volatility and direction. Given the current market dynamics, a retest of the middle Bollinger Band seems plausible, but a clear break above the 100.00 Fibonacci level is needed to confirm a strong resumption of the long-term bullish trend for this currency pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.17.2025

 

[FXGlory]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.18.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NZD/USD fundamental analysis for the H4 timeframe reveals a focus on key economic data releases that could significantly impact the currency pair. For the USD, we are awaiting crucial reports including Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, Building Permits, Housing Starts, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. Additionally, a speech from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be closely watched for any hawkish or dovish signals on monetary policy, which can drive forex market volatility. The G20 meeting, while not a direct market mover today, highlights ongoing global economic discussions that could influence sentiment. For the NZD, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) credit card spending data will provide insights into consumer activity and confidence. These economic indicators and speeches are vital for NZDUSD trading strategies and can lead to price action shifts.


Price Action:
The NZD/USD price action on the H4 chart indicates that the price is moving in a slight bullish trend in the long term but has reached a significant long-term trend line, which has consistently acted as a strong support level. This support trend line has been tested twice before, and each time the NZD USD price failed to break below it, leading to sharp bullish reversals. Currently, the short-term downward trend is showing signs of exhaustion, with the latest candles turning green, suggesting a potential correction or reversal. This pattern suggests that the support level might hold again, potentially leading to another bullish bounce, similar to previous instances where the price rebounded strongly after touching this critical level.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The NZD-USD price is currently moving below the Ichimoku Cloud, which is trending downwards and has thinned out. This indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment in the short-term forex trend, although the thinning cloud might suggest a weakening of this bearish momentum or a potential for future price breakout or reversal if the price manages to cross above it.
Parabolic SAR (0.05 step, 0.2 maximum): The Parabolic SAR dots were initially placed above the candles, confirming the recent downtrend. However, the most recent dot has touched the last candle, and a new dot has now appeared below the candles. This Parabolic SAR signal is a strong indication of a potential NZD-USD trend reversal from bearish to bullish, suggesting upward momentum is building.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI line has touched the 30 level, indicating that the NZD-USD pair was in oversold territory. Following this, the RSI has changed direction and is now moving upward, signaling a potential bullish divergence and a recovery in buying pressure. This RSI analysis supports the idea that the current downward move might be losing steam, paving the way for a bullish correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD (12,26,9) currently shows values of -0.001837 and -0.001864. While the indicator remains in bearish territory, the recent price action suggests decreasing downward momentum.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for NZD/USD is identified at around 0.59050, coinciding with the long-term trend line that has historically acted as a strong floor.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level for NZD/USD is located at around 0.60160, which represents a key psychological and technical barrier for further upside movement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD H4 chart analysis indicates a critical juncture where the long-term bullish trend line is being tested after a short-term bearish correction. While the Ichimoku Cloud and Parabolic SAR initially suggested bearishness, the recent price action, particularly the bounce from the support line, the Parabolic SAR flip, and the upward turn of the RSI from oversold levels, strongly hint at an impending bullish correction or reversal. Traders should pay close attention to the upcoming USD and NZD economic news today, as these releases have the potential to introduce significant volatility and could either reinforce or invalidate the observed technical analysis signals. The combination of technical and fundamental factors suggests a cautious approach, with a readiness to capitalize on a potential bullish rebound from the 0.59050 support level, targeting the 0.60160 resistance.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.18.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.21.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the US Dollar (USD) is influenced by The Conference Board’s Leading Indicators release, measuring economic direction through employment, housing, consumer confidence, and stock market trends. A higher-than-expected result could strengthen the USD. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) anticipates volatility due to the release of Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) from Statistics Canada, significant indicators of inflation trends. Additionally, the Bank of Canada's (BOC) Senior Loan Officer Survey results could heavily impact CAD through insights on business conditions, investments, and inflation expectations.


Price Action:
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 timeframe, after breaking short-term resistance (Resistance 1), the price advanced towards the significant 5-month resistance (Resistance 2), moving within a clear ascending channel. Recently, the price briefly broke above this resistance and then pulled back, retesting the channel's bottom line, confirming support. The ongoing bullish candles indicate a potential continuation upwards, supported by noticeable divergence between price and key oscillators, signaling the beginning of a bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (21): The 21-period Moving Average acts as a dynamic support line. The USDCAD price is currently above this average, suggesting bullish momentum is maintained, offering traders confidence in long positions.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 53.06, RSI indicates neutral to mildly bullish conditions. There's sufficient room before reaching overbought territory, supporting the potential continuation of upward momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD shows a positive but decreasing histogram, with the MACD line narrowly above the signal line. Although bullish momentum persists, traders should be vigilant for a potential weakening in upward pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator: At 57.39, the Stochastic indicator reflects moderate upward momentum, further reinforcing the current bullish stance. The crossover suggests continued bullish activity, supporting further price gains.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 1.3640. Stronger historical support appears at the previous Resistance 1 line.
Resistance: The nearest critical resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 1.3780, with further robust resistance at the 5-month descending trendline (Resistance 2).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD pair exhibits bullish signals on the H4 chart, supported by Moving Average positioning, RSI neutrality, MACD positive crossover, and a rising Stochastic Oscillator. However, traders should remain cautious due to potential volatility from key fundamental economic releases from both the USD and CAD today. It's advisable to manage risks carefully and consider both technical and fundamental factors before entering trades.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.21.2025