Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

USD/JPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's USD-JPY currency pair will be influenced by significant economic events impacting both USD and JPY. The upcoming U.S. JOLTS Job Openings and Manufacturing Orders data can introduce volatility due to their implications for employment trends and manufacturing activity, respectively. Additionally, multiple speeches by Federal Reserve officials today may further influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy. Concurrently, JPY traders will closely monitor BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks for potential shifts in Japan's monetary policy, impacting the Yen significantly.


Price Action:
Analyzing the USDJPY H4 chart reveals that the pair has approached its ascending support line, indicating a crucial test of price stability. If the price obtains support at the current level, it could likely initiate another upward move, aiming to retest the daily resistance line previously breached. The weakened downtrend observed recently could signal the potential initiation of a bullish reversal upon breaking this key resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is positioned below the Ichimoku cloud, which indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. However, the narrowing span of the cloud suggests possible trend exhaustion, with potential for bullish momentum if price moves upwards through the cloud.
MACD: MACD is below the signal line and in negative territory, highlighting current bearish momentum. Nevertheless, decreasing histogram bars suggest weakening bearish momentum, potentially signaling a bullish divergence soon.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator remains above the price, underscoring a bearish bias. However, its proximity to price action indicates a potential switch soon if bullish pressure emerges.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator at -92.61 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting the price could soon experience a corrective rally or upward momentum.
Volume: Recent volume bars demonstrate relatively stable volume levels without significant spikes. A notable volume increase coinciding with bullish price action would strongly support a trend reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is around the 142.650 level, aligning with the ascending trendline visible on the H4 chart.
Resistance: The key resistance is positioned near the 144.250 level, aligning with the daily resistance line and previous high points.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY analysis on the H4 timeframe shows the pair at a crucial support level with indications of weakening bearish momentum. Technical indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Williams %R point toward a potential reversal scenario. Traders should remain vigilant to upcoming economic data releases and central bank speeches today, as these events could introduce volatility and alter market sentiment significantly. Always ensure risk management protocols are in place.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.03.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.04.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the AUDUSD pair is set for a dynamic trading session amid mixed economic data and key events. Early in the Asian session, Australia's GDP q/q figure is released, showing a modest 0.4% growth against an expected 0.6%, potentially weighing on the AUD. Meanwhile, the USD faces several critical reports and speeches that could drive volatility, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which came in stronger than forecast at 111K versus 62K, possibly boosting the greenback. FOMC members Bostic and Cook are also scheduled to speak, with market participants watching closely for any monetary policy signals. Later in the day, the USD Final Services PMI held steady at 52.3, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.0, above expectations, and Crude Oil Inventories showed a slight drawdown. The release of the Fed’s Beige Book in the evening will provide further insights into economic conditions, keeping USD traders alert. Overall, AUDUSD will likely react to a blend of Australian growth data and US employment and service sector reports.


Price Action:
AUD/USD price action analysis on the H4 timeframe reveals a prolonged period of sideways consolidation between the resistance at approximately 0.65142 and support near 0.64035. The pair has tested these levels multiple times, showing indecision in the market. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates a mixed sentiment with price hovering around the Kijun-Sen (blue line) and Tenkan-Sen (red line), while the cloud itself is relatively flat, confirming the sideways trend. The MACD histogram shows minimal momentum with a close-to-zero reading, reflecting the lack of strong directional bias. A decisive break above the 0.65142 resistance could trigger a bullish move targeting the next resistance at 0.65366, whereas failure to break higher might see the pair retesting support levels around 0.64035 and possibly 0.63558.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud shows a flat and narrow formation, indicating consolidation and indecision in the AUD/USD market. The price is hovering around the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line), suggesting no clear trend direction. The cloud ahead is thin and slightly bullish, hinting at potential for a breakout but with cautious momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is close to the zero line with small bars, reflecting very weak momentum and a lack of strong directional bias. The MACD line and signal line are nearly converged, indicating the market is in a neutral state, and traders should watch for a clear crossover to signal a potential trend shift.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support at 0.64035, with further downside support levels at 0.63558 and a crucial support zone near 0.63300.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at 0.65142, followed by a higher resistance level at 0.65366.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair is poised for a cautious trading session influenced by mixed Australian GDP data and stronger-than-expected US employment figures, alongside key speeches and reports that could sway market sentiment. Technically, the pair remains in a consolidation phase with limited momentum, as reflected by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators, signaling indecision and a lack of clear direction. Traders should watch closely for a breakout above the 0.65142 resistance to confirm a bullish shift, or a breakdown below 0.64035 support that could open the way for further declines. Overall, the interplay of fundamental catalysts and technical consolidation suggests that volatility may increase, but clear directional cues are yet to emerge.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.04.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/GBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.05.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR-GBP currency pair is impacted by a series of economic releases and central bank statements. For the Euro (EUR), there are several key reports due today, including industrial orders and retail sales data, which can provide insight into economic activity and consumer spending within the Eurozone. Positive data could strengthen the EUR against the GBP. On the other hand, the GBP may face volatility with key figures such as BOE members scheduled to speak, including Megan Greene and Sarah Breeden, both of whom may drop hints regarding future monetary policies. These events are crucial as they provide insights into potential rate changes or economic outlooks, impacting the value of the British Pound.


Price Action:
The EURGBP pair has recently shown signs of potential bullish reversal after breaking the downward trend line. The price action has formed a higher low, reinforcing the possibility of an uptrend beginning. The pair is currently testing a significant resistance zone, marked by daily resistance levels. The reaction to this level will be pivotal, and if the price manages to break through, further upside potential exists towards the resistance line. The divergence between recent lows also adds to the credibility of this analysis, suggesting that the momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are relatively tight, signaling that the market may be entering a consolidation phase before a potential breakout. The price action has recently moved within the upper half of the bands, indicating bullish momentum. A breakout from the upper Bollinger Band could propel the EURGBP to higher levels, especially if the market manages to clear the resistance zone.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR has flipped bullish, with dots now appearing below the price action. This is a clear signal of potential upward momentum. The alignment of the SAR with the higher lows strengthens the case for further upward movement, and traders will be looking for the dots to continue staying below the price, confirming the bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 53.31, indicating neutral conditions. It is not in the overbought or oversold zones, suggesting that there is still room for price movement in either direction. A rise in RSI above 60 could further confirm bullish continuation, while a dip below 30 might indicate a deeper retracement or a reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is slightly above the signal line, indicating positive momentum. However, the histogram is very close to zero, signaling that bullish momentum might be weakening. A widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line would confirm stronger upward momentum. Traders should watch for a potential bullish crossover in the near term for confirmation of continued strength.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at 0.83400, which aligns with recent price action and the lower boundary of the trend. A break below this level would suggest further downside potential.
Resistance: The key resistance level is found around 0.84350, which has been a persistent barrier. This level coincides with both a recent high and the daily resistance, making it a crucial area to watch for any breakout or rejection.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP pair is poised for a potential uptrend, with key indicators such as the Parabolic SAR, Bollinger Bands, and price action suggesting bullish momentum. A successful breakout above the resistance at 0.84350 could lead to a test of higher levels. However, traders should be mindful of the neutral RSI and the MACD histogram's lack of significant momentum, which implies caution. Upcoming economic events for both the Eurozone and the UK, including retail sales and central bank speeches, could introduce volatility, influencing short-term price movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.05.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD-CAD pair is sensitive today due to several significant news releases. USD traders are attentive to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Employment Cost Index, and Consumer Credit data, critical indicators affecting inflation and employment health. Positive labor market figures and increased consumer credit could strengthen the USD, potentially pushing USDCAD upwards. CAD traders are waiting for employment figures from Canada, releasing on July 11, which might keep today's movements influenced by USD dynamics primarily.


Price Action:
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a clear downtrend, recently testing its support level and moving upwards to retest its descending trendline resistance. The price could face significant resistance here; breaking above this trendline would indicate potential initiation of a new upward trend. Traders must remain cautious and await confirmation of a break above the resistance line to establish any bullish position.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The indicator dots are currently above the price, suggesting bearish momentum. Traders should wait for the dots to shift below price levels, signaling a potential reversal towards a bullish bias.
RSI: Currently at 38.51, the RSI indicates a mildly bearish sentiment. However, it's not yet oversold, allowing for potential downward continuation or eventual upward momentum if a reversal is signaled by price action.
MACD: The MACD histogram is slightly negative, indicating current bearish momentum. Traders should monitor closely for a crossover of the MACD line above the signal line to identify a possible bullish reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: Currently at 75.03, showing a potentially overbought condition. This suggests caution, as the price could face downward pressure in the short term unless bullish momentum intensifies significantly to confirm an upward breakout.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is found at 1.3627, a crucial level that recently stopped the price's downward momentum.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at the descending trendline, currently around 1.3700, which is critical for potential trend reversal confirmation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD H4 remains bearish but faces a critical test at its descending trendline resistance. Technical indicators suggest caution, with the potential for a trend reversal pending confirmation. Fundamental news releases today significantly influence USD strength, warranting close monitoring. Traders should wait for clear breakout confirmations before entering positions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.06.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GOLD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.09.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to experience volatility today driven by upcoming key economic data from the US Census Bureau regarding Wholesale Inventories. Traders should closely monitor the release, as a lower-than-forecasted result usually strengthens the USD, negatively impacting Gold prices. Conversely, weaker inventory data might spur demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, offering support to bullish scenarios.


Price Action:
Analyzing the GOLD H4 chart, the price recently experienced a correction that broke the immediate ascending trendline with the last two bearish candles. However, the broader bullish sentiment remains strong, potentially signaling a Breakout Failure (BOF). The visible divergence between recent price lows and oscillators strengthens this view, suggesting the possibility of a bullish reversal soon. Should the price continue declining, further downside targets include the subsequent ascending trendline and immediate horizontal support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently positioned above the price candles, suggesting a bearish sentiment short-term. A shift below candles would confirm renewed bullish momentum.
RSI: RSI stands at 36.49, approaching oversold territory. This indicates potential exhaustion of bearish momentum, implying a near-term reversal might occur.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic indicator is approaching oversold levels, further highlighting potential bullish reversal opportunities soon, supported by oscillator-price divergence.
Volume: Recent bearish candles showed moderate volume, indicating sellers are present but not yet dominating strongly, adding caution to bearish continuation expectations.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate key support at approximately 3296.84, followed by a more critical support level around 3269.84, aligning with previous consolidation zones.
Resistance: Significant resistance identified near 3361.84, a recent peak, and beyond that at approximately 3407.84, representing previous highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The H4 technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for GOLD indicates current bearish pressure but highlights robust underlying bullish strength. Traders should cautiously monitor price actions around immediate support zones for potential reversals. Today's wholesale inventories data could be pivotal in defining short-term Gold price direction, emphasizing the importance of attentive risk management strategies.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.09.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is highly influenced by the economic conditions in both the Eurozone and the United States. The Euro is currently affected by upcoming economic data releases, with the Industrial Output report from Istat scheduled for release on July 10, 2025. A positive result could indicate a stronger euro, boosting market sentiment for EUR. On the US side, the NFIB Small Business Index report is due on July 8, 2025, which could give further insight into the health of the US economy. Traders will closely watch these data points for any signs of strengthening or weakening in the respective currencies.


Price Action:
The EUR-USD is currently experiencing a strong upward movement, following a pullback to the broken support level at 1.11330. This breakout has pushed the price towards its resistance zone near 1.1420, showing that the bullish momentum is intact. The price action is forming an ascending triangle pattern, indicating that a potential breakout above this resistance level could drive the price higher, potentially targeting the last high at around 1.15640. Traders should watch for the breakout confirmation to seize the next move.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR is currently positioned below the price, confirming the bullish trend. The consistent dots beneath the price suggest that the upward momentum could continue, with the SAR providing support at lower levels if the price retraces.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is showing bullish momentum with the MACD line above the signal line, and the histogram remains positive. However, the momentum is starting to show signs of slowing down, as indicated by the decreasing size of the histogram. Traders should remain cautious for a possible slowdown in the bullish trend.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator is currently positioned in the neutral zone, showing a value of around -40.19. This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, which aligns with the ongoing bullish price action without signaling any immediate reversal or exhaustion.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.11330, which aligns with the broken level that previously acted as a strong support. If the price retraces, this level could offer substantial support and lead to further upward movement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1420, where the price has recently encountered a strong barrier. A break above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting higher levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD pair is in a strong uptrend, supported by a solid break above the 1.11330 level. The Parabolic SAR and MACD indicators back the bullish move, but traders should watch for any signs of weakening momentum in the MACD histogram. The price action suggests that the pair is in the process of testing resistance at 1.1420, and a breakout above this level could lead to a test of 1.15640. Economic data from both the Eurozone and the US in the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the direction of the EURUSD. Traders should stay vigilant for any shifts in sentiment and be prepared for potential volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.10.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.11.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the GBPUSD pair is poised for a potentially volatile session as both UK and US economic releases influence market sentiment. Early UK data reveals a mixed picture: GDP m/m unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% versus the forecasted 0.2%, while Industrial and Manufacturing Production both declined by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, indicating softness in the UK's economic activity. Construction Output came in slightly below expectations at 0.3%, and the Goods Trade Balance widened to -£20.8B, missing the -£19.9B estimate. However, the Index of Services held steady at 0.7%, offering some stability. On the US side, inflation readings were generally in line or slightly stronger, with Core CPI m/m rising 0.3% (vs. 0.2%) and CPI y/y at 2.5% (vs. 2.3%), reinforcing the case for a cautious Fed. Additionally, Core PPI and PPI m/m both rebounded into positive territory, while Unemployment Claims fell to 242K, better than expected. With inflation pressures persisting in the US and economic signals from the UK turning softer, GBPUSD may face downside pressure, though traders will remain alert to upcoming Fed commentary and broader risk sentiment.


Price Action:
GBP/USD price action analysis on the H4 timeframe signals a potential shift toward bearish momentum following a break below key technical levels. The pair has decisively fallen beneath both its recent ascending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a weakening bullish structure. The cloud itself has turned bearish, with future cloud projection showing a downward tilt. Price is also trading below both the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line), reinforcing the bearish bias. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has dipped into negative territory with increasing downside bars, suggesting growing bearish momentum and a possible continuation of the downward wave. If the pair sustains below the 1.3470 area, further declines could target support zones near 1.3400 and possibly extend toward 1.3340 in the near term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud on the GBP/USD H4 chart shows a bearish configuration. The price has broken decisively below the cloud, signaling a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment. Both the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line) are above the current price, reinforcing downward pressure. The cloud ahead is bearish and slightly expanding, indicating growing downside momentum and a potential continuation of the bearish trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram has turned negative with increasing red bars, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum. The MACD line is below the signal line and diverging further, confirming the bearish crossover and trend continuation potential. This setup supports a downside bias for GBP/USD in the near term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for GBP/USD is seen near the 1.3420 level, which has previously acted as a consolidation base. A break below this could open the door to further downside targets around 1.3360, with a crucial support zone lying near 1.3320.
Resistance: On the upside, initial resistance is located around 1.3515, marked by the flat Kijun-Sen and previous price congestion. If bulls reclaim this level, the next key resistance is near 1.3580, aligning with the recent swing high before the breakdown.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In summary, GBP/USD appears vulnerable to further downside in the near term, driven by a combination of weaker-than-expected UK economic data and firmer US inflation metrics that support a cautious but hawkish Fed outlook. From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken below critical support levels, with bearish signals confirmed by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators. As price action remains under pressure and below key moving averages, momentum favors sellers, especially if the 1.3420 level fails to hold. Traders should closely monitor upcoming Fed commentary and broader market sentiment, as any shift in risk appetite or central bank tone could influence short-term direction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.11.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s fundamental outlook for the USD/CAD pair is influenced by upcoming economic data from both the United States and Canada. For the USD, traders are closely watching the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations data. These indicators are crucial as they reflect consumer confidence and future inflation expectations, both of which heavily influence Federal Reserve policy direction. If actual figures come out higher than forecast, the USD may see a bullish reaction due to increased prospects of tightening monetary policy.
On the Canadian side, Statistics Canada will release data regarding Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Shipments, and Wholesale Trade. These figures serve as early signals of economic strength and inflationary pressure in Canada. If the results are strong, the CAD may benefit from increased investor confidence in the country's economic resilience, putting further downward pressure on the USD-CAD pair.


Price Action:
Analyzing the price action of USD CAD in the H4 chart, the pair continues its consistent bearish trend. The last few candlesticks have been predominantly red, with the latest three confirming strong bearish momentum. The USDCAD price has broken below the short-term rising support trendline and has now reached the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level, which may act as a temporary support zone. Sellers remain in control, with no significant bullish reversal patterns currently in sight. This supports the continuation of the current downtrend, unless a strong reversal signal emerges.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA - Blue 9 & Orange 17): The 9-period MA (blue) has crossed below the 17-period MA (orange), reinforcing a bearish crossover signal on the H4 chart. This alignment confirms the bearish trend continuation, and until a bullish crossover appears, short trades are technically favored in the current environment.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have formed above the candlesticks, indicating downward pressure in the market. This classic trend-following signal further supports bearish momentum and validates ongoing selling interest in USD/CAD.
Volume: Trading volume has increased on the latest bearish candles, with red bars dominating. This surge in volume accompanying price decline signals strong conviction from sellers and further weakens the likelihood of an immediate rebound.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is printing negative values, though showing minor flattening. This indicates that bearish momentum remains intact, albeit with a hint of potential slowing. However, no bullish divergence is present, so trend continuation is still likely in the short term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support lies near the recent 1.3530–1.3550 zone, marked by the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level, which could serve as a short-term bounce area if sellers exhaust themselves.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level appears around the 1.3670–1.3690 zone, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, where price previously struggled to break above.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart analysis reflects a strong bearish setup driven by aligned technical indicators such as the moving averages, parabolic SAR, MACD, and confirming price action. The pair is trading at a significant Fibonacci support level, but without a reversal pattern or divergence, bearish continuation remains likely. From a fundamental perspective, today's US inflation expectations and Canadian manufacturing-related data may trigger volatility and decide whether this support will hold or break. Traders should monitor these economic releases closely and remain cautious of unexpected spikes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.13.2025

 

[FXGlory]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.16.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD (Bitcoin vs US Dollar) pair may experience increased volatility today due to USD-related macroeconomic data. Specifically, attention is focused on the New York Manufacturing Index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As a forward-looking indicator of economic health, stronger-than-forecast results would support the USD, potentially putting short-term downward pressure on BTC/USD. However, broader crypto sentiment remains influenced by institutional accumulation and anticipation of regulatory developments. With Bitcoin's long-term bullish fundamentals intact—bolstered by growing adoption and inflation hedging—the market reaction to USD strength may be limited or short-lived unless the data shows a strong divergence from expectations.


Price Action:
The BTCUSD H4 chart exhibits ongoing consolidation just above the $100,000 psychological level, with price currently at $105,336. After reaching highs near $111,389, the market has retraced toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level, where it found support on the long-term upward trendline (green). Price action is compressing within this critical confluence zone, suggesting indecision. A series of lower highs indicate minor bearish momentum, but the long-term structure remains bullish unless the trendline support is broken with volume. The candlesticks show diminishing bearish bodies near support, hinting at a possible reversal or breakout above the local resistance area.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (EMA 9 & EMA 17): The Bitcoin price is currently below both the short-term (blue, EMA 9) and long-term (orange, EMA 17) exponential moving averages. The short-term EMA has crossed below the long-term EMA, signaling bearish short-term momentum. However, this crossover occurs close to a major support level, indicating a possible upcoming bounce or reversal if bulls defend the trendline.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, confirming the current bearish sentiment. However, the dots are very close to the candlesticks, suggesting weakening selling pressure and potential for a bullish shift if price closes above the EMAs in the next few sessions.
Volume: Volume has increased slightly near the recent support touch, suggesting accumulation interest at the $100K–$105K zone. No significant spikes indicate panic selling; instead, volume patterns align with a potential base-building process at key support.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram remains below zero, and the MACD line is below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the histogram bars are shortening, implying a reduction in bearish momentum. A bullish crossover may soon occur if the trendline holds and upward momentum builds.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Strong support is established around $100,000, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the long-term upward trendline, creating a critical demand zone for BTC USD in this H4 analysis.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies near $108,387, the recent swing high, with the next major barrier at $111,389, corresponding to the peak and 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD on the H4 chart remains within a long-term bullish trend, currently testing a key support zone around $100,000–$105,000. While short-term indicators like the EMA crossover, MACD, and Parabolic SAR suggest bearish pressure, the proximity to structural support and declining bearish momentum may lead to a bullish reversal. A confirmed close above the EMAs and increased volume could signal a fresh move toward the $108K–$111K resistance zone. Traders should closely monitor today’s USD news release, especially the New York Manufacturing Index, as stronger-than-expected data could bolster the USD and apply pressure to BTC. This BTC-USD H4 chart analysis recommends a cautious approach, waiting for clear price action confirmation before entering new positions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.16.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.26.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair is heavily influenced by economic data from both the UK and the US. For the USD, there are important upcoming economic releases that include GDP data, durable goods orders, and jobless claims, all of which can provide insights into the overall health of the US economy. The GDP release, in particular, is highly significant and is expected to provide a strong impact on market sentiment. On the other hand, GBP’s price movement could be influenced by the Bank of England’s statements on monetary policy, with Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden discussing the competitiveness of UK financial services. Traders are focused on these factors, as hawkish stances from the Bank of England or any stronger-than-expected US data could move the market substantially in the coming hours.


Price Action:
The GBP-USD pair shows a clear uptrend as evidenced by the rising trendline, which has been respected multiple times since the price broke above the 1.34149 level. The retest of this level has seen support each time, with the most recent retest showing a significant rebound higher than previous tests. The price has now advanced towards the upper boundary of this trend channel, suggesting further upside potential. However, if the price reverses, the 1.34149 level would be a critical support to watch. If the trendline continues to hold, GBPUSD could test new highs.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the price, indicating that the current trend is bullish. This suggests continued upward momentum, with the indicator serving as a trailing stop.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 69.59, nearing the overbought level of 70. This suggests that the price has been in an extended upward move, but the market still has room before hitting overbought conditions. This supports the possibility of further bullish movement, but caution is advised as the RSI is approaching overbought territory.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram shows positive momentum. This indicates that the bullish trend remains intact, but the histogram is starting to show signs of weakening momentum. Traders should watch for potential divergence that could indicate a slowdown in upward pressure.
Standard Deviation: The Standard Deviation indicator shows increasing volatility, with the current value at 0.008901. This suggests that the market is becoming more volatile, and price movements could be more pronounced in the near term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The most immediate support lies at 1.34149, where the price has repeatedly bounced off in the recent past. This level will be key if the price pulls back.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is seen near the trendline at approximately 1.35810. If the price breaks through this resistance, we could see further bullish movement towards new highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP-USD pair remains in a strong bullish trend, as indicated by the Parabolic SAR and the positive momentum shown by the MACD. However, the RSI suggests that the pair is nearing overbought levels, and the Standard Deviation indicates increased volatility, which could lead to swift price moves. Traders should watch the support level at 1.34149, which could offer a solid entry point in case of a pullback. Any strong fundamental developments, particularly from the US or the Bank of England, could significantly influence the pair’s direction in the coming hours.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.26.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.27.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's USDCAD fundamental analysis will be driven by several key economic releases from both the US and Canada. For the USD, traders are awaiting critical Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, Disposable Personal Income figures, and insights into consumer spending trends. Speeches by Federal Reserve members Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack could significantly affect USD volatility, especially if comments indicate a more hawkish stance toward inflation and labor market conditions. Additionally, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence and inflation expectation releases will be closely watched. On the CAD side, attention will center around the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release from Statistics Canada, providing clarity on economic growth and influencing CAD valuation.


Price Action:
USD/CAD price action on the H4 chart indicates a bearish sentiment in the short term. After experiencing significant downward momentum, decreasing roughly 1050 points over three substantial bearish candles, the last two candles have reversed partially to green, showing potential for a short-term correction or consolidation. The overall bearish trend remains intact as the price trades below the descending trendline, highlighting continued downward pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The short-term MA (blue line, period 9) has crossed below the longer-term MA (orange line, period 17), signaling bearish sentiment. Both moving averages are sloping downward closely together, suggesting a sustained bearish momentum in the near term. Traders should monitor for potential crossovers or divergences for indications of changing market conditions.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator confirms bearish pressure, with the last four dots positioned above the price candles. This placement reinforces the bearish bias. However, the recent shift to green candles suggests cautiousness, and traders should closely observe if dots continue appearing above or start shifting below the candles, potentially indicating a reversal or consolidation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows bearish momentum as the MACD line remains below the signal line and the histogram reflects downward momentum. Nevertheless, traders should be cautious, as the histogram bars' length is decreasing, hinting at potential weakening bearish momentum and a possible short-term reversal.
Williams %R: The %R oscillator currently reads -76.74, showing oversold market conditions. While this typically signals a potential price correction upwards, traders should look for confirmation through additional bullish price action or other technical indicators before entering long positions, given the current bearish overall bias.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is at the 1.3634 level, marking recent lows and aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is around 1.3727, coinciding with recent highs and the descending trendline resistance.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart analysis indicates prevailing bearish momentum supported by technical indicators such as Moving Averages, Parabolic SAR, MACD, and Williams %R. Traders should remain cautious due to potential volatility from significant economic data and central bank speakers, particularly the upcoming US PCE data and Canada's GDP release. Monitoring support at 1.3634 and resistance at 1.3727 will be critical in gauging further directional bias.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.27.2025