Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

GOLD ATH Price Action Targets $4400 Technical Analysis

All-Time High Price ActionThe XAU/USD pair, also known as Spot Gold or the "yellow metal" in forex trading, represents the price of one troy ounce of gold (XAU) quoted in US Dollars (USD), serving as the primary safe-haven asset against currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty. Today's fundamental analysis for the GOLD/USD pair will be heavily influenced by a busy schedule of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members' speeches, including Governor Stephen Miran, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, with markets seeking any shift in the monetary policy outlook; any surprisingly hawkish comments—indicating a potential delay in interest rate cuts or a tightening of financial conditions—would likely boost the US Dollar strength, thereby exerting bearish pressure on the non-yielding gold price, while any dovish tones would reinforce the current bullish trend as a result of lower real rates. This focus on Federal Reserve sentiment highlights the extreme sensitivity of the GOLD/USD pair to changes in USD strength and rate hike expectations, which is critical for gold price prediction and daily chart technical analysis.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The XAU/USD H4 chart technical analysis clearly confirms an exceptional and extended bullish trend, with the Spot Gold price maintaining its All-Time High (ATH) run well above the $4300 level. Price action is currently focused on the significant psychological and technical resistance at $4400, which coincides closely with the 1.0 Fibonacci Extension level (near $4303.70), suggesting this zone is a potential profit-taking or resistance test area if the momentum persists. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator provides powerful trend confirmation, showing candles trading decisively above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), the Conversion Line (Tenkan-sen), and the Base Line (Kijun-sen), with the future cloud remaining bright green—all signs of a strong, entrenched uptrend. The Williams %R oscillator, reading -4.89, indicates the price is deep in overbought territory (near the 0 line), signaling that the market is stretched and a short-term price action pullback or consolidation is highly probable, although strong parabolic trends can see this momentum indicator remain extreme for some time. Key support levels to watch for a corrective move include the 0.618 Fib at $4228.10 and the psychological $4200 support. The overall XAU/USD forecast remains strongly bullish, but the overextended nature of the rally carries high volatility and increased risk of a sharp correction.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

Dow Jones trading strategy based on price action

The US30, commonly known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or simply the Dow, represents the performance of 30 major U.S. blue-chip companies and is a leading barometer of the American economy. In the forex and index markets, the Dow is widely tracked for its correlation with USD strength and overall investor sentiment. Today’s focus lies on a series of crucial U.S. economic reports — including the S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index, FHFA House Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. These data points are pivotal as they provide insight into U.S. housing market trends, manufacturing strength, and consumer optimism. Rising home prices and stronger confidence could reinforce expectations of sustained economic resilience, supporting the Dollar and boosting equity market optimism. Conversely, weaker data could pressure risk appetite, prompting short-term corrections in the Dow’s bullish structure. Overall, today’s U.S. data releases are likely to influence short-term market direction and volatility in the US30 daily and H4 technical and fundamental analysis.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The US30 H4 chart shows that the price is moving in a bullish trend within a clearly defined ascending channel, supported by consistent higher highs and higher lows. The index is trading above the Ichimoku green upward-moving cloud, confirming strong upward momentum and a positive market bias. The price currently remains above both the baseline (Kijun-sen) and conversion line (Tenkan-sen), which are aligned and signaling ongoing buying pressure. The lagging span has recently turned horizontal, suggesting early signs of momentum consolidation while maintaining a bullish structure. Additionally, the %R14 indicator at -4.76 reflects an overbought condition, indicating that while the trend remains upward, a short-term pullback or consolidation may occur before the next continuation move. Overall, price action supports a bullish outlook for the US30 H4 chart, with potential resistance near the upper boundary of the channel and dynamic support along the midline of the trend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USD CAD H4 Chart Price Action and Indicators Insights

The USD/CAD forex pair, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the United States dollar and the Canadian dollar. The Loonie is closely watched by traders, particularly due to Canada's significant energy sector, making crude oil inventories highly impactful on the pair. Today, traders are awaiting important U.S. economic releases, including Pending Home Sales, crude oil inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and insights from the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement and press conference. Additionally, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook remains influential. The overall market sentiment today leans towards a cautious stance, with volatility anticipated around these announcements, potentially impacting the short-term valuation of USD/CAD significantly.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical perspective on the H4 chart, USD/CAD candles have been trending within a bullish channel, experiencing multiple breakout attempts that have consistently failed at the channel boundaries. Currently, price action is positioned at the channel's trend line, accompanied by bearish corrective movements that show signs of exhaustion, indicating a limited expectation of further bearish continuation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.02, approaching oversold territory, reinforcing potential bullish momentum. The stochastic oscillator (%K 17.63, %D 12.16) also supports this by signaling an oversold condition, suggesting potential upward movement. Meanwhile, the moving average line remains above the candles, signaling recent bearish pressure but also hinting at a potential shift towards bullish sentiment. If price action remains contained within the channel, traders may target the middle channel band as the next key resistance.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Bullish Channel vs. Bearish Triangle on Japan 225 Chart

The Nikkei 225 Index, commonly known as the Japan 225 or simply the "Nikkei," is Japan's premier stock market index, comprising 225 of the largest publicly traded companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Often viewed as a barometer of Japan's economic health, it is closely watched by global investors. Fundamentally, today's scheduled releases from Japan include Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food, the unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales, and housing starts. These indicators significantly impact the JPY, influencing monetary policy decisions by Japan's central bank. Stronger-than-expected CPI or industrial production and lower unemployment typically strengthen the Yen, reflecting improved economic health and potentially tightening monetary conditions, which could weigh on the Nikkei 225 as export-driven companies adjust to a stronger currency.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical standpoint, analyzing the Nikkei 225 H4 chart reveals the price currently trending bullishly within an ascending channel, positioned close to its upper boundary, yet forming a bearish short-term triangle. Price action remains bullishly supported, sitting above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating underlying positive momentum despite the recent sideways movement. The conversion line closely aligns horizontally with recent candlesticks near the flat-bottom triangle's lower edge, suggesting temporary consolidation. Furthermore, the price trades near the Fibonacci extension level slightly above the 0.786 retracement. Connors RSI (CRSI) is moderate at 31.09, signaling potential oversold conditions in the short term, while the MACD histogram shows narrowing momentum, hinting at possible near-term bearish pressure.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

AUDUSD Pair Faces Bearish Pressure on H4 Chart

AUD/USD, commonly referred to as the "Aussie," represents the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. It is one of the most actively traded currency pairs globally, reflecting the economic dynamics between Australia and the United States. Fundamental analysis indicates potential volatility today due to crucial news events including the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision and rate statement, both influential in guiding traders' expectations regarding future monetary policy. Positive or hawkish signals from the RBA, hinting at higher interest rates or stronger economic outlooks, would likely strengthen the Australian dollar. Conversely, commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman at the Santander Banking Conference, combined with U.S. consumer confidence data from RealClearMarkets, may influence USD strength depending on perceived economic optimism or signals toward future Fed policy adjustments.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the AUD/USD H4 chart today indicates short-term bearish momentum, evident from the latest five consecutive bearish candles. The AUDUSD price action is currently within a narrowing Ichimoku green cloud, suggesting reduced volatility and potential trend uncertainty. Both Leading Spans A and B have flattened, hinting at indecision in market direction. The last candle closed below both the baseline (Kijun-sen) and conversion line (Tenkan-sen), aligning closely with the lagging span (Chikou Span). Additionally, the recent volume has been predominantly bearish, supported by four consecutive red volume bars. MACD indicators (12,26) are currently negative at -0.00029 and -0.00048 respectively, with a histogram reading at 0.00019, further suggesting bearish sentiment and possible continuation of the downward price action in the short term.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

US 500 Index Technical and Fundamental Update

The US 500 Index, widely known as the S&P 500 or “the barometer of the US economy,” tracks 500 leading US companies and reflects the overall market and economic performance. From a fundamental perspective, today’s focus is on the ADP Employment Report, ISM Services PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and remarks from President Trump at the America Business Forum. Strong employment and PMI data could boost the USD and pressure equities as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy, while weaker data may support risk assets by increasing expectations for easing. The EIA report could also sway sentiment through its impact on inflation outlooks, and Trump’s comments may add volatility depending on his economic tone.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the US 500 H4 chart, the market remains broadly bullish, though several bearish corrections have formed lower lows. The candles have corrected up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and are struggling to break lower levels. The 0.236 Fibonacci at 6849.93 could be the next resistance, while the 6770–6760 area provides short-term support. Williams %R at -99.67 signals oversold conditions, hinting at a possible rebound. The MACD (-11.83, -22.93, -11.11) confirms bearish momentum, though it’s beginning to flatten. Ichimoku readings (6834.18, 6865.09, 6777.61, 6761.56) show price below the cloud, reinforcing a bearish tone. A drop below 6760 could open the way toward 6700 (0.618 Fibonacci), while a close above 6849 might trigger a short-term bullish reversal.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USDCAD Correction Phase Signals Trading Opportunity

USD/CAD, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, reflecting trade relations between the United States and Canada. The pair's movements are significantly influenced by crude oil prices, given Canada's role as a major oil exporter. Today, the USD/CAD is anticipated to experience volatility due to multiple speeches by key policymakers including BOC Governor Tiff Macklem and Federal Reserve members. Hawkish sentiments from the Bank of Canada speakers, suggesting potential monetary tightening, could strengthen the Canadian dollar, whereas bullish remarks from Fed officials emphasizing rate stability or hikes would support the USD. Traders should closely monitor these events to anticipate short-term direction and price action volatility.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From the provided H4 technical chart, USD/CAD is observed to have been moving upwards within a clear bullish channel, repeatedly testing a resistance zone above the upper band of this channel but facing breakout failures. Currently, the price action has reached the upper resistance level and appears to be initiating a corrective pullback towards the channel, signifying a short-term correction phase. The MACD indicator signals weakening bullish momentum, suggesting a potential consolidation or mild correction. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought scenario and is poised for a bearish crossover, aligning with the anticipated brief corrective period before potentially resuming the bullish trend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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