Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

AUD/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.02.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD-USD currency pair faces increased volatility due to significant economic news releases for both the US and Australian economies. The US Dollar will be influenced by crucial labor market data, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the unemployment rate, and labor cost reports. Stronger-than-expected results typically strengthen the USD, impacting AUDUSD negatively. Conversely, Australian Dollar movements hinge on the upcoming retail sales figures and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Positive Australian retail sales data could bolster AUD strength. Additionally, AUD is exposed to political uncertainty due to imminent parliamentary elections, potentially triggering increased volatility.


Price Action:
AUD USD analysis in the H4 timeframe reveals that price action has recently broken the downtrend line, successfully retesting it, and subsequently transitioned into an ascending trend before entering a sideways consolidation channel. Currently, the price is approaching the bottom boundary of this horizontal channel. Historically, this lower boundary has provided robust support, indicating a crucial pivot point. If the lower channel boundary holds, a bullish continuation towards the upper boundary is highly probable.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots currently appear above the price bars, indicating a bearish pressure. This suggests caution, as bears currently exert control, albeit within the context of the broader sideways market.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicative of decreasing volatility and potential preparation for a significant breakout. The price is currently near the lower Bollinger Band, typically signaling potential upward movement upon successful support confirmation.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator at 47.03 remains neutral and suggests balanced buying and selling pressures. The neutral stance indicates there is ample room for significant movements in either direction depending on forthcoming market triggers.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is marginally below the signal line, with a modest bearish histogram. This slight bearish sentiment indicates waning bullish momentum within the current consolidation phase, reinforcing the need for caution until clearer signals emerge.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The key immediate support level is located at 0.6340, coinciding with the lower boundary of the horizontal channel and recent support area.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 0.6440, aligned with the upper boundary of the horizontal consolidation channel and recent highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD-USD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently consolidating within a well-defined horizontal channel following a bullish breakout from a previous downtrend line. Given the fundamental catalysts, including pivotal USD labor data and AUD retail sales figures, traders should brace for heightened volatility. Technically, a sustained hold above the support line at 0.6340 may trigger a bullish push toward resistance at 0.6440. However, traders should carefully monitor news events and technical confirmations before positioning.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.02.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCHF H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.05.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCHF pair today faces volatility due to key economic data releases. USD traders should pay close attention to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from S&P Global and ISM. These indices offer critical insights into the economic health of the US services sector. Positive PMI figures above 50.0 generally support a bullish outlook for the USD, increasing investor confidence. Conversely, the CHF is influenced today by Switzerland's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a crucial indicator for inflation expectations. Any CPI results significantly deviating from forecasts can induce volatility in CHF, impacting USD CHF price movements.


Price Action:
Analyzing USDCHF price action on the H4 chart, we notice the pair has been slightly bullish recently. However, in the last candles before market close, bearish momentum emerged, pushing prices towards the Ichimoku Cloud's upper band, which currently acts as immediate support. If prices breach and penetrate into the cloud, a bearish continuation is plausible. Meanwhile, the short-term moving average (9 MA, blue) and the longer-term average (17 MA, orange) have converged closely, with the 9 MA slightly dipping towards the 17 MA, signaling a potential bearish crossover and trend reversal if this continues.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku indicator reveals price currently positioned just above the cloud's upper boundary, suggesting immediate support. Entering the cloud would strengthen bearish sentiment and indicate potential downward momentum.
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The 9-period MA is declining slightly toward the 17-period MA, with both lines converging closely. A confirmed bearish crossover could signal a stronger bearish outlook.
Volumes: The last two volume bars are declining and red, signifying weakening bullish participation and strengthening the bearish scenario if volume continues to diminish.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows decreasing bullish momentum, implying weakening buying pressure and an impending bearish divergence. Traders should watch closely for the MACD line crossing below the signal line as a confirmation of bearish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently around 46.99, indicating a neutral momentum scenario with room for price movement in either direction. It highlights indecision in the current market context, urging caution.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies near the Ichimoku Cloud upper band around 0.8230; a significant break below could extend losses towards the psychological level of 0.8200.
Resistance: Key resistance is clearly identified at the recent high near 0.8336, serving as a barrier to bullish attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CHF H4 chart analysis suggests a cautious bearish bias due to the weakening bullish momentum evident in key technical indicators like MACD and MA convergence. Traders should closely monitor today's crucial economic releases for USD and CHF, as outcomes will significantly influence the USD-CHF pair's volatility. A breach of the immediate Ichimoku support could intensify bearish sentiments. Conversely, positive US data could reignite bullish momentum.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.05.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
EURUSD is influenced today by significant economic releases from both sides of the Atlantic. For the USD, traders are closely watching the International Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence (RCM/TIPP), and Treasury Bond Auction results. Positive outcomes from these reports, particularly higher exports or stronger consumer sentiment, could strengthen the USD. For EUR, key releases include Industrial Output, Jobless Claims, and several important PMI reports from S&P Global, providing insight into Eurozone economic health. Stronger-than-expected figures can bolster EUR demand, leading to bullish movements.


Price Action:
The EUR-USD pair is currently in a sideways channel on the H4 timeframe. After a notable bearish reaction from the broken ascending trend lines, the price recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting a potential move upward towards the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo). However, with the price now below previously broken uptrend lines, signs of a bearish trend initiation are prominent.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo): The EUR USD price is beneath the Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish pressure in the medium term. The cloud acts as a dynamic resistance zone, and a test of this area could either reinforce bearish sentiment or signal a possible bullish reversal upon a breakout above.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator is currently at 46.84, indicating neutral market conditions with a slight bearish bias. The RSI's position suggests room for price movement in either direction without being overextended.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator at 21.46 and 37.54 suggests oversold conditions, indicating potential short-term bullish momentum as price reacts upward from oversold levels. Traders should remain cautious, however, as momentum could quickly shift if resistance at the Ichimoku cloud holds.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is clearly established at 1.12940, the lower boundary of the current sideways channel.
Resistance: The closest resistance is at 1.14000, coinciding with the Ichimoku cloud lower boundary and previous horizontal resistance levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Based on technical indicators and price action analysis for EURUSD H4, the market exhibits bearish sentiment with potential short-term bullish corrections within the sideways channel. The upcoming economic releases from both USD and EUR regions could introduce volatility, necessitating careful monitoring of these fundamental events. Traders should watch closely for a clear break above the Ichimoku cloud or below the current channel support to determine the next directional trend.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.06.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USD/CHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
USDCHF is in focus today as markets react to key economic developments from both the U.S. and New Zealand. For the USD, attention centers on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, with the Federal Funds Rate expected to remain at 4.50%. However, the real drivers will be the FOMC Statement and Press Conference, where any hints of future rate hikes or economic concerns could spark volatility. Additional U.S. data, including a smaller-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories and a sharp rebound in consumer credit to $9.8B, may also influence dollar sentiment. On the NZD side, labor market data showed modest improvement with a 0.1% employment gain and steady unemployment at 5.1%, while wage growth came in softer than expected. The RBNZ Financial Stability Report and Governor Hawkesby’s speech may further shape the NZD outlook. Together, these events create a potentially volatile environment for USDCHF, with traders watching for confirmation of bullish momentum or fresh signals from monetary policy updates.


Price Action:
The USDCHF pair on the H4 timeframe has recently broken out of its bearish structure, confirmed by a strong bullish engulfing candle. The series of lower wicks beneath recent candles signals solid buying pressure and underlying support. This move comes after a period of sideways consolidation below the 200-period moving average, suggesting that the market is gaining bullish momentum. If the price manages to break and hold above the key resistance level at 0.83500, it could trigger a strong upward wave, shifting the overall market sentiment toward a more sustained bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
100-period Moving Average (MA100): The USDCHF price is currently trading below the 100-period moving average (orange line), indicating that the broader trend remains bearish. This moving average is acting as dynamic resistance, capping upward price movements. A decisive breakout above this level would be a key signal for potential trend reversal or the beginning of sustained bullish momentum.
Volume: Recent volume activity shows a noticeable spike alongside the latest strong bullish candle, suggesting increased market participation and conviction behind the breakout attempt. This rise in volume adds weight to the bullish breakout scenario, especially if followed by further gains above resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is established around the 0.82100 level, where multiple candles have shown lower wicks, signaling strong buying interest. A secondary support level is found at approximately 0.81500, marking a previous swing low and serving as a key threshold for potential bearish continuation if broken.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies near 0.82850, aligned with the 100-period moving average, which continues to act as a dynamic ceiling. A clear break above this could lead the price toward the next key resistance zone around 0.83500.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Overall, USDCHF is displaying early signs of a potential bullish reversal, supported by a breakout from its recent bearish structure, increased buying volume, and consistent price support near the 0.82100 level. While the pair remains below the 100-period moving average, the strong bullish candle and market reaction suggest growing momentum. A confirmed break above the 0.82850 resistance—particularly if driven by broader USD strength following U.S. economic events—could pave the way toward the 0.83500 level and signal a shift in market sentiment. Traders should remain attentive to both technical signals and upcoming fundamental developments, especially from the Federal Reserve, which may serve as key catalysts for the next major move.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.07.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBP/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD pair today is impacted by several key economic releases. For the GBP, significant data such as the RICS House Price Balance and HBOS House Price Index could lead to notable volatility, as higher-than-expected readings generally strengthen the Pound. Moreover, the recent Bank of England Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, and Interest Rate decision further shape traders' expectations about future monetary policy. On the USD side, upcoming releases such as Initial Jobless Claims and Wholesale Inventories can impact the USD valuation; a lower number of jobless claims would typically bolster the US dollar, reflecting a healthier labor market.


Price Action:
Analyzing the GBP-USD H4 chart, the price has been consolidating sideways within a clear support zone. Currently, a new green bullish candle indicates a reaction from the support zone around 1.3257. If the upper boundary of this zone fails to sustain price, a move downward toward the previously broken resistance line around 1.3220 could provide stronger support. However, given the distance from the existing upward trend line, the overall bullish trend remains intact.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently above the candles, indicating short-term bearish momentum. A shift below the candles would confirm a renewed bullish stance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI reading is at 45.17, signaling neutral momentum. There's room for price movements in both directions, without imminent overbought or oversold conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is slightly negative but approaching the zero line, indicating weakening bearish momentum and a potential bullish crossover soon, suggesting buyers may regain strength.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastics at 20.58 (main line) and 32.13 (signal line) indicate oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bullish reversal may occur soon.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at 1.3257, with a stronger support zone at 1.3220, coinciding with previous resistance turned support.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is near the recent swing high at 1.3385, providing the first significant barrier for bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD technical and fundamental daily chart analysis indicates the pair is consolidating within a robust support area. The potential for a bullish reversal from current support is bolstered by oversold Stochastics and a weakening bearish MACD signal. However, traders must closely monitor today's GBP and USD economic releases for increased volatility and directional clarity. Caution is advised due to the mixed signals from technical indicators, highlighting the importance of waiting for confirmed price action signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.08.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USD/CAD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.09.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD-CAD currency pair today is likely to experience significant volatility due to key economic news releases from both Canada and the United States. Canadian employment data, specifically the change in employment figures and the unemployment rate, is expected to strongly influence CAD strength. Better-than-expected job creation or a decline in the unemployment rate could strengthen the CAD against the USD. Conversely, several influential members of the US Federal Reserve, including Thomas Barkin, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, and Adriana Kugler, will deliver speeches today. Their commentary on future monetary policy directions and interest rates could cause fluctuations in the USD, especially if their tones are notably hawkish.


Price Action:
The USDCAD pair on the H4 chart has broken through the horizontal resistance at approximately 1.3882, potentially turning this level into new support upon any retest. The recent bullish candles show clear upward momentum; however, the price is currently extended significantly towards the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential corrective pullback soon. Importantly, the break of the descending trend line indicates a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment, with recent bullish divergence observed on RSI further reinforcing this view.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has touched and exceeded the upper Bollinger Band, indicating it may be overextended and due for a correction or sideways consolidation to return within a normal trading range.
RSI: Currently, the RSI shows bullish momentum but is nearing the overbought territory. Recent bullish divergence at previous lows suggests the bullish trend might still have underlying strength, though traders should anticipate corrective movements.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator is deeply in overbought territory (above 90), signaling a possible short-term reversal or consolidation ahead. Caution is advised, as the price could initiate a short-term corrective phase.
Volume: Volume analysis shows relatively moderate to high trading activity during the breakout, confirming strong market participation. However, watch for volume spikes during potential corrective moves for clues about strength and continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The newly established support at 1.3882 will be crucial in validating the breakout. Another significant support lies around 1.3800.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 1.3920 (current recent high), with the next major resistance located around the psychological level of 1.4000.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD pair on the H4 timeframe displays bullish tendencies, strongly supported by price action and technical indicators like the Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Stochastic. However, due to the substantial bullish extension, traders should anticipate possible corrective moves toward support levels before resuming upward momentum. Today's significant economic releases from Canada and influential speeches from US Federal Reserve members may lead to increased volatility; hence, traders should exercise caution and consider risk management strategies closely.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.09.2025

 

[FXGlory]

BTC/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, BTCUSD's price action is closely influenced by upcoming economic releases from the United States, including the NFIB Small Business Index and Core CPI data. A higher-than-expected NFIB Small Business Index could strengthen the USD, placing downward pressure on BTCUSD. Meanwhile, market participants keenly await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, given its critical impact on inflation expectations and potential Federal Reserve actions. A higher CPI reading may boost USD strength, potentially pressuring BTC downward.


Price Action:
BTC-USD analysis on the H4 timeframe continues to display an uptrend, currently undergoing a correction phase. Recently, BTCUSD reached a strong support zone evidenced by a confluence of the horizontal support level and ascending trend line. The formation of a doji candle at this support zone indicates market indecision, highlighting the critical nature of this technical level. Traders should closely monitor subsequent candles to confirm price direction.


Key Technical Indicators:
Volume: Volume indicators suggest moderate trading activity. While volume decreased slightly during the latest corrective candles, a spike in buying volume near current support would significantly reinforce bullish sentiment, confirming potential reversal points.
Parabolic SAR: Currently, the Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the price action, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. However, their proximity to price action hints that a reversal may be imminent should the price stabilize and rise from the support zone.
MFI (Money Flow Index): The MFI currently stands at 55.77, indicating balanced market participation with room for further buying or selling pressure. It suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, supporting the potential for price stabilization and subsequent bullish momentum from the current support zone.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows a diminishing bullish momentum, indicating a weakening uptrend in the short term. Traders should watch for a bullish crossover of the MACD and signal line to validate potential upward continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is identified at $10142.09–$10279.95, strengthened by a historical consolidation area and the ascending trend line.
Resistance: The immediate resistance levels to watch are around the recent high near $105786.14, with further resistance observed at historical peaks above this area.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD on the H4 chart currently shows a corrective phase within an overall bullish trend, supported by key indicators like Volume, Parabolic SAR, MFI, and MACD. Today's significant economic data releases from the U.S. pose potential volatility, likely affecting BTC USD movements sharply. Traders should cautiously observe the critical support zone at current levels for potential reversal signals, while maintaining awareness of U.S. economic indicators which could heavily influence the BTCUSD pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.13.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBP/AUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.14.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
GBPAUD is in focus today as markets react to significant economic releases from both the UK and Australia. From the GBP perspective, preliminary GDP figures came in stronger than expected at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming forecasts of 0.1%. Manufacturing production and industrial output, however, missed expectations, declining by 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. Despite a slightly wider goods trade deficit of -£19.7B, improvements in construction output and services index provided mixed signals for the UK economy. On the Australian side, employment data showed robust job growth, adding 20.9K positions against an anticipated 32.2K, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Traders will closely monitor how these mixed data points influence GBPAUD's direction, watching for potential shifts in sentiment or confirmation of the pair’s near-term momentum.


Price Action:
The GBPAUD pair on the H4 timeframe has recently shifted to a bearish structure, evidenced by the clear break and sustained movement below the 200-period moving average. The recent series of strong bearish candles highlights increased selling pressure, suggesting market sentiment has turned negative. This downward move follows an extended phase of consolidation around the moving average, indicating that sellers have gained decisive control. If the price continues to sustain this bearish momentum and clearly breaks below recent support levels, it could lead to further declines and solidify the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
100-period Moving Average (MA100): The GBPAUD price is currently trading below the 100-period moving average (blue line), confirming that the overall market sentiment remains bearish. This moving average has acted consistently as dynamic resistance, suppressing bullish attempts and reinforcing downward momentum. A sustained break above this moving average would signal a weakening of bearish control and potentially mark the beginning of a bullish reversal.
MACD Indicator: The MACD histogram remains below the zero line, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. However, the histogram bars have begun to shorten, indicating a possible weakening in bearish strength and hinting at the potential for a bullish crossover. Traders should closely watch the MACD line for any bullish crossover above the signal line, as this could further validate a potential reversal scenario.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest resistance lies near 2.06880, aligned with the 100-period moving average, which continues to act as a dynamic ceiling. A clear break above this could lead the price toward the next key resistance zone around 2.07600.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies near 2.06880, aligned with the 100-period moving average, which continues to act as a dynamic ceiling. A clear break above this could lead the price toward the next key resistance zone around 2.07600.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the GBPAUD pair is currently facing bearish pressure both technically and fundamentally. Despite better-than-expected UK GDP figures, mixed economic signals and robust employment data from Australia create uncertainty regarding future direction. Technically, price action confirms increased selling momentum with key moving averages acting as resistance, and MACD indicating potential for bearish momentum to weaken. Traders should closely monitor the pair’s reaction near critical support at 2.05650 and resistance around 2.06880 for clear directional cues, which could either confirm a continuation of the bearish trend or signal a possible bullish reversal.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/AUD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPAUD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.14.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBP/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.15.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD currency pair will experience heightened volatility today due to significant economic events from both the UK and the US. Traders will closely monitor the UK's GDP release, Manufacturing Production, and Trade Balance figures, which will reflect the overall health of the UK economy and may influence GBP strength. For the US, numerous crucial indicators such as PPI, Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and speeches by Fed officials Mary Daly and Jerome Powell could provide significant insights into future US monetary policy. More hawkish tones from these speeches or stronger-than-expected economic data would likely boost the USD, potentially placing downward pressure on the GBPUSD pair.


Price Action:
The GBP-USD pair on the H4 chart recently pulled back from the upper Bollinger Band, retreating to test the middle Bollinger Band. This mid-band area acts as critical immediate support, and a failure here might see the pair challenging the ascending trendline near the 1.31735 level. Should this key trendline fail to hold, a deeper correction towards the psychological support at 1.30038 might be seen. Conversely, bullish recovery above the mid-band may drive the price to retest the major resistance at 1.34331.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands for GBP/USD are currently converging, indicating reduced volatility and a potential upcoming breakout. The price reacted from the upper band and is testing support at the middle band. A decisive break below the middle band could signal increased bearish momentum.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have recently switched below the price, signaling a potential bullish reversal on this timeframe. However, traders should remain cautious and confirm this bullish signal with price action.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A divergence between price action and RSI is evident, with RSI making lower highs while the price recently made higher highs, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and potential bearish reversal ahead.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic oscillator is approaching oversold conditions, currently at 9.11 and 29.76. This suggests that a short-term bounce might occur soon if the price finds support, potentially limiting immediate downside risk.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.31735, aligning with the ascending trendline and previous price action area. The next significant support lies at the psychological level of 1.30038, historically significant for price reversals.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at the recent swing high at 1.34331, representing a critical barrier for bulls to overcome for continued upward momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP-USD H4 technical and fundamental daily chart analysis reveals a critical juncture for the pair. Current indicators suggest mixed signals, indicating caution in both directions. Traders should pay close attention to today's economic events and news releases, as significant volatility is anticipated. Proper risk management and close monitoring of price action around key levels and economic announcements are strongly recommended.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.15.2025

 

[FXGlory]

NZDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.16.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's fundamental outlook for NZDUSD is marked by critical economic data from both New Zealand and the United States. On the USD side, traders will closely monitor the release of Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts, indicators that reflect the health of the U.S. housing market. Additionally, the Import Price Index will provide early inflation insights, while the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data may affect market sentiment toward the USD. Moreover, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin’s speech will be scrutinized for insights into future Fed monetary policy. In New Zealand, traders will pay attention to BusinessNZ’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), which could indicate economic expansion or contraction and influence the NZD’s strength.


Price Action:
Analyzing the NZD/USD pair on the H4 timeframe indicates a clear bearish trend through recent price action. The market has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows, confirming ongoing selling pressure. The most recent candles display bearish momentum, with price action struggling to break above moving average resistances, and continuously testing support near recent lows. The candlestick patterns suggest the bears remain in control, albeit with some hesitance approaching the immediate support area.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator distinctly illustrates the bearish sentiment as its last 8 dots have consistently been placed above the price candles. This alignment signals continuing downward pressure and indicates that sellers are maintaining their dominance, suggesting further bearish continuation is likely unless a bullish reversal is clearly established.
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 17): The moving averages confirm the bearish scenario; the short-term MA (9, blue line) recently crossed below the longer-term MA (17, orange line), a classic bearish crossover indicating continued selling pressure. As the price remains below both MAs, bearish momentum remains strong and intact.
Volumes: The Volumes indicator is showing decreased buying activity with slightly increasing volume on bearish candles, signifying stronger selling pressure at current price levels. This suggests that bearish sentiment persists, with market participants leaning towards further downside movements.
OsMA (Moving Average of Oscillator): The OsMA indicator currently shows bars below the zero line and increasing in negative magnitude, reflecting growing bearish momentum. Such negative divergence reinforces the potential for further downward movement, indicating sellers are likely to maintain control in the short term.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 39.41, trending downward but not yet in oversold territory. This signifies that while the bearish sentiment is clearly strong, the pair still has room to continue falling before becoming oversold, which would signal caution for potential reversals or consolidation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is identified at the 0.58585-0.58710 zone, a critical area where recent lows have formed.
Resistance: The nearest resistance levels are at 0.59350 and subsequently at 0.59750, where previous swing highs and consolidation phases occurred.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD USD H4 chart analysis continues to reflect a bearish trend, supported strongly by the Parabolic SAR, moving averages crossover, and negative OsMA. Traders should consider short positions, particularly if the immediate support at 0.58585 is breached with conviction. However, caution is advised ahead of significant fundamental news today from both NZD and USD, as these events could trigger increased volatility and potential reversals or corrective moves.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/NZD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDNZD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.16.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.20.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, market participants are closely monitoring the Canadian CPI (Consumer Price Index) data release, a critical inflation indicator expected to influence the Canadian Dollar significantly. Higher-than-forecast CPI figures usually strengthen the CAD, reflecting potential rate hikes by the Bank of Canada aimed at combating inflation. Additionally, several Federal Reserve members, including Barkin, Bostic, and Musalem, are scheduled to speak. Hawkish remarks from these members could potentially bolster the USD by signaling tighter monetary policy ahead.


Price Action:
The USD-CAD currency pair on the H4 chart has recently initiated an upward trend after forming a noticeable bottom. The pair is approaching a critical resistance zone, and given its recent momentum, it may encounter difficulty surpassing this level on its initial attempt. Notably, a bullish divergence is observed between the price and RSI lows, suggesting underlying bullish strength. The current price rests on a supportive ascending trend line, reinforcing potential continuation of the upward movement.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator currently shows bullish momentum, with dots positioned below the price bars, affirming continued buying interest and upward potential.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI value stands at 51.53, indicating a neutral market condition. However, a visible bullish divergence between price lows and RSI lows highlights increasing upward momentum, which supports the bullish scenario.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram reflects decreasing bullish momentum, suggesting caution. Although still above zero, the potential for a bearish crossover should be closely monitored, signaling a possible short-term reversal or consolidation.
Williams %R: The Williams %R indicator is at -46.56, indicating balanced market conditions without clear overbought or oversold signals. However, it confirms the upward trajectory with room for further price advancement before reaching an overbought scenario.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.38723, aligning with the current ascending support trend line and recent price consolidation.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.40250-1.41000, coinciding with historical highs and significant selling interest.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 analysis suggests an ongoing bullish bias, supported by technical indicators and recent price action behavior. While immediate resistance could temporarily hinder the bullish movement, underlying momentum indicators, notably the RSI divergence, favor an eventual upward breakout. Traders should cautiously watch today's Canadian CPI data and Fed members' speeches for significant volatility that could rapidly shift market sentiment and affect the USD/CAD price action.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.20.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.21.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, attention in the currency markets is turning toward several key developments that could influence the EUR/USD pair. The European Central Bank is set to release its Financial Stability Review, a biannual report that provides insights into potential risks to the euro area’s financial system. Any signs of increased vulnerabilities or a more cautious tone could weigh on the euro. Additionally, the German 10-year bond auction, with a yield of 2.47% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.4, offers further clues about investor confidence and demand for euro-denominated debt. On the U.S. side, crude oil inventory data is due, with a sharp drawdown of -0.9 million barrels expected compared to the previous build of 3.5 million. A larger-than-anticipated decline could support the U.S. dollar by reflecting stronger demand or supply disruptions. Furthermore, remarks from FOMC members Barkin and Bowman are scheduled later in the day. Should their comments lean hawkish, market participants may anticipate continued policy tightening, potentially boosting the USD against the euro.


Price Action:
The EUR-USD currency pair on the H4 chart has recently initiated an upward trend after forming a noticeable bottom. The pair is approaching a critical resistance zone, and given its recent momentum, it may encounter difficulty surpassing this level on its initial attempt. Notably, a bullish divergence is observed between the price and RSI lows, suggesting underlying bullish strength. The current price rests on a supportive ascending trend line, reinforcing potential continuation of the upward movement.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI currently reads 62.47, indicating strengthening bullish momentum as it approaches the overbought zone. This upward movement reflects increasing buying interest, aligning with the recent breakout above the descending channel. The sustained rise in RSI suggests that bulls are gaining control, and further upside could be expected if momentum continues.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows a bullish crossover, with the MACD line moving above the signal line and histogram bars turning positive. This crossover confirms a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish, reinforcing the potential for continued upward price action following the breakout.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is seen near 1.12250, aligning closely with the upper boundary of the recently broken descending channel. This level now acts as a potential retest zone, offering a key area where bulls may seek to defend the breakout and confirm a trend reversal.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is located at 1.13125, which marks a critical horizontal level and coincides with a previous swing high. A decisive break above this area would likely signal stronger bullish control and could open the path for further upside momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is currently at a pivotal juncture, with both fundamental and technical factors aligning to suggest a potential shift in market direction. From a fundamental perspective, upcoming eurozone and U.S. events—such as the ECB’s Financial Stability Review and comments from FOMC members—could inject volatility and guide near-term sentiment. On the technical front, the pair’s breakout above a long-standing descending channel, supported by bullish signals from both RSI and MACD indicators, points to growing upward momentum. The immediate support at 1.12250 and the key resistance at 1.13125 will be critical levels to watch. A sustained move above resistance could validate the bullish reversal and set the stage for further gains, while a failure to hold above support may call the breakout into question.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.21.2025

 

[FXGlory]

BTCUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.22.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD pair reached an impressive new all-time high above $109,800 on Wednesday, surpassing its previous ATH of $109,588 set earlier this year on January 20. The bullish momentum remains intact with Bitcoin now targeting the psychological level of $120,000. Today's economic calendar is dominated by the G7 meetings in Alberta, Canada, where finance ministers and central bankers will discuss crucial topics such as global economic outlook, AI innovations, and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor the U.S. unemployment claims and S&P Global PMI reports for fresh insights into the health of the U.S. economy, which could indirectly influence BTC/USD price dynamics through USD valuation.


Price Action:
BTCUSD analysis on the H4 timeframe shows a bullish trend continuation after the MA9 (blue short-term moving average) crossed above the MA17 (orange long-term moving average), confirming bullish momentum. Price action indicates strong buyer presence, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. The latest candles maintain bullish sentiment, reinforcing expectations of further upside potential as Bitcoin moves towards the next target near $120,000.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA9 & MA17): The short-term MA9 crossing above the longer-term MA17 signals strong bullish momentum. The Bitcoin price is comfortably above both moving averages, suggesting ongoing bullish sentiment with potential for continued upward movement.
Parabolic SAR: The indicator shows bullish sentiment with dots positioned below the BTC price candles, supporting the ongoing upward trend and providing potential trailing stops for bullish positions.
Volumes: Trading volumes have notably increased, especially during upward movements, indicating strong market participation supporting the bullish scenario. Consistent buying volume reinforces bullish conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently, RSI stands at 63.92, below the overbought threshold of 70, indicating further room for upward momentum before reaching overextended conditions. RSI thus supports continued bullish sentiment.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $103,263, coinciding with recent price consolidation areas.
Resistance: The nearest significant resistance is the current ATH at approximately $109,800, followed by psychological resistance at $120,000, which will be the next key bullish target.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD remains strongly bullish on the H4 timeframe, supported by positive MA crossover, bullish Parabolic SAR positioning, rising volumes, and favorable RSI readings. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor today's key economic indicators from the U.S. and G7 developments, as these events could induce short-term volatility in BTC USD price action. The next significant bullish objective remains the $120,000 mark, pending sustained buying volume and supportive fundamental conditions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.22.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBP/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.23.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's economic calendar for GBPUSD highlights several important news events that could significantly impact the pair's volatility. From the UK, traders are watching the NIQ consumer confidence data and the Office for National Statistics' retail sales figures, both crucial indicators of economic health and consumer spending trends. Stronger-than-expected data could provide bullish momentum for GBP. Conversely, the USD is influenced by several speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including President Alberto Musalem, Jeffrey Schmid, and Governor Lisa Cook. Their remarks on monetary policy and economic stability could notably affect USD strength, especially if they adopt a more hawkish tone.


Price Action:
Analyzing GBP-USD in the H4 timeframe shows recent price action forming an ascending channel. After successfully pulling back to a previously broken resistance line (now acting as support), GBP/USD price is currently approaching a critical horizontal resistance level. The price action is slightly consolidative, indicating indecision as the price interacts with this level. Traders should watch closely for a clear break above resistance or a potential breakdown below channel support to confirm future price direction.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots remain below the price candles, supporting a bullish bias. This suggests that, for now, buyers still have control, though a reversal could be imminent if dots shift above the price.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are moderately wide, signaling moderate volatility. The price is trading near the upper band, indicating bullish momentum, but also cautioning a potential reversal or consolidation due to possible overextension.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator currently stands at around 59, which indicates bullish sentiment but still has space to advance before reaching overbought territory. This suggests bullish momentum might continue in the short term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram displays slightly weakening bullish momentum, with decreasing bar sizes. Although the MACD line remains above the signal line, traders should watch for a potential bearish crossover signaling weakening buying pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate key support is at 1.3185, coinciding with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and recent price action pullback.
Resistance: Major resistance is evident at the horizontal level of 1.3465, closely aligned with the channel's upper boundary. A break above this resistance could trigger a strong bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
GBPUSD on the H4 timeframe maintains a cautiously bullish outlook. While price action is positive, caution is advised given the resistance overhead and weakening MACD momentum. Upcoming fundamental news from both the UK and US could provide strong catalysts for GBP-USD’s next significant move. Traders should stay alert for the market reactions to economic releases and central bank speeches, which could alter the current technical landscape considerably.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.23.2025

 

[FXGlory]

ETH/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.26.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the ETHUSD pair could experience lower liquidity and irregular volatility due to the US banks being closed for Memorial Day. Historically, when banks are closed, the market becomes less liquid, and speculative activities tend to increase, causing potential abnormal volatility levels. Ethereum’s fundamental outlook remains dependent on general crypto market sentiment and developments, including regulatory announcements and technological updates on the Ethereum blockchain.


Price Action:
ETH-USD price action on the H4 timeframe recently broke a significant downtrend line, signaling a transition from bearish to bullish sentiment. After this breakout, ETHUSD exhibited a bullish rally followed by a correction phase, currently testing the Ichimoku cloud region. The pullback towards a previously broken level indicates potential support around that area, setting the stage for another bullish leg if buyers step back in.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: ETH USD is testing the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a critical juncture. A clear rebound off this area would validate bullish strength, while breaking deeper into the cloud could hint at bearish momentum returning.
Parabolic SAR: The indicator has recently shifted above the candlesticks, suggesting current short-term bearish pressure. Traders should await a reversal below the candlesticks to confirm a resumption of bullish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 43.73, highlighting neutral market conditions with no immediate indication of overbought or oversold status. This provides room for price movement in either direction.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic is in oversold territory (18.20, 22.64), suggesting potential upward movement soon. Traders should watch for a bullish crossover as a confirmation signal for entering long positions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is at 2420, aligning with the Ichimoku cloud’s upper boundary and previous structural support. The next significant support is around 2260.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located at 2655, with a stronger resistance level noted at the recent high of 2734.


Conclusion and Consideration:
ETH/USD H4 analysis indicates the potential continuation of bullish momentum following the recent correction to the previously broken resistance (now support). However, traders must monitor price behavior closely within the Ichimoku cloud. Given today's US bank holiday, irregular volatility and low liquidity could affect market conditions, making it essential to maintain tight risk management.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.26.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USD/JPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.27.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's fundamental landscape is marked by crucial events impacting both the USD and JPY. On the JPY front, traders are closely monitoring the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) and the speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Any unexpected hawkishness in Governor Ueda's remarks could strengthen the Yen significantly. For USD, attention centers around Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's participation in a monetary policy panel and the latest figures on Durable Goods Orders. Hawkish signals or positive economic data from the U.S. are likely to support the Dollar.


Price Action:
The USD-JPY pair on the H4 timeframe currently demonstrates a critical retest of the prevailing downtrend line, following a successful bounce from a clear support zone. The current price action suggests a pivotal moment; if the price convincingly breaks the downtrend line, subsequent bullish momentum could drive the price toward previously identified resistance zones marked clearly in red above the current level.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The indicator currently signals a bearish market sentiment, positioned above the recent candles. However, the approaching retest and potential breakout could signal a reversal of sentiment if the Parabolic SAR dots shift beneath the price candles.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are moderately expanded, indicating sustained volatility. The price is interacting closely with the lower band, which may signal potential oversold conditions and an impending bullish reversal if the trend line is successfully breached.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows consistent negative bars, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. However, the narrowing bars indicate declining selling pressure, suggesting potential weakening bearish sentiment and an upcoming momentum shift toward bullish territory upon a successful breakout.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator is deeply oversold at approximately -78.80. This significantly oversold condition suggests a potential bullish correction or reversal, especially if the price breaks the descending trend line resistance.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and significant support is clearly established at approximately 142.160. A break below this could see further bearish momentum.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is situated at approximately 143.155, with subsequent higher resistances at approximately 144.820 and 146.150.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY H4 technical and fundamental analysis suggests cautious optimism for potential bullish developments, contingent on breaking the prevailing downtrend line. Traders must closely monitor today's economic releases and central bank speeches as they hold significant potential to drive volatility. Due to critical technical points and fundamental events today, risk management should be diligently applied to navigate potential sharp market movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD /JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.27.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUD/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.28.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's fundamental landscape is shaped by key economic releases and central bank developments influencing both the AUD and USD. For the Australian Dollar, focus is on the year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in at 2.3%, slightly below the forecast of 2.4%, potentially softening inflation expectations and reducing pressure on the RBA to tighten policy further. Construction Work Done matched expectations at 0.5% q/q, offering little surprise to the market. On the USD side, traders are eyeing several important events, including the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which printed at -9 versus the prior -13, indicating slight improvement but still signaling contraction. The release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes later in the day will be closely scrutinized for any hawkish tilt, while the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin could impact market sentiment, especially in energy-related sectors. Stronger-than-expected signals from the Fed could provide support for the U.S. Dollar.


Price Action:
The AUD-USD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently consolidating within a rising channel, bounded by clearly defined red trendlines. Price action shows a recent rejection near the upper boundary, followed by a retreat toward the midline of the Ichimoku cloud, which is now acting as potential dynamic support. The RSI is hovering around 42.80, indicating mild bearish momentum but not yet oversold. Notably, the price remains above the long-term ascending trendline, suggesting the broader bullish structure is intact. A decisive move below the Ichimoku cloud and channel support could signal a bearish reversal, while a bounce from this level may open the path for another test of the upper resistance line.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is testing the top of the cloud after falling below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, signaling short-term bearish pressure. A break below the cloud could confirm a bearish shift, while a bounce may revive bullish momentum.
RSI: RSI sits at 42.80, showing mild bearish momentum but not oversold. A rebound from this level could hint at a potential bullish reversal if supported by price action


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first key support is located at approximately 0.64080, near the ascending channel's lower boundary. A deeper support level lies around 0.63650, which has previously acted as a price floor.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is seen at approximately 0.64950, near recent highs. A higher resistance level is positioned around 0.65400, marking the upper boundary of the rising channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD-USD pair remains at a critical juncture, with price action consolidating within a rising channel and key support levels being tested. While fundamentals suggest mixed sentiment—soft Australian inflation data versus potentially hawkish U.S. signals—the technical outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as the price holds above 0.64080. Traders should closely monitor the reaction to upcoming U.S. events and watch for a decisive move either below the Ichimoku cloud for a bearish confirmation or a rebound toward resistance levels for a continuation of the upward trend.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD /USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.28.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.29.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's GBPUSD pair is expected to see heightened volatility due to key events in both the UK and US. GBP is likely to react significantly to speeches by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, who may offer clues about future interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, the USD faces multiple key economic releases, including GDP data, initial jobless claims, and speeches by Federal Reserve members Austan Goolsbee and Adriana Kugler, which could heavily influence USD valuation through shifts in monetary policy expectations and economic outlook.


Price Action:
On the GBPUSD H4 chart, the pair maintains a bullish long-term trend but has recently retraced after touching the upper Bollinger Band, now approaching the lower band. Current candlestick formations suggest short-term bearish momentum, reinforced by the Parabolic SAR dots positioned above the candles, indicating selling pressure. Traders should watch closely for potential reversals near key support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: GBP/USD recently touched the upper band and has swiftly reversed to test the lower band, signaling possible short-term bearish consolidation. Traders might anticipate volatility and potential rebounds from the lower Bollinger Band.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are currently placed above the candles, clearly signaling a bearish sentiment in the short term. Traders should consider this indication for potential continuation of downward momentum until a reversal occurs.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is declining, indicating waning bullish momentum and a potential bearish crossover. This suggests that the selling pressure may increase in the near term, prompting traders to prepare for potential downward moves.
Williams %R: Currently at -87.17, Williams %R indicates an oversold condition. This oversold level typically hints at a potential upcoming reversal or at least a temporary bullish correction, advising caution for short traders.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for GBP USD is located around the 1.3430 area, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band and ascending trendline.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is observed at approximately 1.3485, aligning with recent price highs and the previous breakout level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Technical indicators on the GBP-USD H4 chart currently reflect short-term bearish sentiment within a broader bullish trend. The market's response to today's key economic announcements and central bank speeches will be critical in determining the pair's next directional move. Traders should exercise caution due to expected volatility around the announcements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.29.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.30.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD currency pair reflects market dynamics between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, notable volatility is expected due to key economic data and speeches impacting both currencies. For the USD, significant events include speeches from FOMC members Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, and Raphael Bostic, along with critical economic releases like Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. For EUR, traders will closely monitor German and Eurozone CPI data and Retail Sales reports, which are essential indicators influencing monetary policy and inflation expectations.


Price Action:
EUR-USD price action analysis on the H4 timeframe shows bullish momentum. Recently, the EURUSD broke and successfully retested a crucial resistance level, now acting as support, signaling bullish continuation potential. Currently, the price is heading towards the next resistance level at 1.14052. If this resistance is breached convincingly, the price action may target the upper resistance trend line, enhancing bullish sentiment further.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility with the price currently trading near the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. Continued trading near the upper band suggests potential upward continuation but also calls for vigilance for potential short-term corrections.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator is below the price bars, confirming the bullish trend. It indicates continued bullish sentiment until the dots reverse position above the price.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator is at 58.22, suggesting moderate bullish momentum without being in the overbought territory. There is room for further upside movement, supporting a potential rise toward resistance.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD histogram is positive and recently crossed above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. This indicator suggests increased buying pressure, reinforcing bullish sentiment in the short term.
Awesome Oscillator: The Awesome Oscillator has recently shifted to a small positive value, highlighting a bullish reversal from previous bearish momentum. The oscillator supports current bullish price action, though continued monitoring is essential for confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.11849, which aligns with the recently retested significant support.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.14052, which coincides with key horizontal resistance and recent price action highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD H4 analysis indicates a bullish bias supported by technical indicators and confirmed by recent price action. Traders should monitor closely upcoming US and EU economic data and speeches, which could significantly affect volatility and the EURUSD pair’s trajectory. A break above 1.14052 may trigger further bullish momentum, aiming towards the upper resistance trend line. Traders should manage risk carefully due to potential volatility from today's news events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.30.2025