Crude to $100 and above

[Hook Shot]

Interesting calypso.......... why would america want it down to $45 is it political
-A i.e elections due soon ?
or
-B to squeeze hit Latin Americans, Iranians, Russians et al ?

andycan - this is feeling like dead cat............needs to regain $63 (previous spike low in that zone) and even then 65ish was last swing high. Verdict probably neutral as we try and base for a while - maybe.

Hook Shot

Hook Shot

 

[andycan]

Sure is Hook Shoot
im scalping/daytrading crude no major positions until it is clear the pop to 68-71(dec) is realistic but as with gold it looks and feels counter trend if you want to see what crude can do take a look at sugar now sugar surged because of its relation to bio fuels so the bull campaign of last year for sugar was energy related not consumable giving weight to parabolics what goes up must come down harder and faster


Andy

 

[TWI]

One thing to remember is that crops such as sugar are short term cyclical. When it comes to sugar countries like India can crank up supply very quickly when the prices look attractive. This was always a flag to me in the Sugar bull story and as a result I missed out on plenty of upside but at least i did not get caught in the downside. With things like Gas, Oil and mined products the supply side is more constrained as there needs to be more infrastructure investment over a period of time before supply comes on line. Sugar and corn stories are old and the reality was that demand was never spot. There is likely to be life in the forwards 2008 on when ethanol plants come online

 

[andycan]

oh absolutely im just pointing out that though sugar is a sessonal commodity the bull run was energy related

Andy

 

[Hook Shot]

twalker - Great points ......

andycan - you seem like a REAL perma bear ..................... have you taken a decent bullish position in anything recently - last 12m? No malice intended...haha.

Hook Shot

 

[andycan]

twalker - Great points ......

andycan - you seem like a REAL perma bear ..................... have you taken a decent bullish position in anything recently - last 12m? No malice intended...haha.

Hook Shot

Hahahaha
well without boring you i was shorting US bonds all the way down then was looking for a low and was swing trading bonds up holding 2-3 days max,bought gold then it looked toppy and started to short it initiated a long last week at 595 dec and covered today at 607-608
im long crude from 61.50 have a stop limit order 63.05. have been long in es im long on a share that was mentioned on some post EGLT from 17
a chap wanted to buy and i thought it was a great short but i could not short it so i decided to buy it when it hit my downside target apart from that im in and out of bonds es gold and sometimes when i bored i trade the grains and if im in the mood for excitement i will scalp NG

Andy

 

[Hook Shot]

Great response andycan......... by the way you sound like you're in the business - true/false ?

 

[andycan]

Great response andycan......... by the way you sound like you're in the business - true/false ?

Hook Shot
I do trade for a living
its the best job i have ever had


Andy

 

[TWI]

if im in the mood for excitement i will scalp NG

either mental or pissed

 

[andycan]

twalker,

thats a jest if im looking for excitement and im in a gambling mood i rather go and play poker with the guys
i dont trade Natural Gas everyday simply because i dont have RT via my charting service so when i trade it its because i analysed the market the night before then i trade it with limit and stop orders and keep tabs via IB charting service which is totally crap.
so even though i can see live prices its not comfortable and there are days i can do it and other i just can't. in my trading world thats about as much excitement as it gets..

 

[TWI]

I like to trade some of the NG spreads. although not quite as aggressively as Brian Hunter. hear he was long a few tank loads of H7/J7 which a chart will show you went from 2.4 ot 0.4....Nasty. Last year the spread blew out wide and then dumped hard, guess that was how he made a bil last year.
Nat Gas is one scary mf.
Mind you most commodities seem to be a bit like that right now. Crude has been particularly frustrating for me recently. I am starting to hate the sh-t.

 

[andycan]

hahah
yes NG can be wild but i tend to trade short term and im maybe to quick to pull out or lock in profits
this is typical me!! take at look at gold my targets was initially 607ish 615-620 and a stretch at 627 give or take 615-620 is my ideal
i went long in stages of 595 596 597 and a few in between ok when it popped to 612 i decided to protect my profits in stages of 605-607 what happened i got stopped out what i should have done( and this i know) is protect my profits but at break even with maybe a stop around the 598 -599 area because if its going to my target this area wont be hit but when im in a trade too long i get itchy fingers this happens to me a lot and its a fault in my character, it has saved my bacon more than once but equally i have seen home runs run away from me too. also in my defence i still consider this a counter trend move and the change could be fast and furious the current retracement in gold should be it but it could go to 601 area im kind of in the sidelines now

 

[Hook Shot]

Are we there yet ?

Oil bear wave is 90d old on 12th Oct and 3m old on Friday 14th. (I think the peak was 14th July)
Katrina sell off ended around 3m+/-

Also... last week's lows came within 30/50c of the 2006 lows in Feb....

{Emergency Opec meeting scheduled for 18th Oct.}

Hook Shot

 

[andycan]

it should be time for bounce we got $64 nov was looking at 68 not done timing work but its looking a little overstretched

 

[roguetrader]

OPEC prepares for action.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={8F2F6328-A68B-426E-9016-5B4380F1F9E0}

 

[Hook Shot]

The Guvn'r says $70 before $50 ............ Boone Pickens (cnbc midday)
As we test last week's lows the risk profile for long trades is improving considerably........
Hopefully we get yet another test on inventory numbers....

Pickens also expect significant tightening in supplies ......... during rest of q4 and Q1-07

 

[andycan]

i certainly agree with that we have a basing action going on on the weekly small divergence between nov and dec

 

[Hook Shot]

andy- does that mean you have buy stops on the Dec cct ? OR are you waiting to pounce ?
OR have you taken the plunge........?
HS

 

[Hook Shot]

EARLY WARNING!

Could there be a military conflict in the works before Nov 7 elections ? Oil's one day rally (so far) is not that significant yet .... but IF there is something in the works - it's way TOO CHEAP!!!

We're only two dollars (200pts if you prefer) off the lows so if this Madman is even half right - shorts should at least be covered. I'm long and right so far but waiting on a dip to get some more in...

 

[TWI]

I'm a small long also now. I still do not much like the structure but with eisenhower carrier group steaming towards the gulf and arriving pre-election there is no telling what geopolitical trigger may be in the pipe in an attempt to prop up the Bu****e farce. I see GW dropped to a new all time popularity low in last weeks poll. He better be sure there are dodgy diebold machines in all the polling stations or the dictatorship may come off the rails.