troyresearch
Active member
- Messages
- 132
- Likes
- 0
The US DoE has forecast that it'll remain average out at above USD 68 / barrel at least until the end of 2007. But beware the pricking of the commodities bubble, crude isn't totally immune from the influences of other markets...
With Crude hurtling towards $60 this now seems a crazy notion - but how crazy is it really ?? Some of the guys who were saying this last year and this year are now kicking it into 2007 (with outside chance of Q4-2006). Bottom line they still believe!
In the meantime, Oil looks like getting close to a buy - if not wb 11/9 then soon afterwards - this meltdown can't continue at this breakneck speed. Time to consider buy stops close to $60 ?
If I was OPEC I would be cutting production NOW! They meet on Sep 11...
Hook Shot
In the meantime, Oil looks like getting close to a buy - if not wb 11/9 then soon afterwards - this meltdown can't continue at this breakneck speed. Time to consider buy stops close to $60 ?
If I was OPEC I would be cutting production NOW! They meet on Sep 11...
Hook Shot
adrianallen99
Established member
- Messages
- 630
- Likes
- 4
Maybe the price will go back up after US elections.
Crude setting up as HOT trade
I'm watching for test of Monday lows this week - for lower risk entry. However, new lows would make it even better trade strategically.
US at highs Oil at lows ............ something MUST give......... it's a game of patience ?
HS
I'm watching for test of Monday lows this week - for lower risk entry. However, new lows would make it even better trade strategically.
US at highs Oil at lows ............ something MUST give......... it's a game of patience ?
HS
rav700
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,170
- Likes
- 71
Hook Shot said:
I am planning to buy my December oil contract and let it roll
I see oil going to 68 to 70 atleast by december /January.
A very good trade indeed.....still got a lil bit of downside one more test of a the low lets see what happens..............
andycan
Established member
- Messages
- 630
- Likes
- 28
i see crude now looking for a counter trend rally as it stands 68 ish would be cool main support at the 71 area then another major drop all the way down to the 40-45 dollar area not done any timing work but would like to see the end of the counter trend prior to december
Andy
Andy
andycan -68ish yes please ......................40/45 would be too good to be true...fingers crossed though.
Rav - I see the downside potential near term cos we still haven't really strung a run together. But better to alert while it's simmering than when the train has long left station - so to speak.
Cheers lads
HS
Rav - I see the downside potential near term cos we still haven't really strung a run together. But better to alert while it's simmering than when the train has long left station - so to speak.
Cheers lads
HS
TWI
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,559
- Likes
- 269
Swing will be if Washington or Israel go on the pre-emptive against Iran in October. Could be just what GW's boyz need for the election and y'know that Am-mad-in-the-head is apparently a "threat to us all".
There is a large oi in $100 dec calls. It remains to be seen if this is really money down the toilet bowl.
If you would like to think that America will not believe this time well...here is proof of the dumbing down of the American public. Look at the newsweek covers all over the World and then the same issue in the US.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3037881/site/newsweek/
Personal opinion is that we will not see $100 or anything near it.
There is a large oi in $100 dec calls. It remains to be seen if this is really money down the toilet bowl.
If you would like to think that America will not believe this time well...here is proof of the dumbing down of the American public. Look at the newsweek covers all over the World and then the same issue in the US.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3037881/site/newsweek/
Personal opinion is that we will not see $100 or anything near it.
andycan
Established member
- Messages
- 630
- Likes
- 28
Personal opinion is that we will not see $100 or anything near it.[/QUOTE]
here here
Hook Shot 40-45 dollar a barrel is not unrealistic we are not running out of crude anytime soon i think the premium placed on crude is out of control and the only ones making it big are the big index funds buying up because they have the power all power dissipates eventually
crude's meteoric rise to this level is completely unjustified the big boyz have made huge money its time they give it back!!
also from a technical perspective, when there is a parabolic rise the drop is hard fast and furious(most cases) right back to where it all began
someones going to get caught with their trousers down that should be fun
Andy
here here
Hook Shot 40-45 dollar a barrel is not unrealistic we are not running out of crude anytime soon i think the premium placed on crude is out of control and the only ones making it big are the big index funds buying up because they have the power all power dissipates eventually
crude's meteoric rise to this level is completely unjustified the big boyz have made huge money its time they give it back!!
also from a technical perspective, when there is a parabolic rise the drop is hard fast and furious(most cases) right back to where it all began
someones going to get caught with their trousers down that should be fun
Andy
TWI
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,559
- Likes
- 269
The index funds are actually suffering this year as theynot only lose on the contango rolls but also on the flat price. GSCI is so weighted towards energy that they are over 16% down on year.
The oil companies did very well out of this and will continue to do so. There iis still a premium built in for middle east disruption but as time passes and no bombs fly there may well be some drift. Opec are making noises about a cut but nothing is decided and no emergency session has been called. Oct deadline with Iran could be largest event but currently looking unlikely that there will be immediate millitary action although factions of US administration would like everybody to believe this is a credible threat. In short there is no front end shortage of the black stuff , just look at the contango.
Interesting exchanges - great stuff.
andy - I'm not against 40/45 - it's just that the profit potential on a counter trend rally followed by a drop below $50 is so large that I can't get my head around it. I know you gave no timescale but further out there is no reason why Oil can't test the breakout zone in 40's. (also ~50% of highs) ....... My comment was about me keeping MY feet on the ground not about querying your potential price target...
twalker - I also have that feeling about an October Surprise which might be in the works. Will anything come of it they haven't told me ...... but I anticipate OIL price will tell us. In any case it would seem reasonable for oil to drift up into Iran deadline.
Like others out there I'm uneasy. Equities, Oil and Volatility index are not pricing in uncertainty .... It seems all you have to do is buy stocks, short oil then sit back and watch our profits multiply.... If only life were that simple. ...... Still the trend is your friend !
Hook Shot
andy - I'm not against 40/45 - it's just that the profit potential on a counter trend rally followed by a drop below $50 is so large that I can't get my head around it. I know you gave no timescale but further out there is no reason why Oil can't test the breakout zone in 40's. (also ~50% of highs) ....... My comment was about me keeping MY feet on the ground not about querying your potential price target...
twalker - I also have that feeling about an October Surprise which might be in the works. Will anything come of it they haven't told me ...... but I anticipate OIL price will tell us. In any case it would seem reasonable for oil to drift up into Iran deadline.
Like others out there I'm uneasy. Equities, Oil and Volatility index are not pricing in uncertainty .... It seems all you have to do is buy stocks, short oil then sit back and watch our profits multiply.... If only life were that simple. ...... Still the trend is your friend !
Hook Shot
andycan
Established member
- Messages
- 630
- Likes
- 28
twalker i stand corrected!! index funds are suffering now and i expect more suffering.
Hook Shot my apologies! i wasn't having a dig. the target is my expectation kind of a road map of things to come if i know where im going i can plan the route. by no stretch of the imagination am i implying im 100% right but as i see it that is the potential.
Andy
Hook Shot my apologies! i wasn't having a dig. the target is my expectation kind of a road map of things to come if i know where im going i can plan the route. by no stretch of the imagination am i implying im 100% right but as i see it that is the potential.
Andy
andycan
Established member
- Messages
- 630
- Likes
- 28
dont sell yourself short !!!
i know a couple of fund managers some big traders from the pit in Chicago
all i can tell you and this was told to me by word of mouth most managed funds under perform the sp500 (how true that is i dont know but knowing a couple of them i truly believe it)
i know a couple of fund managers some big traders from the pit in Chicago
all i can tell you and this was told to me by word of mouth most managed funds under perform the sp500 (how true that is i dont know but knowing a couple of them i truly believe it)
andycan
Established member
- Messages
- 630
- Likes
- 28
the futures price of crude is not a reflection of demand and supply
index funds and the oil barons have run it up
the index funds have more money than brain cells they showed this last year in the grains markets in the USA soybeans had a massive carryover and had overproduced this would have made soybeans drop what did it do it rallied like they were trying to buy the last soybean in production
Andy
index funds and the oil barons have run it up
the index funds have more money than brain cells they showed this last year in the grains markets in the USA soybeans had a massive carryover and had overproduced this would have made soybeans drop what did it do it rallied like they were trying to buy the last soybean in production
Andy
Similar threads
