ok I have to go to a meeting ....
if I was able to trade/scalp today I would now be on USDCAD at this moment
USD has some serious bull legs on it at the moment ....nice !
N
keep it coming NVP....good stuff.
just some talmbing thoughts if i may....
Sometimes i looks at the indy and see a divergence, then goto the actual pair chart to look for a trade and see it looks like a "late entry" on the PA....e.g. The best time to enter has already gone.
There is nothing in indy to suggest that the current direction/s of the pair will not change at any moment - the indy tells us "what is happening and what has happened" - e.g it is as laggy as a MA.
What i'm trying to say is this thread looks at trades going away from the 0 (i think...heheh), but why not trade on them snapping back to the 0, as this is surely what will happen (e.g the 0 or MA we could call it, is like an elastic band).
m
amazing info....thanks loads!!!!
jees such a shame I was busy earlier
A/U was 100 pips in last 2 hours ...........even if I had bagged half of them thats a good days scalping
hour -2 would have been a reaction trade though as god knows what happened re AUD.....it wasnt business hours was it ?
N
keep it coming NVP....good stuff.
just some rambling thoughts if i may....
Sometimes it looks at the indy and see a divergence, then goto the actual pair chart to look for a trade and see it looks like a "late entry" on the PA....e.g. The best time to enter has already gone.
There is nothing in indy to suggest that the current direction/s of the pair will not change at any moment - the indy tells us "what is happening and what has happened" - e.g it is as laggy as a MA.
What i'm trying to say is this thread looks at trades going away from the 0 (i think...heheh), but why not trade on them snapping back to the 0, as this is surely what will happen (e.g the 0 or MA we could call it, is like an elastic band).
m
A big part of that move, around 90 pips, took place in less than 3 minutes. Man it was quick! RBA governor Stevens announced 0.85 as a more realistic level that they were targeting as an exchange rate.
Most national banks say that they are unconcerned with specific exchange rates, so for the RBA to specifically say they wanted 0.85 is quite unusual.
Anyway, you would have to have been quick to profit from that initial move, but over the next few hours AUD did weaken considerably further. AUD is definitely a medium term sell at the moment...
Expensive in financing though, if you hold the trade open for anything length of time.
My own personal take on that is, it can work, but you have to be planning the trade carefully. If you use both short term and long term strength meters, and they match up, they I wouldn't try and play against it. That is, if the long term is weak (for a particular currency), and the short term is also weak, then when it strengthens in the short term, I wouldn't be inclined to buy it.
However, if that situations occurs, and the short term strength does remain, then you end up with opposite strength/weakness, such as longer term weakness, and shorter term strength. Then yes, when the short term strengths turns over and heads back down, that can be a good play.
JPY and AUD are good for that at the moment. Longer term weakness, but they do have shorter periods when they strengthen periodically and could provide good entry points.
You can gauge your longer term strength by either using a longer period (50/100/200/500) on the same chart, or move to a longer timeframe, what ever you prefer.
J
last call as I have to go
if I was a betting man I would be buying the AUD and the NZD into USD from 9am ......certainly any scalps above that line drawn on the A/U chart if it falls back...
but watch the hourly to get the steers
good hunting
N