Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

Ok let's make some house cleaning
I've some free time 'cos this is a no trading and no job period for me
I've read the last 5 pages of this thread

--about your good q,yes I trade manually and put some trailing stop when I can't baby sit my trade. Sadly I've a very demanding job..Money management depends from Basket Size and timeframe,roughly it's a 200 pips b\e with a 30-50% trailing profit setup.

--Very good observations about the DJ correlation with USD\JPY, well done

--about my reputation here on T2W,rookie with only 22 posts,I love this Forum but I'm more active and well known on another popular ForexForum. And I prefer to trade rather than writing ,you know what I mean bro

--and again very interesting reading about trading lower TFs with your indi,I 've made some naked trades in the past when I was bored with my Basket trading,and I can testify that it is a good tool if properly managed

I still have to explore your Gold Variation,while I think I' ll pass the ball about Exotic pairs..

hey SF

let me know who you are on FF and I will take a look...sorry I havnt been back to you yet but I took a lot of family away over xmas and new year and could only really steal time to do the basics so will catchup now this week on stuff...

totally understand your comments and views.......this year I will certainly be trading more and commenting less as time is money to me as well.....

and basket systems are dynamite in the right hands.....:smart:

talk soon
N

 

[NVP]

hey hey everyone....

well well..the USA is saved in the last and darkest hour....and all is well in the world ?

Yeah right........boy are we Gonna have a great year ahead !

I am going to spend less time here in 2013 as I need to spend more time on my own trading activities....but will back it up with a Daily based trading system to be presented here that I hope will be of interest to people and hopefully deliver a few pips in 2013 ........

more news on that when I get there........
N

 

[NVP]

Yeah, happy holidays and green pips to all in 2013.

G.

hey G

Good to talk and I appreciate your best wishes here......

I dont need to wish you a successful 2013 as I know you will deliver good profits based around the excellent systems you run :smart:

we will no doubt catch up soon in 2013.....especially if I need your assistance and advice

N

 

[NVP]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...0-covel-free-download-book-3.html#post2045596

I think covells books are back for free here

i'm not endorsing them but it is essential to absorb as much about trading as possible on your trading journey............and then make up your minds

free is good value for trading information........

N

 

[NVP]

mornin all......

i'm not to fussed about trading this week to be honest........sure the Cliff is providing some excitement but I need a week or so of market activity after holidays to settle things down for me

feel free to post here if any questions or things you are looking at regarding Strengthmeters....

N

 

[NVP]

hey all.......

well heres the FXcorrelator on a Daily 20ma delta 3 setting ......the Dow is on a 20 sma

this gives me a focus on the BIGGER picture for the G8 currencies and the general bias to trade

Look at the Yen .............buried without trace since Mid Nov....Jees its the only currency Below the Zero....thats incredible bearish behaviour .......!

the Dow Rally on the "tepid" cliff agreement has stalled around 13,380's .......to me even thats to high given what happens next ........which will be the realisation of how poor Q4 performance was and is gonna be a tough tough year regardless of money printing in USA inc......

i'm looking for a Dip now on the Dow and some nice moves up on the USD...........and perhaps the Yen will rally if Abe lets it .......(doubtful)

so today / tomorrow I do see traders taking the dow money offered this week so I will be playing the Dow sells and buying USD into whatever gets dumped

thats my game plan
N

 

[NVP]

and yes ............the USD and Yen have already been performing nicely today already with minimal Dow drift

See chart - 15m TF on the default normalised 20ma delta 1 setting

so if the Dow breach goes below that 13.350-60 level it will get even better ....

N

 

[NVP]

patiently waiting for another bite at Buying yen and USD on 15mins.........

the earlier trade was real nice

patience.......it will come .....we need the Dow to tumble

N

 

[swissforex]

patiently waiting for another bite at Buying yen and USD on 15mins.........

the earlier trade was real nice

patience.......it will come .....we need the Dow to tumble

N

as I can see most of the posts on this thread are from you NVP,and that's fine 'cos you 're the author of the indi,the sys and the thread itself
I'm still thinkin' how I could contribute to the development of the discussion

btw,no live trades for me this week but I've "banked" +1000 demo profit with my Basket system.

And your FxCorrelator can be used to trade the Currency indexes as well.

and I've learnt to draw trendlines on your indi some months ago,it can be traded just like a standard RSI.

so I have suggested 3 potential trading systems in a single post
maybe I've just made my contribution??

 

[NVP]

as I can see most of the posts on this thread are from you NVP,and that's fine 'cos you 're the author of the indi,the sys and the thread itself
I'm still thinkin' how I could contribute to the development of the discussion

btw,no live trades for me this week but I've "banked" +1000 demo profit with my Basket system.

And your FxCorrelator can be used to trade the Currency indexes as well.

and I've learnt to draw trendlines on your indi some months ago,it can be traded just like a standard RSI.

so I have suggested 3 potential trading systems in a single post
maybe I've just made my contribution??

Hey SF......no worries here from me .....youre preaching to the converted and we are on the same page in many many ways so dont worry to much about more contributions ..

I do have an RSI version of the FXCorrelator somewhere if people are interested .........but it is in the dark archives somewhere

let me know if anyone wants it :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

patiently waiting for another bite at Buying yen and USD on 15mins.........

the earlier trade was real nice

patience.......it will come .....we need the Dow to tumble

N

better late than never - last night we finally got the Dow to fall......and since the Yen and USD had demonstrated minimum appetite to fall previous to this event it was always going to be a safe trade.....

remember my rules are :-

yen and USD on same side of the (Zero) 20ma setting
and the Dow on opposite side of its 20ma to the yen and Dow

BUT ...and heres the BUT.....in my private trading I read and watch the Dow much more subjectively than this and I am watching RELATIONSHIPS between the currencies and the dow etc etc ............. sorry but thats the truth......a pure mechanical system is effective but I can gain a lot more pips by using my eye and experience ..........

so in this instance I saw that the USD and Yen were not falling as the Dow got to the 13,400 levels.......so guess what ?....when the Dow finally stalled on that "X" area and the yen came up above the zero it was a no brainer trade signal.......an opportunity to buy usd and Yen against whatever was selling :smart:

I have tried a few times to programme my subjective signals book into code form but so far not 100% sucessfully ........programmers hate me and pull out their hair..........thats why trading is so fascinating and whilst can be sucessful when programmed as 100% mechanistic......I believe the trader can always still add more profit from subjective experience and ability

N

 

[NVP]

ok where am i looking now ?

well on the left chart is a 20/3 setting 4h .......I really am sceptical of Dow getting bigger today .....theres plenty of soft shorts there and if any traders caught the big moves then they would be insane not to be locked tight today


The USD is Strong off the fiscal cliff decision as well.......so we have strong Dow & strong USD which wont last .......expecially on short Term TF's

so i am hunting more opps to buy USD and ESPECIALLY YEN today ........look at the Yen .......mr ABE cant hit it during London session so its vunerable to buys .....

so we await Dow falls on the left chart (15ms) and go into buys on USD and Yen selling whatever offers itself .......preferably Euro or GBP ...

later
N

 

[NVP]

i see a lot of people on my thread .....welcome anyone who is new .........use the bottom signature area to look at my post links and ask any questions here ...I wont bite !

and if you get time read the thread from front to back especially if you are a newbie........its got a lot of stuff in here that may be useful as we discuss a lot of areas along the way which is not in the Signature links below

N

 

[NVP]

well here was the first hit of the day ..................

USD was weak move up but Yen did bounce well.........

damn AUD was the main beneficiary of the sell opportunities........but i'm not really interested in the AUD as its a passive trade now with the boys down under outside business hours technically

I want the active "live" currencies to be the prime movers such as Euro and GBP.....

such is life
N

 

[NVP]

damn AUD still coming south ...........GBP now starting to tumble as well

 

[Itshamish]

Good morning, NVP and a Happy and peaceful, prosperous New Year to you and all other readers of this gold-mine thread.

As we get back into the swing of things, I thought I might encourage a bit of a debate. You mentioned 'subjective' and technical indicators in almost the same sentence. So let me light a fuze. I do not support the theory that techniques used for "technical" analysis of stocks are in anyway applicable to FX!

Heretical, maybe, but "chacun a son gout", or, "In matters of taste, there is no dispute." I support my point with the observation that the vast majority all books, and seminars, and threads, and 'courses' and pundit-spouters concentrate on, for example, sma's and ema's or derivatives thereof. How many people know the ema was designed in the days before pocket calculators, to track the possible course of enemy submarines? Strange but true.

Also, can it be any coincidence that all the same sources mentioned espouse 'technical' analysis and yet 70- 80% of all small speculators (as opposed to Commercials/Non-Commercials in CoT terms) are thought to fail? Lack of discipline (psychological factors) and ignorance (of risk and money management) are certainly to blame. But perhaps we might as well do our technical analysis and apply our 'conclusion' in reverse? How's that for a 'new' technical indicator? Irony intended.

So it's all about price action - and that is the kernel of correlation and, perhaps, why one doesn't see very much written about it - in the main and present source excepted.

To continue my drift, I wonder... currencies are basically valued against interest rates. correct? The US bond market is the largest market in the world after FX as measured by turnover (ie cash). By comparison equity is a shrimp alongside a whale.

I am just thinking, a humble thought, no stepping on any toes, why not correlate currencies and US Treasuries? Is it because "central" banks and the Fed (neither federal, nor a reserve, nor a 'bank') clearly rig the rates - and therefore the currency markets as well. As GB Shaw declared, "The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those who have not got it" Literally, "got it", too, in to-day's manner of speaking.

Is it even possible?

Would it be the ultimate "funny-mental" perhaps?

Oh well, just musing before the announcement of the ultimate FX market 'joke', the funniest of all funnymentals, the Non-Farm Pisstake.

Trade canny,

Hamish.

 

[NVP]

usd is unstoppable at the moment ........some nice recent action on the moves I was hunting

 

[NVP]

Good morning, NVP and a Happy and peaceful, prosperous New Year to you and all other readers of this gold-mine thread.

As we get back into the swing of things, I thought I might encourage a bit of a debate. You mentioned 'subjective' and technical indicators in almost the same sentence. So let me light a fuze. I do not support the theory that techniques used for "technical" analysis of stocks are in anyway applicable to FX!

Heretical, maybe, but "chacun a son gout", or, "In matters of taste, there is no dispute." I support my point with the observation that the vast majority all books, and seminars, and threads, and 'courses' and pundit-spouters concentrate on, for example, sma's and ema's or derivatives thereof. How many people know the ema was designed in the days before pocket calculators, to track the possible course of enemy submarines? Strange but true.

Also, can it be any coincidence that all the same sources mentioned espouse 'technical' analysis and yet 70- 80% of all small speculators (as opposed to Commercials/Non-Commercials in CoT terms) are thought to fail? Lack of discipline (psychological factors) and ignorance (of risk and money management) are certainly to blame. But perhaps we might as well do our technical analysis and apply our 'conclusion' in reverse? How's that for a 'new' technical indicator? Irony intended.

So it's all about price action - and that is the kernel of correlation and, perhaps, why one doesn't see very much written about it - in the main and present source excepted.

To continue my drift, I wonder... currencies are basically valued against interest rates. correct? The US bond market is the largest market in the world after FX as measured by turnover (ie cash). By comparison equity is a shrimp alongside a whale.

I am just thinking, a humble thought, no stepping on any toes, why not correlate currencies and US Treasuries? Is it because "central" banks and the Fed (neither federal, nor a reserve, nor a 'bank') clearly rig the rates - and therefore the currency markets as well. As GB Shaw declared, "The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those who have not got it" Literally, "got it", too, in to-day's manner of speaking.

Is it even possible?

Would it be the ultimate "funny-mental" perhaps?

Oh well, just musing before the announcement of the ultimate FX market 'joke', the funniest of all funnymentals, the Non-Farm Pisstake.

Trade canny,

Hamish.

Some interesting points H........and happy new year !

Personally I have made a news years resolution to ditch a lot of my complexity and go as simple as possible..........difficult given the baggage I have accumulated over the years but time will tell.......

and yes - I agree at the end of the day all we have is price as a guide in the markets.....the rest is Noise........although I do have to naturally soften this slightly by my fondness for applying strengthmeter technology to identify price on my G8 individual currencies

I also think everyone should walk as many paths as possible though before making decisions on style and strategy .......but for me simplicity is now very core to what I do privately .........

and regarding the thousands of experts & commentators out there - I listen to very few these days as it really is all noise and mere attempts to sell products and services ............if they could make serious money trading they would not be spouting endless drivel through the multitude of communication channels this planet now sadly provides (more noise)

the perfect mentor is one you track down through research and networking and who is not "known" on the circuit...........then wear them down regarding learning what they do and listen for any pearls that are shared ........ i've been lucky a few times in the last 10 years with some awesome mentors and hope for more opportunities in the future......but one rule I would recommend is take the trouble to be educated first in at least all the rudiments of trading ..........as consider it if someone approached you with no idea at all and asked for help...........show you have put the effort in yourself first before bothering someone Good......

horses for courses :smart:
N

 

[memelissascott]

Don't waste your money on any of these courses. They are all a waste of money.

 

[NVP]

Don't waste your money on any of these courses. They are all a waste of money.

agreed............a broad Trading education is freely available through the many many Free forums and newsletters and free websites that traders provide

then make your own mind up what path to follow ........:smart:

N