Aside from the jokes .....its great to step back from the forex coalface sometimes and consolidate thoughts .......and read a few books i've been promising myself on business and trading
I seemed to end up reading a lot about probability, extreme events , forecasting and crisis management ..........an interesting set of bedfellows.......
not all of these are immediately useful in trading but many of the books took examples from market meltdowns re Lehman and AIG etc etc
in summary i learnt that
keep it simple............sure life is complex but try to keep it simple .....
why ?.............because simplicity limits damage in bad times and allows you to optimise results in the good times ...........
simplicity reduces decision /reaction time and gets you in front of the markets and the opposition.......it allows you and your team to know what to do instead of reading the 1,000 page rule book (which may be wrong anyway)
also........
1) you cannot predict the future but you can create scenarios and models that anticipate and react to what actually happens .........
2) you can never ever prepare adequately for those extreme and ultra low probability events ...........and most safety measures will woefully fail due to unpredictable chain event sequencing / factors (markets,oil rigs , nuclear power plants)........but good maintenance and training can at least give you a fighting chance.......and some simple rules to handle them
3) always be seeking new information and input across all areas and horizons to optimise your planning and forecasting techniques...................you must anticipate and plan for the future to keep your business alive and profitable
4) nurture and cultivate the information flowing from your front line troops and managers and customers as they truly know the world ..............if possible give them authority to make decisions as well ........ managers sitting in ivory towers know very little ......and will make wrong decisions.... or at least take correct ones too late .......
5) Adapt , learn , reforecast , correct any errors and wrong decisions quickly and move on ............otherwise you are history......
as they say in poker games .........if you have not figured out the "patsie" at the table after a few hands ....you are the patsie....get the hell out before they take the shirt off your back !! :smart:
N
