Concept FX

[timaru69]

Hi Timaru

have you by any chance inputed the Concept Trades with their starting Bank of 3K and simply re-invested 5% per trade to date...would be interesteing to see how that pans out?

Hi Sean

No I haven't done that, if I get time I might have a look, don't think it tells you much apart from maybe validating their results which are hypothetical anyway.

I was interested in the drawdown stats as I did a similar exercise with their tradewin strat on equities and indicies which i believe was based on a standard set of indicators that had been optimised against a 3+ years of data (I think)

That system had at least 50% drawdown when I did the intial review of it and it sounds like it has finally fallen over as the bull run in the markets ended.

The real test of systems is if they hold up under a variety of market conditions, I am very interested to see if Concept FX will still be valid in six months time.

One thing that would worry me is that it apppears to take no account of current market volatility , which in turn will screw up position sizing and risk management.

The main thing that worries me is why sell a "successful" system, why not trade yourself ? No system vendor has ever given an "honest" answer to this. If the guys came out and said that selling systems is less riskier than taking the trades then I might be more ready to believe them.

I am about halfway through reading this thread so I don't know how things are going with the guy/s who are posting their results.

Good Luck

T

 

[SandyW]

Well that didn't go very well did it?

Phil

Seeing that they were both in obvious downtrend I went short on both before the Concept triggers were hit. Have not taken the Concept gambles (that's what they were let's face it) and am still short! Should have done it even earlier. Just starting to wonder if Concept isn't actually a distraction!? Such heresy. However a trade isn't over until it's over and you have an outcome, so no counting chickens.

 

[bigphil22]

Seeing that they were both in obvious downtrend I went short on both before the Concept triggers were hit. Have not taken the Concept gambles (that's what they were let's face it) and am still short! Should have done it even earlier. Just starting to wonder if Concept isn't actually a distraction!? Such heresy. However a trade isn't over until it's over and you have an outcome, so no counting chickens.

Just got home and have just seen that both the concept trades stopped out for a full loss.

I agree re the trend, I also thought about going short, but reasoned that "that would just be a gamble" Woe is me that I didn't I'd have probably come out close to even.

Is anyone keeping count of the loosing trades?

Phil

 

[sean uk]

Hi Sandy...well done on the shorts...worked out really well...I would have ommited the eur/usd long apart from an insider telling me there were large buys waiting at same point as Concept was entered...so you've done well...but there are a lot of unhappy bankers around believe me...
On the eur/chf i got out at breakeven as had moved the stop...but I also went long gbp and lost out on that so bad day for me...good for you though...proves simple approach is best...trend is our friend and all that...

 

[wilmer55]

For information, I entered Concept with my first trade on the 24th July with the losing trade of EURGBP since that point Concept is down (including the 2 disasters yesterday) 697 pips. They have had 14 trades since that trade with 11 losers and 3 wins. The last 4 losers have stopped out within the day of opening. Bank is down 46%.

I went into this stating that I would follow the signals religously which I have said previously and have done. However, I am going to have to follow Sandy's route now and not go against such strong trends.

Scanjet it is worth noting that I asked the question of Concept refence volatility and stop losses and system and as of yet their silence is deafening.

Fortunately I have been using Sniper and have more than covered my losses but am not growing at the rate I had expected.

I recognise that we can all lose our banks but when something is so obviously not working you think that they would revisit and see how a change in parameters could improve their performance over the last month as I am sure the market is not about to quieten down.

Vented, thank you for reading.

Hi Sean

No I haven't done that, if I get time I might have a look, don't think it tells you much apart from maybe validating their results which are hypothetical anyway.

I was interested in the drawdown stats as I did a similar exercise with their tradewin strat on equities and indicies which i believe was based on a standard set of indicators that had been optimised against a 3+ years of data (I think)

That system had at least 50% drawdown when I did the intial review of it and it sounds like it has finally fallen over as the bull run in the markets ended.

The real test of systems is if they hold up under a variety of market conditions, I am very interested to see if Concept FX will still be valid in six months time.

One thing that would worry me is that it apppears to take no account of current market volatility , which in turn will screw up position sizing and risk management.

The main thing that worries me is why sell a "successful" system, why not trade yourself ? No system vendor has ever given an "honest" answer to this. If the guys came out and said that selling systems is less riskier than taking the trades then I might be more ready to believe them.

I am about halfway through reading this thread so I don't know how things are going with the guy/s who are posting their results.

Good Luck

T

 

[sean uk]

Just emailed this on to concept...i will copy in their reply if i get one...i expect scanjet et al are now laughing at us saying ...did we mention the word scam??

Hello Concept Team

as a new member of the succcesful marketing campaign to purchase Concept, I have to say that I am not impressed with software that is incapable of reading current trends. Why are we constantly being put into trades when there are strong trends in the opposite direction. Fine if we are in a range bound market and we are trading the swings but as you know we are not. I was sold on the idea that this was designed for a professional trader and that you yourselves trade using this system. Can you tell me why there is no one overiding such bizzare trades.
I bought this system based on the great marketing of the site. I have also been in touch through a good number of users on the Trade2Win forum, where Concept users exchange experiences with the system.
The one thing which is very clear is the lack of after sales guidancere. The current state of affairs and why either the software has not been re-programmed to see obvious trends or why there is no human intervention to stop those trades from coming up on the programme.
One trader told me he's used the system religiously since purchase on the 24th July this year with the losing trade of EURGBP since that point Concept is down (including the 2 disasters yesterday) 697 pips. They have had 14 trades since that trade with 11 losers and 3 wins. The last 4 losers have stopped out within the day of opening. Bank is down 46%.
I think you as a company should address this issue and email all users so as not to do your reputationn any more harm.
It is common knowledge that your previous system for stock purchases worked well, but like all systems could not cope when the market conditions changed.

I look forward to your prompt reply.

Sean Anderson

 

[Scanjet]

I can assure everyone I am not laughing. I have little doubt that Concept will perform well for you when conditions equate to those previously. At present they don't.

 

[timaru69]

Eh

I can assure everyone I am not laughing. I have little doubt that Concept will perform well for you when conditions equate to those previously. At present they don't.

Hi all

Out of curiousity I had a look at a few GBP/USD signals as posted on their resulst table from June to May.

The earlier signals seem to be based on prior support and resistance but the last two signals I am struggling to see the logic based on entry (assuming prior support/resistance) obviously there is more to it but having looked at some of the recent trades I can understand why people are concerned. Unfortunately with mechanical systems you will get signals that from another perspective look just plain wrong.

Of course hindsight is a wonderful thing.

From my spreadsheet you can see that that this system has suffered 40%+ drawdown beforeand drawdowns of 20% to 30% are also common.

Perhaps 5% risk a trade is unrealistic for such a system?. I cant get my head around the concept of always risking 5% of the original Bank even if the bank falls below starting level.

a 45% drawdown on a 10K Bank is 4500, therefore you £500 risk for your next trade is 9%of your bank, surely if your Bank is going down you must restate your 5% to the the new bank level. Forget what you started with look at what you have.

Educate me

Cheers

T

 

[anddy26]

systems are like cars and computers.they are great when they are working...i suspect sean you will get a very measured response by which they will say this is a very difficult period and we have been a tad unlucky as there was 3 great trades that we missed out on which would have left our banks up!

i myself have encouraged others to buy this sytem and once it settles down will keep on encouraging as i do see how they operate ( but i still blindly put on their trades) becuase i doubt my own abilities as a trader.

i was lucky enough to start at a good run .i am now down with concept. I do feel for u guys who have got in at a bad run..im feeling a tad agrieved too but will stick to it

 

[SandyW]

As you may realise I am not one of the great sceptics, but I may yet become one.

For what it's worth, here is my exchange with Concept after the first two disaster trades and before the last two:

To: Concept-FX Sent: Wednesday, September 03, 2008 7:06 AM

Subject: Cable etc

Hi Neil,

Since 25 July say, Cable has been in free fall, but Concept-FX simply hasn't noticed. Thereby missing a fantastic trade! In fact in this same period it gave us full losses on two failed long trades on Cable instead. Furthermore we have recently been suffering losses on other pairs, the last two of which have been instantaneous, so it's not as if it were a swings and roundabouts situation. Would it be fair to say this exposes a serious flaw in the Concept algorithm? regards,Sandy

Hi Sandy,

With the benefit of hindsight then of course things seem perfectly obvious but in reality things are different. On both occasions there were sound technical reasons for entering the trades based on strong levels of historical support. 'Instantaneous' losses happen, particularly on a volatile and fast market like the FX. When you swing trade (Trading off critical levels of support), the market either bounces off these levels or penetrates them and so we get stopped out. - If I'm to take a loss, I would rather it be instantaneous, than a prolonged, 5 day trade! Neither are good but the former is the better of the two. In addition, I think you have to take into consideration our recent bout of bad luck. A number of losing trades crashed out by result of numerous news items affecting the market. The recent EUR/JPY trade was within touching distance of a decent profit target but only hours later shot down to the stop loss. A profit was taken but it could of been much better. And had we hit our profit target, some of the recent loses would of been counter balanced. Coming off the back of a very profitable period, a run of loses while disappointing is hardly a crisis. And at this stage it's rather short sighted to be questioning the algorithms. I think it's sensible to see how things go and if this run continues for a pro-longed period of time then perhaps your point may have some credence. Best regards, Jeran

My comment on this is:

Not a crisis for the Concept people, our money is in their bank nice and safe. Also the losses may be easily tolerable for those who were in at the start, and built up their accounts but, as this thread shows, it is a crisis for those whose bank has dropped by around 50% in 5 or 6 weeks.

Jeran may prefer his losses quick and dirty, but I like mine to be a little slower so that I can manage them!

I didn't think I was buying into a system which only did range trading and reversals, and you can see in the historical results, and in the fact that some trades open with a stop, that it is not intended to be limited to ranges and reversals. In the past it has actually followed some trends very successfully, albeit sometimes giving back a ridiculous amout of profit because of a poor exit strategy.

So the response from Jeran is not really adequate. I did say myself somewhere back on this thread that if the performance could dramatically improve over the past as it certainly did for the first part of 2008, that it could equally well reverse as dramatically and that if it did there would be some very unhappy traders (or words to that effect). So here we are, unhappy traders. As scanjet says, it does seem to depend on the market, not on Concept.

What we need is to be able to depend on Concept to handle the market, not use the market as an excuse. Let's face it the marketing earlier this year did not give the credit to the market but claimed it for Concept. Now that the boot is on the other foot it seems to be nothing to do with the Concept algorithm. Just bad luck or something. Luck is for gamblers.

As I said earlier Concept seems at present to be an obstacle to intelligent trading.

I hope I will be eating my words for the rest of the year, but I doubt it. And in any event my confidence in the system despite all my promises to myself has evaporated by say 99%, not just 50%.

The guys at Concept are not "bad people" or scammers, but they certainly don't have what it takes, especially given their price. BTW I was a Tradewin user, so I have been here before, more fool me. Never again.

 

[wilmer55]

Sandy, in one piece you either sent me or was posted here you alluded to an average profit of between 1.5% and 2.65% per trade from historical concept data. Running that over my current positon if we were to average 1.5% profit per trade I will not get back to break even for another 46 trades and if we average 2.65% I will be in a break even position in 24 trades time. Based on an average of 7 trades a month I can expect to break even sometime between December and March. However, if Concept continue to deliver the same strategy i will be out by the end of this month or the beginning of October.

As you may realise I am not one of the great sceptics, but I may yet become one.

For what it's worth, here is my exchange with Concept after the first two disaster trades and before the last two:

To: Concept-FX Sent: Wednesday, September 03, 2008 7:06 AM

Subject: Cable etc

Hi Neil,

Since 25 July say, Cable has been in free fall, but Concept-FX simply hasn't noticed. Thereby missing a fantastic trade! In fact in this same period it gave us full losses on two failed long trades on Cable instead. Furthermore we have recently been suffering losses on other pairs, the last two of which have been instantaneous, so it's not as if it were a swings and roundabouts situation. Would it be fair to say this exposes a serious flaw in the Concept algorithm? regards,Sandy

Hi Sandy,

With the benefit of hindsight then of course things seem perfectly obvious but in reality things are different. On both occasions there were sound technical reasons for entering the trades based on strong levels of historical support. 'Instantaneous' losses happen, particularly on a volatile and fast market like the FX. When you swing trade (Trading off critical levels of support), the market either bounces off these levels or penetrates them and so we get stopped out. - If I'm to take a loss, I would rather it be instantaneous, than a prolonged, 5 day trade! Neither are good but the former is the better of the two. In addition, I think you have to take into consideration our recent bout of bad luck. A number of losing trades crashed out by result of numerous news items affecting the market. The recent EUR/JPY trade was within touching distance of a decent profit target but only hours later shot down to the stop loss. A profit was taken but it could of been much better. And had we hit our profit target, some of the recent loses would of been counter balanced. Coming off the back of a very profitable period, a run of loses while disappointing is hardly a crisis. And at this stage it's rather short sighted to be questioning the algorithms. I think it's sensible to see how things go and if this run continues for a pro-longed period of time then perhaps your point may have some credence. Best regards, Jeran

My comment on this is:

Not a crisis for the Concept people, our money is in their bank nice and safe. Also the losses may be easily tolerable for those who were in at the start, and built up their accounts but, as this thread shows, it is a crisis for those whose bank has dropped by around 50% in 5 or 6 weeks.

Jeran may prefer his losses quick and dirty, but I like mine to be a little slower so that I can manage them!

I didn't think I was buying into a system which only did range trading and reversals, and you can see in the historical results, and in the fact that some trades open with a stop, that it is not intended to be limited to ranges and reversals. In the past it has actually followed some trends very successfully, albeit sometimes giving back a ridiculous amout of profit because of a poor exit strategy.

So the response from Jeran is not really adequate. I did say myself somewhere back on this thread that if the performance could dramatically improve over the past as it certainly did for the first part of 2008, that it could equally well reverse as dramatically and that if it did there would be some very unhappy traders (or words to that effect). So here we are, unhappy traders. As scanjet says, it does seem to depend on the market, not on Concept.

What we need is to be able to depend on Concept to handle the market, not use the market as an excuse. Let's face it the marketing earlier this year did not give the credit to the market but claimed it for Concept. Now that the boot is on the other foot it seems to be nothing to do with the Concept algorithm. Just bad luck or something. Luck is for gamblers.

As I said earlier Concept seems at present to be an obstacle to intelligent trading.

I hope I will be eating my words for the rest of the year, but I doubt it. And in any event my confidence in the system despite all my promises to myself has evaporated by say 99%, not just 50%.

The guys at Concept are not "bad people" or scammers, but they certainly don't have what it takes, especially given their price. BTW I was a Tradewin user, so I have been here before, more fool me. Never again.

 

[timaru69]

Observations

Hi Sandy,

............On both occasions there were sound technical reasons for entering the trades based on strong levels of historical support......................

But surely you wait for confirmation not just enter a trade cause it has hit a price, this suggests to me that's what they are doing i.e define previous support resistance and go short/long at that price regardless of what market is doing , good examples are last two Long trades in cable on 8 & 15th August. Unfortunatelt the strength of a mechanical system is also it's weakness.

.............When you swing trade (Trading off critical levels of support), the market either bounces off these levels or penetrates them and so we get stopped out.............. doesn't mean you have to take a tradeI ................................think you have to take into consideration our recent bout of bad luck. A number of losing trades crashed out by result of numerous news items affecting the marketthose damn news items eh, maybe shouldn't be trading around a news item?..................................... And at this stage it's rather short sighted to be questioning the algorithms. I think it's sensible to see how things go and if this run continues for a pro-longed period of time then perhaps your point may have some credence. Of course the fact that your bank is 0 is entirely your issue Best regards, Jeran

Enuff said..........

 

[Scanjet]

I wouldn't get too downhearted to be honest. Shed-loads of desperate financial news throughout the world causing volatility, and thus larger than normal ADRs, will play havoc with any system. If you have a 12 month membership perhaps you should just sit on the sidelines until the results show a sign of improvement? Taking loss after loss destroys confidence. If by sitting it out you see things going well then you will know the strategy is reasonably sound and things may not be as bad as the present results suggest. You can then re-enter with more confidence.
When I started this thread I wanted to know if this was a genuine trading system. It clearly is as members have confirmed the trades as listed to be accurate. It's just bad timing that trading conditions have changed so soon after launch.
Please feel free to shoot the messenger as always.

 

[anddy26]

bang..............lol

 

[timaru69]

I wouldn't get too downhearted to be honest. Shed-loads of desperate financial news throughout the world causing volatility, and thus larger than normal ADRs, will play havoc with any system. If you have a 12 month membership perhaps you should just sit on the sidelines until the results show a sign of improvement? Taking loss after loss destroys confidence. If by sitting it out you see things going well then you will know the strategy is reasonably sound and things may not be as bad as the present results suggest. You can then re-enter with more confidence.
When I started this thread I wanted to know if this was a genuine trading system. It clearly is as members have confirmed the trades as listed to be accurate. It's just bad timing that trading conditions have changed so soon after launch.
Please feel free to shoot the messenger as always.

Increased Volatility just means you adapt your trading to take advantage. To be fair looking at the recent calls on cable (and I am going over their posted results) some looked nice , good buy entries near lows etc however when markets are kicking up then some discretion needs to be utilised otherwise you end up trying to catch that falling knife, rather than wait for the bottom and a higher low.

11 losers with 3 winners recently must be biggest drawdown to date..............45% , you only have to look at the Hedge Fund news to see what that type of drawdown means to them. Even Richard Dennis the man who started the "turtles" also experienced the joy of blowing up funds with drawdowns of 50% or greater.

 

[SandyW]

.......If by sitting it out you see things going well then you will know the strategy is reasonably sound and things may not be as bad as the present results suggest. You can then re-enter with more confidence............Please feel free to shoot the messenger as always.

Scanjet,

Wise enough words. I am effectively sitting out now, as I will only take trades that look right in my opinion. Logically I suppose there is no point actually looking at the Concept signals at all, just do my own thing and check on the posted Concept results from time to time and say "if only!" or "glad I'm out of it!"

 

[sean uk]

As you might have read on an earlier post today I emailed Concept re: the problems with trending and the trades taken against obvious strong trends. He suggested I speak on the phone on Monday so if anybody has any specifics to ask, please post and I'll see what he has to say.

 

[timaru69]

some ideas

As you might have read on an earlier post today I emailed Concept re: the problems with trending and the trades taken against obvious strong trends. He suggested I speak on the phone on Monday so if anybody has any specifics to ask, please post and I'll see what he has to say.

1. Why are stops fixed at levels they are as opposed to underlying volatility

2. Are news days factored into the trading signals (non farm payroll's, interest rate announcements etc) i.e don't take signal on news day

3. Given you have paid for the product i think you have a right to know what drives the signals, if Support and Resistance then what confirmation rules are in place before signal generated, get hm to talk you through the cable trades in August for example.

4. What's to stop Concept FX going the same way as Tradewin (the other system?)

5. Assuming a 45% drawdown in account (historically worst drawdown) what are his recomendations with regard to % risk per trade? 5% of new balance?

6.er...............can i have my money back please

 

[masif1]

I bet they are going to read this thread and prepare answers for your questions.

Concpet needs human intervention, as mentioned before news affects trades so it might be a good idea to not be in a trade during news time.

Forex Forum, Forex Calendar, Forex News @ Forex Factory

As you might have read on an earlier post today I emailed Concept re: the problems with trending and the trades taken against obvious strong trends. He suggested I speak on the phone on Monday so if anybody has any specifics to ask, please post and I'll see what he has to say.

 

[Scanjet]

I would start by asking them if they all take all the trades themselves or if they prefer to leave trivialities like that to the members.
I think the problem with news is that there are literally thousands of these things each year - worry about all of them and you'll never trade again.... Having said that, I'm wary of anything red on forexfactory for any pair I'm in. The news announcements tend only to have a large effect on the day they appear but are likely to stop you out so I close 30mins beforehand. I don't like leaving trades overnight - especially longs, as any news is likely to be bad and take you out while you sleep.