Hi All,
First time post.
I decided to buy in to Concept FX without reference to this forum. I had previously bought into Tradewin last year. Believe it or not , although I signed up to Trade2Win some time ago, I did not read any relevant thread here before buying Concept FX. After I had bought it occurred to me that maybe someone on here would have started a thread!!! That's what I'm like.
In the first 3 months of using Tradewin I was definitely well in profit, and was projecting forward to the day I would be a millionaire (as you do). However I was plotting my trades against those posted on their website and found that my profits were only half as good. The problem was quite simply that alerts were triggering at any time of the trading day, and it simply was not possible, no matter how promptly I opened or closed trades, to catch the ever moving prices. So slippage was causing me big problems, and I also realised that in losing periods I would be very vulnerable, and I did eventually find that my bank was slowly wasting away, when the Tradewin record was still showing a profits coming in, albeit more modestly. So it was slippage that killed it for me. Also no assistance with money management, which was always rather a tortuous calculation to be done before sizing the trade. Overall it was a very disappointing experience, and I resigned myself to never being a millionaire.
Nevertheless, having met the guys at Tradewin, I had determined that they were pretty straight. There is a problem in dealing with any "Blackbox" merchants however, and that is you just do not know what is going on under the bonnet. Issues like curve fitting, rigging the record etc are just not open to discussion.
Then recently I got their email offering Concept FX. Of course I was very sceptical! However I did quite a comprehensive MS Excel analysis of the published "results", breaking down the record in various ways, and of course graphing the equity curves for each currency pair. And I reviewed a percenatge of the trades to check they stacked up, and that the supposed record matched up historically. This record is actually much more persuasive than the Tradewin system record, because the chance of any significant slippage is much much less. This is because all trades are opened and closed as Limit/Stop orders set in advance, and they must normally trigger the trades on the alert price.
My analysis showed that the win/loss ratio is almost exactly 50/50, but the losses are limited by the stop loss method, and the profits are allowed to run (by whatever method they use - I haven't yet sussed that out). The currency pair that has the ugliest equity curve is the EURJPY, and it also has a large majority of losing trades, and also many fewer triggered trades. This pair has overall shown a very good profit, but I would be inclined to not trade it on the system because the records shows a few huge profits in some trades are balanced by bad losing periods. If you were to only trade the EURJPY with this sytem, I think you would very likely get blown out by the draw downs.
I have seen that the profitability of the system is been very markedly improving with each year, not just because the stakes have been higher. The profitable trades have shown a marked improvement. Maybe just the market "personality", but maybe they are tweaking the system somehow. I would love some independant reassurance that the results were actually obtained using the system, but I have had to simply take it on trust.
Everything depends on the consistency of the alerts, and as it is a black box, there's nothing to do but either trust them or not buy in at all. And of course one has to trust that the system providers will not suddenly evaporate and leave one high and dry.
My first alert came in on 4 July, and others have followed. But none have as yet triggered an actual trade, and I am kicking my heels! Its driving me crazy, but hopefuly a trade will eventually trigger!
As a post script, I would just say that I am determined to stick rigidly to the system, both as regards the trade entry and exit levels, but also as regards the money management. I have been trading for 4 years now, using various and flexible "methodologies"and am very much out of pocket as a result of failing in both these respects! Also as a result of overtrading, and I think developing a rather damaging gambling mentality, with a low boredom threshold! In short I have been totally consistent only in the numerous and constant mistakes I have made! There is not a mistake I have not been guilty of repeatedly. Most people think I am a very intelligent man, but you would be right to suggest I am a fool, and should not be in this game at all! But please do not comment! I have already told myself everything that needs to be said.
What I need now is confidence in the entry/exit method, good money management and no overtrading. If the system helps me, it will be a big step forward. The big step back is that it makes me a "dependant trader" which is not attractive as a concept, but then my history shows that as an "independent trader" I have been a disaster!
So, this time it really has to work.
First time post.
I decided to buy in to Concept FX without reference to this forum. I had previously bought into Tradewin last year. Believe it or not , although I signed up to Trade2Win some time ago, I did not read any relevant thread here before buying Concept FX. After I had bought it occurred to me that maybe someone on here would have started a thread!!! That's what I'm like.
In the first 3 months of using Tradewin I was definitely well in profit, and was projecting forward to the day I would be a millionaire (as you do). However I was plotting my trades against those posted on their website and found that my profits were only half as good. The problem was quite simply that alerts were triggering at any time of the trading day, and it simply was not possible, no matter how promptly I opened or closed trades, to catch the ever moving prices. So slippage was causing me big problems, and I also realised that in losing periods I would be very vulnerable, and I did eventually find that my bank was slowly wasting away, when the Tradewin record was still showing a profits coming in, albeit more modestly. So it was slippage that killed it for me. Also no assistance with money management, which was always rather a tortuous calculation to be done before sizing the trade. Overall it was a very disappointing experience, and I resigned myself to never being a millionaire.
Nevertheless, having met the guys at Tradewin, I had determined that they were pretty straight. There is a problem in dealing with any "Blackbox" merchants however, and that is you just do not know what is going on under the bonnet. Issues like curve fitting, rigging the record etc are just not open to discussion.
Then recently I got their email offering Concept FX. Of course I was very sceptical! However I did quite a comprehensive MS Excel analysis of the published "results", breaking down the record in various ways, and of course graphing the equity curves for each currency pair. And I reviewed a percenatge of the trades to check they stacked up, and that the supposed record matched up historically. This record is actually much more persuasive than the Tradewin system record, because the chance of any significant slippage is much much less. This is because all trades are opened and closed as Limit/Stop orders set in advance, and they must normally trigger the trades on the alert price.
My analysis showed that the win/loss ratio is almost exactly 50/50, but the losses are limited by the stop loss method, and the profits are allowed to run (by whatever method they use - I haven't yet sussed that out). The currency pair that has the ugliest equity curve is the EURJPY, and it also has a large majority of losing trades, and also many fewer triggered trades. This pair has overall shown a very good profit, but I would be inclined to not trade it on the system because the records shows a few huge profits in some trades are balanced by bad losing periods. If you were to only trade the EURJPY with this sytem, I think you would very likely get blown out by the draw downs.
I have seen that the profitability of the system is been very markedly improving with each year, not just because the stakes have been higher. The profitable trades have shown a marked improvement. Maybe just the market "personality", but maybe they are tweaking the system somehow. I would love some independant reassurance that the results were actually obtained using the system, but I have had to simply take it on trust.
Everything depends on the consistency of the alerts, and as it is a black box, there's nothing to do but either trust them or not buy in at all. And of course one has to trust that the system providers will not suddenly evaporate and leave one high and dry.
My first alert came in on 4 July, and others have followed. But none have as yet triggered an actual trade, and I am kicking my heels! Its driving me crazy, but hopefuly a trade will eventually trigger!
As a post script, I would just say that I am determined to stick rigidly to the system, both as regards the trade entry and exit levels, but also as regards the money management. I have been trading for 4 years now, using various and flexible "methodologies"and am very much out of pocket as a result of failing in both these respects! Also as a result of overtrading, and I think developing a rather damaging gambling mentality, with a low boredom threshold! In short I have been totally consistent only in the numerous and constant mistakes I have made! There is not a mistake I have not been guilty of repeatedly. Most people think I am a very intelligent man, but you would be right to suggest I am a fool, and should not be in this game at all! But please do not comment! I have already told myself everything that needs to be said.
What I need now is confidence in the entry/exit method, good money management and no overtrading. If the system helps me, it will be a big step forward. The big step back is that it makes me a "dependant trader" which is not attractive as a concept, but then my history shows that as an "independent trader" I have been a disaster!
So, this time it really has to work.
now property is buggered trying to get more than 6% is a struggle, 
