Masquerade
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Man...you were bragging about making 1/2 pips a day trading with some insane leverage. The writing was on the wall. Nice run but something does need to change.
wiseambitions
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It strikes me that losing 60pc is like 2 months' profit. If it were a lower risk eg 40pc I have a strong conviction it would be an easier recovery and smoother equity curve. Accepting of course that 0.0 % risk is the smoothest equity curve but contains no opportunities for better.
Hotch
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The market.
P.S. where's the vendor tag? Not as if it wasn't obvious from the start, but I'll do my pboyles impression: http://s180group.webs.com/
Well, the trade from the 13th finally got stopped out. 
-48.8% for the month so far. One more full trading week left so I could get about 5 or 10% back.
Well, it should take about 2 months to get it back.
Yes, for those risking about 10%, I would increase the leverage now and could get it back in a week or two. I won't be increasing the risk because I am already risking 60% so I'll just ride it out for 3 months.
14-month winning streak wasn't too bad. Let's see if I can do it again.
-48.8% for the month so far. One more full trading week left so I could get about 5 or 10% back.Well, it should take about 2 months to get it back.
Yes, for those risking about 10%, I would increase the leverage now and could get it back in a week or two. I won't be increasing the risk because I am already risking 60% so I'll just ride it out for 3 months.
14-month winning streak wasn't too bad. Let's see if I can do it again.
Average has been about +50% a month so over the next few months, it may be back on tack and back in profit. -60% isn't bad if the system is inaccurate about once every 12 months.
Again, what I would do if I was leveraged just 10% per trade is increase the risk right after a bad trade and should get it back rather quickly. This will will take a little longer.
wiseambitions
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Average has been about +50% a month so over the next few months, it may be back on tack and back in profit. -60% isn't bad if the system is inaccurate about once every 12 months.
Again, what I would do if I was leveraged just 10% per trade is increase the risk right after a bad trade and should get it back rather quickly. This will will take a little longer.
Ok, you do talk a lot of sense, I'll give you that.
For a long time I said when FMT was performing properly that a good idea would be to analyse for a given setting over a significant period of let's say 6 months, how much the capital would have grown at incremental % risks per trade. Then to determine the % risk at which any 1 per cent more would result in the capital growing less well. Once that has been determined one could then make the decision to trade such a set at below the optimium % risk. Alas the market conditions changed, and FMT was getting less than 60pc win rate, and it was difficult for 6 months to roll up capital at all.
Nevertheless with your settings, and the likelihood of getting knocked out say three times a year, (is that a fair estimate, at your SL?), then it is possible the optimum risk is anywhere between 40 and 70pc, but the exposure to go with depends on the individual's tolerance to loss, and whether or not they would want to baby sit trades or be happy to let them take their course.
Glad you have not lost your nerve
Masquerade
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You mean like martingale?
BeginnerJoe
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To get back the money quickly, double the size of your bet. If it doesn't work, double again, etc, until you get back the money or the investors, erh, I mean friends and family run out of money. Losing 60% now is nothing considering the 2 million waiting to be picked up at the end of the rainbow.
1.5
College Fund, the $2M Goal System | Myfxbook
He has a negative Sharpe ratio now! Hahahaha. And his other account has .05.
lol. 60% account risk. anyone figured out that hes compounding? So stupid. This will always end in tears.
I tried to find the definition as to what you mean by martingale and found this.
It is a method of gambling in which one doubles the stakes after each loss.
More details I found here.
It isn't gambling as much as calculated risk where the odds are with me. However, I will only increase the risk for just a few trades to regain the loss and then lower it again. And, while everything is considered "risky" the chance of having 2 bad trades in a row, well is next to nothing. Just my opinion, of course.
Who is in tears? It's all part of the system. Depends on when one gets in but as I've said, if it goes for several months and then gets hit with a bad trade, it's still up a large percent. In this account, 49.2%. No tears here.
According to your horrible Sharpe ratios, the odds are not in your favor. Also, making some basic assumptions, your chances of failure per trade can be thought of as independent. Hence, it makes no sense to do something only momentarily, because if it is advantageous to do it for that moment, it should be advantageous to do it forever. Basically, raising the risk for a few trades possibly to recover some of your losses is just something your weak psychology needs to adjust itself to the loss. Unfortunately, the catharsis is just delusion: all you've done is made things even worse by putting more risk into your horrible trading system.
crazy...its not working so lets play roulette. Red will come in eventually if i keep betting on it, if i lose just keep doubling my bet. Why don't you just do this? It's a lot faster.
Masquerade
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Don't pull the "it's not gambling, it's calculated risk" crap on me. I've heard it all before. Your strategy is when you lose you go bigger on your next trades so you make the losses back fast. Is that a false statement or accurate?Out of interest....why are you taking so few pips? You had a trade where you made 30 pips and made just over $9 and then you have other trades where you take 2 pips and make $40. Are you just rapidly averaging positions as they go against you and then when you see a little bit of profit getting out?
