Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?

[cs00nnb]

Coffee

I have to agree on that! The long term chart speaks for itself.

In addition to coffee, I feel Corn is offering excellent value at current prices.

 

[bgold]

Sugar in 1970's-style inflation. Coffee next?


Most probably, I'd say.

Short-term, Coffee could correct basis the Weekly chart.

Then long-term, it looks poised to join the other high-flyers of the post-millenium inflationary debacle...

Even short term a bullish wave count can be identified!!

 

[TWI]

Suggests one should add to longs on break above the 125 area. Yesterdays close was pretty horible.

 

[TWI]

Today could get very messy in Arabicas after the morning action.

 

[minx]

Today could get very messy in Arabicas after the morning action.

Anyone know what caused the gaps lower in UK and NY Coffee?

 

[TWI]

Seems to be holding. Could be constructive if NY hold tonight.
This morning it was all spec selling in Robusta but roaster were on buy side which is encouraging.

 

[DaveT]

I'm LONG from 11890 May NY Coffee.

Got in a little early last week, but held through this week's dip (so far)and looking for resumption of the uptrend from here, or soon.

May closed 11785 today. Bullish Reversal.

 

[TWI]

I have to say that yesterdays Arabica action was very constructive. Our guy in Bzl say there is no roaster selling down here, they are strictly 125 scale up sellers if at all, everything is very hand to mouth and so roasters remain short going forward. We have a destinctly bullish outlook from the guys on the ground which is encouraging. I am back flat myself and will await confirmation of this support b4 dipping back in to the long side. In short the fundamentals seem to support the price action, unlike the grain upside that came to a nasty close yesterday. I stay away from those dogs for now apart from the bean oil scale which continues to be a nice earner , buying N6/X6 scale down and scale up selling W/C spread.

 

[oatman]

Our guy in Bzl say there is no roaster selling down here, they are strictly 125 scale up sellers if at all,

I think you mean origin selling?

 

[TWI]

Oatman, indeed I do, the roaster are buying this sh*t.
Here is a chart it is H6 but I trade K6. I re-enter here as low risk trade and look for neckline support or stop on break close.

 

[TWI]

Apparently there is a lot of roaster buying around 110 scale down but they are not currently prepared to pay up much more. In short there is definite and real underlying support from commercial and technically it is holding. Origin sellers emerge at 125 and roasters are at 110....Buy dips cos the roasters are ultimately going to need this sh*t.
I am still flat. Been busy in the mad metals and energies...what carnage there was today in Base.

 

[djnsfc]

March Coffee

We can still revisit the weekly trendline here at the 93-97 area but weeks lows could be in for now. Today(Friday) is FND so yesterday could have been flushing of Longs before FND and Monday is a holiday so watchout. I'd like to see prices settle before getting into this market.

 

[TWI]

There is astill a good story but agreed need to await some recovery before getting back in.

 

[TWI]

Well, over this week I have got back long. I will increase if this continues. The story is still good and unless we run into concerted origin selling I think this could be the start of good upside break. Roasters are still short for may. The guys in Bzl are all talking bullish so this is somewhat encouraging.

 

[bgold]

Bull in the make?

 

[TWI]

Well, I hope your charts are proved right. I may get the bolli out if that happens.

 

[DaveT]

Added to Longs the other day at 11400 (may)

1) Classic Ascending triangle on the daily.

2) Weekly chart (may continuous) shows Outside Week UP bar.

3) 9/18 Day MA crossover looks likely soon.


Compare this base with the December base (see boxed areas)

 

[samirkpatil]

Couple of days more for Coffee to surge up

Guys,

Don't be surprised with today's dip in Coffee. In my opinion Cofee will take couple of days more before making up move.

Negative things at the moment:
1. Stochastic pointing down. Should turn up in couple of days since MACD has crossed over to upside.
2. Daily Trend 25EMA (or 20EMA if you prefer that one) is still pointing slightly down and prices are struggling to cross on upside of 25EMA. But Weekly 25EMA is still holding up (flat actually but definitely not down). So Daily should turn up or atleast flat in couple of days.
3. Weekly MACD Histogram haven't ticked up. But it is above zero.
4. There is a negative divergence on daily MACD histogram. Many traders won't jump in unless stochastic or RSI turns up from lower values. I guess that will be couple of days.

I am long at 114 since 1st of March.

Positive of Coffee going up but think it will take couple of days.
I will add to long when stochastic turns up probably on Wednesday.

Sam

 

[DaveT]

Hi Sam,

I would tend to agree with your analysis, and opinion that Coffee is gathering itself for a sustained move up soon.

I too added LONGS at 11400 - just in case that ascending triangle broke UP stright away.

But you do often see a 'spring' back into the range just before it does break out UPWARDS.
I've seen it many times in diffreent markets - and it can often stop out the weak longs before the move gets underway.

I believe that's what we saw today.
Once we close above 11500, I look for 12000-12500 pretty dam quick. :idea:

 

[TWI]

I am still long and I do believe in the story behind the coffee bull. It has always been a testing market but for now I am happy to sit on the longs and wait for the upside. That elusive 115.00 will definitely bethe key.