Climate Change

[cantagril]

Is it my imagination, or do I detect a note of sarcasm in your post cant'?

Moi, sarcastic? Never!

...and there's lots more to go into that pot of yours besides old Pol....I left out Boris for a start and then there's Corby.....and the appalling Rees-Smug. They all believe in what they believe in, it's just that what they believe in ain't necessarily what they say they believe in.

 

[cantagril]

Hi Pat,
That's a akin to saying that the S&P500 has achieved successive new highs in a bull market. Ya don't say!
............

True genius Timsk! I've been slapping my forehead relentlessly since I read this (which might account for some of my posts) and it is so clear now: New highs on the S&P = Global warming! ...or is that the other way round? Anyway, you've established correlation so I'm certain that some rocket scientist will sort out the causality bit. The world owes you.

 

[timsk]

Hi cant',

...and there's lots more to go into that pot of yours besides old Pol....I left out Boris for a start and then there's Corby.....and the appalling Rees-Smug. They all believe in what they believe in, it's just that what they believe in ain't necessarily what they say they believe in.

It's not my pot cant' - it's yours. And whilst I take your point about politicians saying one thing whilst believing another - that applies to most of them - if not all of them. Indeed, I've made this very point repeatedly on the 'other thread' about remain MPs thwarting Brexit. So, I'm afraid I'm none the wiser about what Piers Morgan has to do with any of the people you listed. As I say, prolly just me being thick. Again!

True genius Timsk! I've been slapping my forehead relentlessly since I read this (which might account for some of my posts) and it is so clear now: New highs on the S&P = Global warming! ...or is that the other way round? Anyway, you've established correlation so I'm certain that some rocket scientist will sort out the causality bit. The world owes you.

Pat was suggesting that it may come as a surprise to deniers of climate change (as he wrongly likes to label open minded sceptics like me) that the ten hottest years ever recorded came in the last twelve years. My point is that it's no surprise at all - hence the comment about the S&P500.
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

at was suggesting that it may come as a surprise to deniers of climate change (as he wrongly likes to label open minded sceptics like me) that the ten hottest years ever recorded came in the last twelve years. My point is that it's no surprise at all - hence the comment about the S&P500.

10 hottest years in last 12 is not usual. When was the last time we had 10 hottest / coldest / wettest weather in sequence?

I don't recall anything like it in my life time.

I've studied correlation way back at school. There is strong positive correlation between sighting of storks and birth rates too. What does that tell you?


It's hilarious linking climate change first to Brexit and now to S&P.

Timsk, have you stopped taking your medication? 😜

 

[cantagril]

It's not my pot cant' - it's yours. ..........I'm afraid I'm none the wiser about what Piers Morgan has to do with any of the people you listed. As I say, prolly just me being thick. Again!
Mais non, mon ami - it's important that you understand that I'm well into Curmudgeon land and therefore excused from civility and unfettered by the petty restrictions of logic and common sense.
Pat was suggesting that it may come as a surprise to deniers of climate change (as he wrongly likes to label open minded sceptics like me) that the ten hottest years ever recorded came in the last twelve years. My point is that it's no surprise at all - hence the comment about the S&P500.

Well, yeeees, I did sort get a dull glint of that through the haze of my dotage...but I assumed it was just the previous evening's duff claret repeating on me and so went for the intellectual high road instead.

...and btw, I've said it before but I think that this also bears restating (just in case you might think that I'm biased in some way) I hate almost everything and everybody fairly equally; indeed, on that front you might well consider me to be a beacon of Equality and Diversity.

 

[timsk]

It's hilarious linking climate change first to Brexit and now to S&P.

At',
I have never made a direct link between Brexit and climate change per se; clearly they are two very different things. Ditto for the S&P500 and climate change. My reference to both is explained in clear and simple language for anyone to understand. That you appear to be having difficulty in this regard suggests to me that perhaps it is you who might benefit from a visit to your GP to ask if s/he can prescribe some medication to help clear your mind!

In answer to your question: "When was the last time we had 10 hottest / coldest / wettest weather in sequence?" - take a gander at the chart above. Think of it like a chart of an index, I dunno, say the S&P500 for example. Now, just as you'd do with a whatever instrument you routinely look at, see if you can mark it up in a way that answers your own question. It's really very, very simple!
😜
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

View attachment 268458
At',
I have never made a direct link between Brexit and climate change per se; clearly they are two very different things. Ditto for the S&P500 and climate change. My reference to both is explained in clear and simple language for anyone to understand. That you appear to be having difficulty in this regard suggests to me that perhaps it is you who might benefit from a visit to your GP to ask if s/he can prescribe some medication to help clear your mind!

In answer to your question: "When was the last time we had 10 hottest / coldest / wettest weather in sequence?" - take a gander at the chart above. Think of it like a chart of an index, I dunno, say the S&P500 for example. Now, just as you'd do with a whatever instrument you routinely look at, see if you can mark it up in a way that answers your own question. It's really very, very simple!
😜
Tim.

Well when you draw it like that I have to stop, hum and haw for a few millenniums. I'll get back to you soon but don't hold your breath.

 

[Pat494]

Well, yeeees, I did sort get a dull glint of that through the haze of my dotage...but I assumed it was just the previous evening's duff claret repeating on me and so went for the intellectual high road instead.

...and btw, I've said it before but I think that this also bears restating (just in case you might think that I'm biased in some way) I hate almost everything and everybody fairly equally; indeed, on that front you might well consider me to be a beacon of Equality and Diversity.

I love the similiar quote from Porridge. ( Mr Mckay )
It went something on the lines of " I pride myself in being a very fair man, I treat you ( prisoners ) all with equal ................. contempt.
lol

 

[Signalcalc]

Irony on so many levels [emoji23]

Extinction Rebellion protestors get onto BBC roof during protest

A group of about 40 demonstrators targeted the corporation's New Broadcasting House headquarters at the top of Regent Street, chanting: 'BBC, BBC, can't you see, this is an emergency!'

mol.im

 

[cantagril]

Irony on so many levels [emoji23]

So....not just the roof then?

 

[timsk]

Fair warning: this video is highly offensive to anyone who is isn't open minded on the issue of climate change and only wants to hear and engage with the Extinction Rebellion narrative - or establishment variations thereof. If this is you - don't watch! For everyone else, enjoy . . .

 

[Pat494]

One good idea is for the UN to raise money from all nations by accepting an agreed % of the country's defence budget to help clear up pollution etc. The current world leaders are still mentally in the last century thinking that their salvation lies in bigger armies and more weapons.

 

[cantagril]

Fair warning: this video is highly offensive to anyone who is isn't open minded on the issue of climate change and only wants to hear and engage with the Extinction Rebellion narrative - or establishment variations thereof. If this is you - don't watch! For everyone else, enjoy . . .

I'm wrong and you're right...or do I mean the other way round? The fringe and youth do indeed tend to see things in primary colours and all caps but 'twas ever thus - whichever causes a particular generation espouses are perceived by that generation as being the only worthwhile and sensible ones possible. Look back to the Greenham Common women, CND and the Aldermaston marches and just a tad further back, the various Crusades - some of which took place within Europe and targetted Christians.....God (being ineffable and all that) was able to recognise His Own, and not a diesel generator or plastic yogi mat in sight.

It would be nice if those For - and those Against - could adopt a more nuanced approach but that's a bit like asking a cannibal to go vegetarian. True Believers of any kind - take Brexit, for example: no really, pleeeease take Brexit and do something with it so that I don't have to listen to unadulterated garbage that spills out of the various orifices of the proponents and opponents. Brexit is just such an issue or "crusade" - I'm right, you're wrong ....and if you don't get it you're stupid. Hmmm, even primary colours begin to look pretty against such a monochrome backdrop.

Climate Change and pollution have got completely mixed in with each other and have become an exemplar of the "ideal" conflux and imo it's going to take a while for that to be understood in a truly general sense. In the meantime, we are heading toward some kind of tipping point, even if it's not measurable in centigrade. As I've suggested earlier, we'll realise what we should have done, after the event. Just like trading - it's uncanny

 

[barjon]

I'm wrong and you're right...or do I mean the other way round? The fringe and youth do indeed tend to see things in primary colours and all caps but 'twas ever thus - whichever causes a particular generation espouses are perceived by that generation as being the only worthwhile and sensible ones possible. Look back to the Greenham Common women, CND and the Aldermaston marches and just a tad further back, the various Crusades - some of which took place within Europe and targetted Christians.....God (being ineffable and all that) was able to recognise His Own, and not a diesel generator or plastic yogi mat in sight.

It would be nice if those For - and those Against - could adopt a more nuanced approach but that's a bit like asking a cannibal to go vegetarian. True Believers of any kind - take Brexit, for example: no really, pleeeease take Brexit and do something with it so that I don't have to listen to unadulterated garbage that spills out of the various orifices of the proponents and opponents. Brexit is just such an issue or "crusade" - I'm right, you're wrong ....and if you don't get it you're stupid. Hmmm, even primary colours begin to look pretty against suck a monochrome backdrop.

Climate Change and pollution have got completely mixed in with each other and have become an examplar of the "ideal" conflux and imo it's going to take a while for that to be understood in a truly general sense. In the meantime, we are heading toward some kind of tipping point, even if it's not measurable in centigrade. As I've suggested earlier, we'll realise what we should have done, after the event. Just like trading - it's uncanny

All so eloquently put, canty. Not only is the “I’m right and you’re wrong - and if you don’t get it you’re stupid” brigade taking hold over so many aspects of our lives but they are now adding the rider “and if you don’t get it you must be removed from the board”. ugh.

 

[timsk]

I'm wrong and you're right...or do I mean the other way round? The fringe and youth do indeed tend to see things in primary colours and all caps but 'twas ever thus - whichever causes a particular generation espouses are perceived by that generation as being the only worthwhile and sensible ones possible. Look back to the Greenham Common women, CND and the Aldermaston marches and just a tad further back, the various Crusades - some of which took place within Europe and targetted Christians.....God (being ineffable and all that) was able to recognise His Own, and not a diesel generator or plastic yogi mat in sight.

It would be nice if those For - and those Against - could adopt a more nuanced approach but that's a bit like asking a cannibal to go vegetarian. True Believers of any kind - take Brexit, for example: no really, pleeeease take Brexit and do something with it so that I don't have to listen to unadulterated garbage that spills out of the various orifices of the proponents and opponents. Brexit is just such an issue or "crusade" - I'm right, you're wrong ....and if you don't get it you're stupid. Hmmm, even primary colours begin to look pretty against suck a monochrome backdrop.

Climate Change and pollution have got completely mixed in with each other and have become an examplar of the "ideal" conflux and imo it's going to take a while for that to be understood in a truly general sense. In the meantime, we are heading toward some kind of tipping point, even if it's not measurable in centigrade. As I've suggested earlier, we'll realise what we should have done, after the event. Just like trading - it's uncanny

Hi cant',
Yeah, I agree with everything you say. The only possible caveat is that I I get the feeling that you (and Jon) pigeonhole me in the 'I'm right, you're wrong' category which is something I would deny strongly. Or am I being paranoid! I suppose there's a grain of truth to that regarding some aspects of Brexit - but not climate change. I'm genuinely open minded about that and I think both sides have strong arguments. However, surely no one can deny that it's an issue that's been added to the list of 'woke' topics that everyone must conform to. Anyone who dares question the establishment view is either written off as 'climate change deniers' (which is as absurd and as meaningless as calling all brexiteers racist) - or just plain stupid. That's what gets my goat and it's why I post videos like the one above. It helps to redress the balance. Don't assume that just because Paul Joseph Watson's tirade appeared in a post with my name attached to it that I condone everything he says or the way he says it. That said, I do find his style entertaining.

For the sake or argument, I'm happy to accept we're heading to some kind of tipping point. But can't we (society in general I mean, not necessarily subscribers to this thread) have a sensible conversation about it? Extinction rebellion don't appear to want to do that, they just want to make ridiculous demands that will never be met. That's not right, it's unhelpful and is just as likely to alienate people from climate change issues as it is to convert them.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

..........The only possible caveat is that I I get the feeling that you (and Jon) pigeonhole me in the 'I'm right, you're wrong' category.........

Not at all, Tim.......well, maybe brexit and Parliament a tad.

 

[cantagril]

.........The only possible caveat is that I I get the feeling that you (and Jon) pigeonhole me in the 'I'm right, you're wrong' category .......

Not at all, Tim.......well, maybe brexit and Parliament a tad.

"All the world old is queer, save thee and me, and even thou art a little queer."

Robert Owen

 

[cantagril]

.................. Extinction rebellion don't appear to want to do that, they just want to make ridiculous demands that will never be met. That's not right, it's unhelpful and is just as likely to alienate people from climate change issues as it is to convert them.

Nah. I understand perfectly why you think this (not that the demands are not ridiculous for I would have used a less anodyne adjective with more asterisks) but once again - sorry, force of habit - you're wrong. By their very recalcitrance and unrealism they help define the spectrum on which others can find a place to nest. The frightful Farage did something akin to this with Brexit and his particular brand of incendiary populism which succeeded in shifting the conservatives further to the right and brought a certain kind of debate out of the shadows.

English culture puts agreement and rational discussion on a pedestal but imo this is a luxury that many other nations feel that they can either do without or that they get to their solutions in a way that harnesses conflict rather than reviling it. Since the idea of seeking out meaningful majority (and I mean the national tacit majority) opinion got trashed with the referendum farce, I believe that it's effectively open season on the kind of typically British compromise politics where very very few people were truly happy with outcomes but recognised that in the interests of ongoing stability it wasn't worth rocking the boat too much. Whether you think it was good or bad/fair or unfair, we are now living in a different era and the approach which served us reasonably well for several decades (if not over a century) has reached its Best-Before date. The stage we're at at the moment is that uncomfortable point between the niceness of civilised party politics and sporadic barricade-fests and troops on the streets. It's worth reminding ourselves that HM Armed forces was a part of daily life in NI for 20+ years and that the simmering antagonism and violence only died down with the essentially open border that came in during the 90s....propelled mostly - I shudder to even say their name! - by those EU scum.

My take on the future of life as we know it after Brexit is pretty simple: some stuff will be better, some stuff will be worse. It will depend on the individual as to what their opinion is - kind of like the rest of life really. Will life be drastically different? Probably not. The stuff we can't sort out a deal on during the short term will have to wait a bit longer but it's worth remembering that we had relationships with the EEC before we joined and earlier still with the countries that became its core members.

Alas, I'm not nearly so sanguine about the Climate Change thing. I am aware from personal experience that pollution and plastics are just a couple of the catastrophic damages that we're inflicting on future generations and that even if we take the optimist's approach to the rising temperatures and keep chanting the "I'm alright Jack" mantra, at some point we might find ourselves having to wear wellies while we do it. For the sake of argument, if we say that the whole argument that we can actually reverse or at slow down global warming is bogus then we have to start taking mitigation very seriously, and now. An example that might be of interest to a fair number of T2W members is the very real and imminent Thames barrier prob. By chance, a friend's father was the chief engineer on the barrier during construction from the 70s until sometime after it opened in the early 80s and I remember him saying very shortly after he retired in 92 (I think) that the barrier was too low when it was originally conceived in the 60s and that he thought it might be over-topped in his life-time. He was wrong there as he was planted about 5 years ago and London is still dry, however, the fact remains that whether the life-span of the barrier will be the originally projected 50 years (sell-by-date 2030 odd**) or the more optimistic 75 years, at some point a lot of people are going to have to move to higher ground. ...and in the meantime, does one just wait? Or right now start setting aside more and more land for bigger, better and higher flood defenses? And who's going to pay for it? And which government will make it part of their manifesto??

**for those interested in these kind of amusements, I believe that those nice folk at the Met office have suggested that the storm surges of 2032 will represent a kind of shit or bust moment. If Londoners aren't all doing the breast-stroke that year then we might good for another 50.

 

[timsk]

Hi cant',
Thanks for the detailed response.

Nah. I understand perfectly why you think this (not that the demands are not ridiculous for I would have used a less anodyne adjective with more asterisks) but once again - sorry, force of habit - you're wrong. By their very recalcitrance and unrealism they help define the spectrum on which others can find a place to nest. The frightful Farage did something akin to this with Brexit and his particular brand of incendiary populism which succeeded in shifting the conservatives further to the right and brought a certain kind of debate out of the shadows.

Fair point, but it's about their only useful purpose that I can see. They argue that their actions push climate change further up the political agenda and ensure the great unwashed are aware of the issues. The former aren't that bothered by it and see it merely as a tool to gain political capital, while the latter - for the most part - don't believe it. By 'it', I mean the doomsday apocalyptic predictions - as opposed to the horrendous amounts of waste and pollution that I think most people are very concerned about - me included.

English culture puts agreement and rational discussion on a pedestal but imo this is a luxury that many other nations feel that they can either do without or that they get to their solutions in a way that harnesses conflict rather than reviling it. Since the idea of seeking out meaningful majority (and I mean the national tacit majority) opinion got trashed with the referendum farce, I believe that it's effectively open season on the kind of typically British compromise politics where very very few people were truly happy with outcomes but recognised that in the interests of ongoing stability it wasn't worth rocking the boat too much. Whether you think it was good or bad/fair or unfair, we are now living in a different era and the approach which served us reasonably well for several decades (if not over a century) has reached its Best-Before date. The stage we're at at the moment is that uncomfortable point between the niceness of civilised party politics and sporadic barricade-fests and troops on the streets. It's worth reminding ourselves that HM Armed forces was a part of daily life in NI for 20+ years and that the simmering antagonism and violence only died down with the essentially open border that came in during the 90s....propelled mostly - I shudder to even say their name! - by those EU scum.

Yeah, that seems like a fair assessment to me. Nothing stays the same, everything changes (another reason to leave the EU for me as they don't accept this universal law) - so I think there will have to be a paradigm shift in politics which could be uncomfortable. One only has to look at the Arab Spring to see that although, fingers crossed, whatever happens here won't involve the armed forces or violence.

My take on the future of life as we know it after Brexit is pretty simple: some stuff will be better, some stuff will be worse. It will depend on the individual as to what their opinion is - kind of like the rest of life really. Will life be drastically different? Probably not. The stuff we can't sort out a deal on during the short term will have to wait a bit longer but it's worth remembering that we had relationships with the EEC before we joined and earlier still with the countries that became its core members.

Again, agreed. I actually don't care that much about Brexit per se, but I care a lot about it's impact on democracy. Dragging the courts into politics is a huge mistake and the blatant bias and abuse of power by the Speaker of HoC are two areas of concern as 'we' (the people) can't do much about them. MPs worry me less as large tranches of them will be booted out at the next election. I know, I know, those that replace them probably won't be any better - but we can live in hope!

Alas, I'm not nearly so sanguine about the Climate Change thing. I am aware from personal experience that pollution and plastics are just a couple of the catastrophic damages that we're inflicting on future generations and that even we take the optimist's approach to the rising temperatures and keep chanting the "I'm alright Jack" mantra, at some point we might find ourselves having to wear wellies while we do it. For the sake of argument, if we say that the whole argument that we can actually reverse or at slow down global warming is bogus then we have to start taking mitigation very seriously, and now. An example that might be of interest to a fair number of T2W members is the very real and imminent Thames barrier prob. By chance, a friend's father was the chief engineer on the barrier during construction from the 70s until sometime after it opened in the early 80s and I remember him saying very shortly after he retired in 92 (I think) that the barrier was too low when it was originally conceived in the 60s and that he thought it might be over-topped in his life-time. He was wrong there as he was planted about 5 years ago and London is still dry, however, the fact remains that whether the life-span of the barrier will be the originally projected 50 years (sell-by-date 2030 odd**) or the more optimistic 75 years, at some point a lot of people are going to have to move to higher ground. ...and in the meantime, does one just wait? Or right now start setting aside more and more land for bigger, better and higher flood defenses? And who's going to pay for it? And which government will make it part of their manifesto??

**for those interested in these kind of amusements, I believe that those nice folk at the Met office have suggested that the storm surges of 2032 will represent a kind of shit or bust moment. If Londoners aren't all doing the breast-stroke that year then we might good for another 50.

Regarding pollution and plastics - I'm with you all the way on that. But please can we separate this from the climate change debate as one piggybacking the other merely muddies the already murky waters.

Sea level rises don't concern me personally as I'm not convinced they're a major problem that can't be managed. I refer back to my earlier post about this; if it really is a problem then many more people would be taking it very seriously and starting to implement mitigation measures. To the best of my knowledge they're not even talking about it that much, possibly because the U.N. IPCC says it's median projection is just 500mm by the end of this century. A problem, yes, but by no means an existential one.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

1. It took 200,000 years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion; and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion. Currently about 7.7 billion and increasing at over 1% a year. It doesn’t seem beyond the pale to suggest that the impact of population growth of this order and, more importantly, the human activity that accompanies it must be having some effect on the natural balance.
2. The population growth and the associated activity has almost become exponential and almost impossible to stop.
3. Most of the world’s population are “have nots” striving to become “haves” and therefore indulging in the human activities that affect the natural balance of things.

So, man-made climate change - yes or no? Given the above it seems best to assume yes, try to limit our “dirtier” activities - albeit that they won’t stop growing - and to be well prepared to deal with the changes that may befall us. If we are wrong then we won’t have lost much and we’ll be a little bit cleaner and may even need the preparedness even if we had not created the problem.