Chuck, Dick, Ricky, and Jack

[dbphoenix]

Since I base my approach to the market and market action on the basics, I've developed the habit of asking myself what Chuck (Charles Dow), Dick (Richard Wyckoff), Ricky (Richard Schabacker), and Jack (John Magee) would think about what I'm looking at, not to the extent of channelling , but at least to an avoidance of the sort of tunnel vision that is so common.

I have no idea whether or not there is or will be any interest in an "indicatorless" (PV* only) view of market action (i.e., market indexes -- or indices, if you will). If not, that's that. But I'll put together a chart or two later in order to test the waters.


*Price and Volume

 

[options]

Now you just know that there will be interest DB.

Carry on m8

 

[dbphoenix]

Wound up being three charts: the Dow, the NYSE, and the SPY as proxy for the SPX to get volume.

In a nutshell, the market found value two years ago and initiated what seems to be the first leg of a bull market. Everything then corrected around 30%, taking its own sweet time about doing so. Then proceeded to make new highs, except for the DJIA, though the DJIA is moving in the correct direction to confirm the DJTA.

Therefore, I see no reason to believe that this is not the second leg of the run, particularly since so many people think it can't go any higher and are waiting for it to fall. Volume, while not exactly fevered, has been encouraging. If this all plays out according to tradition, there'll be another correction, then a third leg. And that will be the time to shift gears.

FYI, the extra volume window on the Dow is the DIA since the volume on the Dow can be rather dull and featureless.

 

[dbphoenix]

Unusual activity these past two days, and while the indices haven't exactly set the world on fire since I posted the above charts, they could very well correct here if they want to (not much I can do about it one way or the other). FWIW, a return to their last swing lows would result in a 30% +/- correction in each, comparable to the Jan - Aug correction, which is certainly acceptable.

Then there's the third leg . . .

 

[roguetrader]

Therefore, I see no reason to believe that this is not the second leg of the run, particularly since so many people think it can't go any higher and are waiting for it to fall. .

Odd, 90% of what I hear on financial programs is how bullish everybody is, the bear is dead, just the senario for a "long live the bear"

 

[dbphoenix]

I just follow the charts . . .

 

[erierambler]

Dow Theory

Hope no ones minds reviving this thread.
Here is the Transports, attempting a new high. It appears they have a good chance.Price has regrouped from a previous attempt and possibly gathered enough strength. Was wondering if they should confirm highs in Industrials, wouldn't it be sensible to see the Industrials then correct?
erie

 

[dbphoenix]

Probably a good thing that nobody ever paid any attention to this thread. Leaves it very clean.

But, as it turned out, the Dow just went sideways for a year. One could argue that this was a "time" correction and that we are now in the second leg, but, regardless, the activity was not topping action. And, yes, the Indies could correct. The tag team approach. More sectors look to be taking part. We'll see.

Since you're paying attention to this, I assume you're also watching new highs and the volume?

Db

 

[erierambler]

Since you're paying attention to this, I assume you're also watching new highs and the volume?

Db

Yes, I've even went as far as keeping track of new highs , lows , % above averages, etc. for each sector as well as for the Indu and Trans and Nyse. The beat goes on.... Thanks.

erie

 

[dbphoenix]

After all these years, you're the only one I know of who does.

 

[ajaskey]

After all these years, you're the only one I know of who does.

Hey... I do every day. I've just found they are so boring to talk about out loud...

 

[dbphoenix]

Hey... I do every day. I've just found they are so boring to talk about out loud...

If you can find anyone who knows what you're talking about . . .

Then there's the fact that these things take time to unfold, and few have the patience . . .

 

[erierambler]

Hey... I do every day. I've just found they are so boring to talk about out loud...

Good to know , Andy, some people are not afraid to roll their long sleeves up and keep them up!
At first I thought the Transports wouldn't make it this far, but it sure shows the trend is up.
erie

 

[dbphoenix]

I wonder if this will eventually be judged as the longest bear market rally in history . . .

 

[dbphoenix]

Note also the "failure to breach" in the transports . . .

 

[erierambler]

Transports and Industrials

Here we go again, Transports are making a new high confirming Industrials. On the watch again. Wasn't much of a correction in Feb/Mar, but nice runup since then......

erie

 

[erierambler]

Transports and Industrials

Regarding the last move up, the Transports have lagged. Price may be on the springboard for a move either way.

erie

 

[dbphoenix]

An update on the transports, for posterity . . .

 

[firewalker99]

An update on the transports, for posterity . . .

Doesn't this look like a test from the other side?

 

[dbphoenix]

Yes. But not of the TL, as some might think.