Can't seem to Let the Winners run

[Jdesey]

AARRGH... I trade the NQ exclusivly... I can get god setups and entries... I just seem to be so trigger happy to take a 5 point ofr 7 point gain..and then watch it turn to what would have been so much more. Today, just two trades alone I pulled 10 points, had I trailed them up it would have been over 36 points.

anyone have any advice

 

[debrox]

Wait longer before you sell.

 

[counter_violent]

AARRGH... I trade the NQ exclusivly... I can get god setups and entries... I just seem to be so trigger happy to take a 5 point ofr 7 point gain..and then watch it turn to what would have been so much more. Today, just two trades alone I pulled 10 points, had I trailed them up it would have been over 36 points.

anyone have any advice

Ok...now be truthful here ok !
Forget the issue of running winners for a min. Do you find that you have the patience to wait for good set up entries ? If yes then how about doubling your initial stake...taking the momentum part and exiting half the position, allowing the remainder to be managed without the pressure.

 

[Jason101]

Or even three positions and exiting 2 after momentum, so your worst case scenario is a good profit and not just a break even.

 

[marbig]

Or even three positions and exiting 2 after momentum, so your worst case scenario is a good profit and not just a break even.

If you are going to use 3X the position size at the start, use a ROCK SOLID stop loss EVERY time.

 

[wackypete2]

Good advice so far. I might add try setting up your stop loss and a target profit then walk away for a while. This might be the best way to go but it will help you learn to stay in the trade. Also remember you can't expect to get every possible pip or point from your trade.

Peter

 

[eegozi]

I would NOT double or triple your entry position size unless you are really confident on the setup and it still adheres to the 2% or less rule of capital at risk for the trade based on where the stop loss is placed.

I used to have the same problem and have noticed that a EMA 13 and EMA 39 cross on the LOWEST time frame I look at has been a REALLY good sell signal for me. I usually trade using 3 time frames to corroborate my trade setup (usually weekly, daily, 60 min). So take a 13,39 EMA cross on the 60 min time frame. If you trade shorter time frames try it on the 15 min or 5 min time frame or whatever you use. It works really well and you stay in the short term trend until its no longer a short term trend. This simple rule has changed my trading tremendously.

Go back and look at the trade you did not reap as much profit as you wanted and see if this rule would have helped....I bet it would have made you more $$$.

Good Luck.

 

[Sidekicker]

AARRGH... I trade the NQ exclusivly... I can get god setups and entries... I just seem to be so trigger happy to take a 5 point ofr 7 point gain..and then watch it turn to what would have been so much more. Today, just two trades alone I pulled 10 points, had I trailed them up it would have been over 36 points.

anyone have any advice

You either learn to wait or you have to tackle your emotions by scaling out of a trade.
Take 50% profit, let 50% run or take 33%, then another 33% then another 33%, etc.

 

[AspiringTrader.]

Think i might grab some of this advice also, see i have the opposite problem, i let my winners run too long.. well, so to speak anyway. But i usually have two targets, 1 an intermediate target and 2nd my main target. When i come close to my first target i like to evaluate my position and the possibilities and potential outcomes, and if i think the trade is still okay then i will run the trade further hoping for my main target and hold out on closing.

And this is when one of three things happen,

1, the trade will start to move against me when i'm close to my first target giving back most my pips gained and stop me out B/E

2, i'll think " Well i could take these pips now and run away with some profit.. buuutt i'm feelin after this short reversal the market will continue in my direction" so i'll keep my stop for some protection, only to be stopped out on a eventual change of market direction.

Or 3, I'll be satisfied with my first target and take a small win or have a really good trade and hit my main target.

But unfortunately it's mostly always 1 or 2 that happens, i'll either hit B/E or be stopped out for a loss even though i may have even hit my first target, because i let them run too long in fear of missing out on more pips(Someone say.. GREED!). But now with this new advice, i'll take out 2 positions 1 for first target, and 1 for second. If all goes well and first target hits or comes close, i'll bank it then move my second position to B/E and just hope for the best. Certainly might remove a lot of issues and frustration I've been having lately, giving most my profits back.

Definitely takes out a lot of confusion for my exit strategies.

Just seems easier, less emotion " Should i close, or will it move further in my direction.. what to dooo, **** it's moving against me CLOSEEE.. HOLLDD.... ARGGGHHHH ", easier decision making, less hassle and more profits!!(hopefully, lol).

Any opinions on this? Hopefully i got what you guys were trying to get across.

Anyway thanks again to the OP for his origina0 questionl and the replies, what's been helpful advice for the OP has been very helpful advice for me.

Cheers
AT.

 

[tomorton]

I wonder if running winners is just a vendor's sales gimmick from the US bull markets - looks good on an old chart chart but in real time more of a way of ramping risk rather than a realistic capital protection plan.

 

[Hotch]

I wonder if running winners is just a vendor's sales gimmick from the US bull markets - looks good on an old chart chart but in real time more of a way of ramping risk rather than a realistic capital protection plan.

Running winners => holding through a pullback
holding through a pullback => being long when the market's going down
being long when the market's going down is silly.

That's how I've always viewed it. I guess you can say you run winners while the market is going vertical, but I don't think anyone has trouble doing that.

 

[new_trader]

AARRGH... I trade the NQ exclusivly... I can get god setups and entries... I just seem to be so trigger happy to take a 5 point ofr 7 point gain..and then watch it turn to what would have been so much more. Today, just two trades alone I pulled 10 points, had I trailed them up it would have been over 36 points.

anyone have any advice

No matter what advice you get it will take many months and possibly years to 'train' yourself into the right habit. I don't believe there are any miracle cures, only perseverance will get you there. I've been at the game for over 5 years and I still cut trades short, however it brings to mind the reply Nathan Rothschild gave when asked about the secret to success - “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.”

 

[timsk]

Hi Jdesey,
Welcome to T2W.

Do you use TA / charting package of any kind for your entry decisions? If so, what style of chart do you look at (e.g. line, bar or candle etc)?
Tim.

 

[JRP2891]

You either learn to wait or you have to tackle your emotions by scaling out of a trade.
Take 50% profit, let 50% run or take 33%, then another 33% then another 33%, etc.

Jdsey, give this approach a try. It's a lot easier to run trades once you know your risk is off the table.

 

[the hare]

You either learn to wait or you have to tackle your emotions by scaling out of a trade.
Take 50% profit, let 50% run or take 33%, then another 33% then another 33%, etc.

I'm really not a great fan of this sort of approach. Its psychologically comfortable, but I've yet to come across any strategy where multiple exits actually improve results.

The position size is greatest at the point when you have most risk (so using the 3 contract example, losses are 3X greater than they would have been with a single contract), and on the odd occassion you get a huge trend, you benefit only from the remaining 1 contract rather than 3 so profits are reduced.

Either letting winners run is a sensible thing to do for a given strategy, or it isnt. Only analysing the hard data can give the answer, not people on a forum who have insufficient information to advise.

 

[JRP2891]

I'm really not a great fan of this sort of approach. Its psychologically comfortable, but I've yet to come across any strategy where multiple exits actually improve results.

The position size is greatest at the point when you have most risk (so using the 3 contract example, losses are 3X greater than they would have been with a single contract), and on the odd occassion you get a huge trend, you benefit only from the remaining 1 contract rather than 3 so profits are reduced.

Either letting winners run is a sensible thing to do for a given strategy, or it isnt. Only analysing the hard data can give the answer, not people on a forum who have insufficient information to advise.

That's a fair point.

However, if you trade a low win rate method where you're looking for an outlier on EVERY trade, I'd advise scaling out providing this approach yields a positive expectancy through the backtesting you've done. Scaling out may indeed detract from the bottom line, but if you can't trade a method due to the extreme equity curve then that's the real cost.

 

[Jason101]

If you are going to use 3X the position size at the start, use a ROCK SOLID stop loss EVERY time.

I don't see the connection between taking/exiting three positions and using 3x position size??

 

[VendorExterminator]

Telling people to ramp up size because they can't run winners is quite frankly idiotic. Those very same emotions which stop them maximising their winners will cause them to mess up their trade on 2/3 times their default clip, and the net result will be much, much worse! Horse manure advice. Nay.

 

[the hare]

Horse manure advice...

I rather suspect that particular bit of "advice" was posted 4 lulz

 

[VendorExterminator]

I rather suspect that particular bit of "advice" was posted 4 lulz

This is my advice to you: