Win% - 39.93%

Risk:Reward - 1.36

Average Win - £78.00

Average Loss - £38.22

So if I use a risk adjusted weighting,

(0.3993 x £78.00) - (0.6007 x £38.22) = 31.14 - 22.96 = 8.18

So on this basis the system trades positively (sample size, 293 trades)

If I work out the Kelly value for this though, it comes up as -4.24% - bad as it's negative. Putting these numbers in here over the same sample size shows an eventual demise of the account. Random Equity Curve Simulator of a trading system. Learn it before you trade

So what's right. The Kelly value or the risk adjusted weighting and why do the two seem to contradict each other?