Buy DELL Sell HPQ

[Atilla]

Buy Dell - as they are moving into enterprise computing

Sell HP - because they will lose market share to Dell

As a consequence of the credit crunch and tough market conditions large corporates and enterprise level companies are now considering replacing the all famous HP/Compaq brand of servers and desktops with the more cost effective Dell machines.

In some cases they are almost one third of the price of HPs.

This reminds me of the time when Compaq was a small upstart PC clone taking on the might of IBM PCs. Soon enough Compaq knocked IBM for six in terms of quality build, reliability and performance.

I know of a few FTSE100 companies considering this very option and these are likely to be global decisions, thus international sites will follow suits when the time comes to refreshing their hardware technologies (usually once every 3 years or so).

I'm expecting some levelling here, such that HP HW prices will come down and Dell will capture market share and their HW prices will rise. In the last 3-5 years Dell has underperformed HP. However, if you look at 1 year charts you can see recovery in Dell share price & earnings is greater than HP. I believe this trend will continue as Dell outpaces HP.

Hewlett-Packard Company - Google Finance

The only consideration is if Dell screw up on the reliability and support side of the equation. Based on their level of experience and quality builds this is unlikely imo.

This is a 3-5 year tip from yours truly...

As of 28 July 09
HPQ = $42
Dell = $14

Enjoy the ride...

 

[Atilla]

Buy Dell - as they are moving into enterprise computing

Sell HP - because they will lose market share to Dell

As a consequence of the credit crunch and tough market conditions large corporates and enterprise level companies are now considering replacing the all famous HP/Compaq brand of servers and desktops with the more cost effective Dell machines.

In some cases they are almost one third of the price of HPs.

This reminds me of the time when Compaq was a small upstart PC clone taking on the might of IBM PCs. Soon enough Compaq knocked IBM for six in terms of quality build, reliability and performance.

I know of a few FTSE100 companies considering this very option and these are likely to be global decisions, thus international sites will follow suits when the time comes to refreshing their hardware technologies (usually once every 3 years or so).

I'm expecting some levelling here, such that HP HW prices will come down and Dell will capture market share and their HW prices will rise. In the last 3-5 years Dell has underperformed HP. However, if you look at 1 year charts you can see recovery in Dell share price & earnings is greater than HP. I believe this trend will continue as Dell outpaces HP.

Hewlett-Packard Company - Google Finance

The only consideration is if Dell screw up on the reliability and support side of the equation. Based on their level of experience and quality builds this is unlikely imo.

This is a 3-5 year tip from yours truly...

As of 28 July 09
HPQ = $42
Dell = $14

Enjoy the ride...

As of 27th August 09
HPQ = 44.81 6.7% increase
Dell = 15.65 11.8% increase

Double the increase...

Watch this space as Dell will eat into HP's market...

 

[Atilla]

As of 27th August 09
HPQ = 44.81 6.7% increase
Dell = 15.65 11.8% increase

Double the increase...

Watch this space as Dell will eat into HP's market...

As of 18th May 2011
HPQ = 36.53
Dell = 16.73


This was pretty obvious some time ago...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...-where-h-p-stumbled-2011-05-18?dist=afterbell

 

[jets24]

wow, nice analysis. that is insane, how you got it so accurately. pretty impressive.

 

[Atilla]

wow, nice analysis. that is insane, how you got it so accurately. pretty impressive.

I had inside knowledge - work in IT and carried out a review of HW provision and renewal of global maintenance and support contracts for a FTSE100 company. Budgets were shrinking over 2008/9 and HP costs were simply too high for kit that seldom broke down.

People immediately may say - well that's why they cost more - you pay for quality. However, point here is how many semi-conductor manufacturers are there around the world? Very few compared to computer brands. They all use pretty much same components re-badged. Computers seldom brake-down as reliability has increased.

Same old story as Compaq and IBM. What goes around comes around...

We evaluated the Dell kit and service provisions and passed recommendation to the board. I figured if this is my conclusion then good many global purchasers will reach the same decision to switch.

Another recommendation was to reduce number of SLA / OLAs in the global company to standardise three levels. This was a real nightmare as different divisions / systems / countries had numerous different SLAs etc. You know why not have 32 when you can have 3. 2hr response 4hr fix, same day fix, NBD (next bus day) etc... People are like sheep - they'll wonder off in all directions if left unattended.

There is so much waste here that global corporations and enterprise class companies are paying way too much to support kit that seldom brakes down. They can save hundreds and millions in all honesty.

Easy exercise to look at helpdesk calls and produce Mean Time to Failure stats to see what % of kit fail and how quickly they get repaired / fixed etc.

You can then draw conclusions and make informed appropriate purchasing decisions.

 

[forker]

Aaah ITIL, what a boring area of IT

 

[Splitlink]

Yes, I'm going for Dell for home. I have a Compaq, now. It is a disappointing computer. I had an Opción for years and it is , still, going in our business as a reserve machine if the others are in use. We have one Dell and two IBM's there.

I'm betting no one has heard of Opcion. They were a small Barcelona firm (you've heard of Barcelona, right? It goes with Manchester United!) but they went out of business, or were bought out by a bigger company. Their computer lives on in our place but it is a tiddler these days.

 

[Atilla]

Aaah ITIL, what a boring area of IT

Nope not boring at all - on the contrary everything changes so fast and development is soooooo rapid.

What I used to find attractive however, is now a pain. All my certifications have expired and I don't have the appetite to keep studying anymore.

If I had a career choice right now - I'd pick farming.


Technology prices coming down.
Commodity prices going up.


Always the true economist. :smart:

 

[Atilla]

Yes, I'm going for Dell for home. I have a Compaq, now. It is a disappointing computer. I had an Opción for years and it is , still, going in our business as a reserve machine if the others are in use. We have one Dell and two IBM's there.

I'm betting no one has heard of Opcion. They were a small Barcelona firm (you've heard of Barcelona, right? It goes with Manchester United!) but they went out of business, or were bought out by a bigger company. Their computer lives on in our place but it is a tiddler these days.

Opcion is probably the brand name.

I'll have a bet if you look inside the graphic card you'll notice it is Hercules or something like that - I'd guess.

You need to be aware though old hard disks have a certain life span - after which they fail. Backup and DR critical if your data is valuable.

Anything mechanical with moving parts always have higher probability of failure than integrated circuit boards / processors etc.

 

[Splitlink]

Opcion is probably the brand name.

I'll have a bet if you look inside the graphic card you'll notice it is Hercules or something like that - I'd guess.

You need to be aware though old hard disks have a certain life span - after which they fail. Backup and DR critical if your data is valuable.

Anything mechanical with moving parts always have higher probability of failure than integrated circuit boards / processors etc.

Thanks. We use a lot of those portable hard disks now. The Opción is, very much, a retired but still servicable computer. To get back to your point, my kids talk about Dell when thinking of replacement computers. Me? I'm a dino!

 

[ilovecrystal]

dell will down

 

[KyleLennon]

Based on Finstead, it indicated that giving a further boost to its declining Printing business, HP in 2017 announced that its all-new A3 multifunction printers (MFPs) will now be shipped globally to more than 80 countries covering all key markets. These printers are designed to disrupt the traditional $55 billion A3 copier category. HP's highly scalable and cost-optimized printers will meet the increasing demand of customers' printing needs.

HPQ quarterly revenue growth was 11.30%.

I will not short HPQ this year.