Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

momo3HC

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2020-01-19 21_21_26-Window.png


Hi all and Happy New Year. Wishing you an awesome and profitable one to be. As first BTC analysis for the year it will be more really long term so let`s get to the point.

It was a good price movement lately and I really believe that the $6.4K level was the bottom.

Everything which i`ll say from here is situated on historical PA and a bit of math. From now i`m expecting the 2nd small parabolic move which must take place till the next summer may be, followed by descending before the 3rd big parabolic move which must take us to the next halving cycle ATH. That`s the first PA, which I can call it “1,2,3 steps”, move made by BTC in previous halving cycles. The second one is the bigger accumulation/parabolic periods in BTC`s PA history. Every time they`re getting 1.4 times longer than previous one.

So judging by this two PA I can assume that the next BTC All Time High will be… in June 2022 and the price will be somewhere around… $170K. That`s insane!!!

I just want to say 3 more things:

  • This is just a prognosis. It`s 50:50. It can become real or no but at this point that`s how i`m seeing the BTC PA future and that`s only my (or may be not only my) opinion.
  • I`m not talking about May`s halving and the price then cuz it`s coming very soon and i`m a really long term HODLer.
  • Starting from the previous two points that`s a really long term analysis. I`ll be more specific in short or mid-term period into next week analysis.
 
273934

Hi all. The first month for 2020 already passed and it was hell of a good month for BTC. Hope that`s just a preview for the whole year. Last time i`ve presented to you a really long term analysis so let`s get back to shorter ones.

Beside of all financial markets, today was a really hot day for the winter season (around 20 degrees) and that`s why i`ve been on a pleasant walk with my wife and friends. That`s why i`m kind of tired now and i`ll be really short but punctual in my analysis.

The graph is not really changed except the new support and resistance levels and 2 newly added indicators.

Two support levels:

  • $8500 - previous resistance and 50% fibo level
  • $7800 - previous resistance level
Resistance level: $9800 - previous resistance and 38.2% fibo level

What about the newly added indicators? Here they are:

  • Pivot point. A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
  • The pivot point is the basis for the indicator, but it also includes other support and resistance levels that are projected based on the pivot point calculation. All these levels help traders see where the price could experience support or resistance. Similarly, if the price moves through these levels it lets the trader know the price is trending in that direction.
  • Last weeks the price was consistently above PP levels. As you`ll see we`ll close this week above it again (Weekly pivot point (week 5 `20)). I`m calculating the next week PP level on a $9440 closing price. It can change a bit cuz this week candle is now yet closed but if the closing price is around $9440 it will be similar.
  • Parabolic SAR. I`ll not go in deep into explanation what is PSAR but if you want to learn more about it here`s a good article about it - https://www.forex.academy/profitable-trading-computerized-studies-iii-psar/ . The most important here is that PSAR is turned back to bullish after the price top back in July last year. If that`s not a strong bullish signal I don`t know what can be.
That`s for now from me guys. Wishing you a wonderful and prosper week and month.
 
View attachment 273149

Hi all and Happy New Year. Wishing you an awesome and profitable one to be. As first BTC analysis for the year it will be more really long term so let`s get to the point.

It was a good price movement lately and I really believe that the $6.4K level was the bottom.

Everything which i`ll say from here is situated on historical PA and a bit of math. From now i`m expecting the 2nd small parabolic move which must take place till the next summer may be, followed by descending before the 3rd big parabolic move which must take us to the next halving cycle ATH. That`s the first PA, which I can call it “1,2,3 steps”, move made by BTC in previous halving cycles. The second one is the bigger accumulation/parabolic periods in BTC`s PA history. Every time they`re getting 1.4 times longer than previous one.

So judging by this two PA I can assume that the next BTC All Time High will be… in June 2022 and the price will be somewhere around… $170K. That`s insane!!!

I just want to say 3 more things:

  • This is just a prognosis. It`s 50:50. It can become real or no but at this point that`s how i`m seeing the BTC PA future and that`s only my (or may be not only my) opinion.
  • I`m not talking about May`s halving and the price then cuz it`s coming very soon and i`m a really long term HODLer.
  • Starting from the previous two points that`s a really long term analysis. I`ll be more specific in short or mid-term period into next week analysis.
Dude I'm really rooting for your ATH prediction of $170 K , we be rich well better off !!
 
View attachment 273934
Hi all. The first month for 2020 already passed and it was hell of a good month for BTC. Hope that`s just a preview for the whole year. Last time i`ve presented to you a really long term analysis so let`s get back to shorter ones.

Beside of all financial markets, today was a really hot day for the winter season (around 20 degrees) and that`s why i`ve been on a pleasant walk with my wife and friends. That`s why i`m kind of tired now and i`ll be really short but punctual in my analysis.

The graph is not really changed except the new support and resistance levels and 2 newly added indicators.

Two support levels:

  • $8500 - previous resistance and 50% fibo level
  • $7800 - previous resistance level
Resistance level: $9800 - previous resistance and 38.2% fibo level

What about the newly added indicators? Here they are:

  • Pivot point. A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
  • The pivot point is the basis for the indicator, but it also includes other support and resistance levels that are projected based on the pivot point calculation. All these levels help traders see where the price could experience support or resistance. Similarly, if the price moves through these levels it lets the trader know the price is trending in that direction.
  • Last weeks the price was consistently above PP levels. As you`ll see we`ll close this week above it again (Weekly pivot point (week 5 `20)). I`m calculating the next week PP level on a $9440 closing price. It can change a bit cuz this week candle is now yet closed but if the closing price is around $9440 it will be similar.
  • Parabolic SAR. I`ll not go in deep into explanation what is PSAR but if you want to learn more about it here`s a good article about it - https://www.forex.academy/profitable-trading-computerized-studies-iii-psar/ . The most important here is that PSAR is turned back to bullish after the price top back in July last year. If that`s not a strong bullish signal I don`t know what can be.
That`s for now from me guys. Wishing you a wonderful and prosper week and month.
How much impact will the halfling have? will this be a major market mover or just slow down increase rate?
 
My prediction for the next 1-2 months: Bitcoin price may cool down and slowly retrace near the area of $7,500-8,000. Then it could easily make another climb up over that $10,000+ mark.
 
From the long-term point of view, BTC/USD is poised for further growth with the next aim at $11,000.
 
My prediction for the next 1-2 months: Bitcoin price may cool down and slowly retrace near the area of $7,500-8,000. Then it could easily make another climb up over that $10,000+ mark.
Yes that sounds likely. Then we will just see if there will be another push up later on to further heights or not.
 
Yes that sounds likely. Then we will just see if there will be another push up later on to further heights or not.
I think that over the longterm Bitcoin price is trending upwards but it is not really on a wild ride. It is actually slowly rising and it is a stable, slow, methodical climb up in price. For now at least.

Bitcoin is not as volatile and emotional as we like to believe.
 
SO a good time to buy then?
In my opinion, the cryptocurrency space is on the beginning stages of a melt up. We will certainly see another huge spike like what happened in 2013 and in 2017. Those are four years apart and when I add 4 to 2017 I get 2021. Keep in mind, cycles usually go faster the next time around. The end of this year or sometime next year, if you want to get in I wouldn't try to time it I would just get in.
 
BTC 23022020.jpg
IMG_2544.JPG

Hi all. This week i`m switching to 1D chart cuz there are more interesting things on it but before that let`s check the last analysis main points.
  • Pivot point for this week was 10003.96. We will close this week almost 100% probably under it, which means the next one could be negative.
  • Parabolic SAR is not changed and it`s still bullish.
Now let`s move to the actual analysis with the first chart.

Two support levels:
  • $9500 - previous resistance and support level
  • $9100-9000 - previous resistance and support level and almost 61.8 fibo level
Resistance level: $10500 - previous resistance and 100% fibo level

There`s two very bullish indicators into this chart too:
  • Golden cross happened between 50 and 200 MA`s. Very bullish signal in long term.
  • Supper guppy indicator. Very good indicator which seems to be turned bullish almost a month ago but i`m checking it now. Check it in tradingview chart if you`re interested.
2nd chart:

Thank`s to Glassnode we can check Bitcoin`s Reverse Risk (BRR) chart combined with it`s price.

In short we can conclude that in every time when BRR bottomed out from the green zone we`re facing in front of the bull run start to the next ATH or at least local high (like the 14K top from the last summer).

That`s for now from me guys. Wishing you a wonderful and prosper week. And remember that all about BTC is a long term game and almost every single indicator now is pointing north, no matter of $500, $1000 or even more dips for a day or week.
 
I think we could see a higher push this week with more cases of CV cropping up in Europe now. Seemed to push it higher before and I think combined with the clearly bullish technicals I wouldn't be surprised to see it holding above the $10500 by the end of the week.
 
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