Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

AdamCantor

Active member
127 11
View attachment 279603
View attachment 279604
Hi all. Like i`ve promised you last time, into the next couple of analysis i`ll show you the needed steps 1 by 1 from BTC to reach the next ATH. I`ve discussed the first one last time and now it`s a time for the second. Part one from the second condition for the next ATH (chart 1).
It`s simple. Part one from the second condition for the next ATH is to close a monthly candle above this actual down trend. This trend is massive. 28 months (851 days). That`s why it`s so important to break it. Just a quick wick for now which is nothing major. A close above $10500 break will be really massive bull signal and then this first part will be done. The good point at this chart is that we`re still above the 21 monthly EMA (this was the first condition for the next ATH).
Part two from the second condition for the next ATH (chart 2). It is to mark a HH (higher high) into the weekly chart. This means a close of a weekly candle above… guess what price… $10500. Yes, we were close before the latest dip but nothing`s yet lost. In summary: the needed level is $10500 and we need a monthly candle close and a weekly candle close both above it.
Actual support and resistance:
1. Support:
1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
2nd support - $7800
2. Resistance:
1st resistance - $9500-9800
2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
3. Weekly pivot point is $8679.42. The price is moving around it now and let`s see how it will end the week. 4. 50 SMA situation is same like the pivot point. The price is moving around it now and let`s see how it will end the week.
5. 21 weekly EMA is far below the price for now. Not bad.
In short $10500 is my golden price line. If we go above it… MOON and beyond!
See ya next time with the third part of ATH scenario.
excellent stuff man!!!! btw will moon in 2020
 

RachelFX

Active member
105 27
Very detailed look at the set-up!
I am looking long with the retest of support coming into play after the weekend
 

momo3HC

Active member
202 61
BTC 17052020_1.jpg

BTC 17052020_2.jpg

Hi all. Like i`ve promised you last time, into the next couple of analysis i`ll show you the needed steps 1 by 1 from BTC to reach the next ATH. I`ve discussed the first two into my last two analysis and now it`s a time for the final third one.

Here`s the third step to the next ATH (chart 1).

Many of you will say that after every single halvening, the next ATH takes more time. That`s right but not at 100%. I`m finding a very strict and simple rule into the past 2 ATH. Yes the 20K ATH took more time from the halvening than the previous one but… and this is a big but, check the time between breaking the previous ATH price after the every halvening and the next ATH. In both cases it`s exactly 10 months.

And here comes the third step to the next ATH. We can say that 10 months after we break the $19666 price level we can expect the next all-time high. When will be that ATH? Like I said all depends from the nearly $20k break.

So let`s summarize all 3 steps.
  • 21 monthly EMA. April candle closed above it. The first condition is already fulfilled.
  • A monthly close above $10500 and a HH (higher high) into the weekly chart.
  • Break above the last ATH ($20k) and 10 months of time.
That`s all. Simple enough.

Actual situation (chart 2).
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
  • 2nd support - $7800
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $9500-9800
  • 2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
  • Weekly pivot point is $8971.39. The price is far above it for now which is positive for the next week but let`s where this week will close.
  • 50 SMA situation is same like the pivot point. The price is far above it for now which is positive for the next week but let`s where this week will close.
  • 21 weekly EMA is far below the price for now. Not bad at all and it`s going to cross the 50 SMA which is another good sign.
  • With this week candle (if it close like now) we`re breaking the symmetrical triangle from the upside. Very positive sign.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 
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Reactions: RachelFX

DT5

Active member
123 21
Praying for $10k this week......
 

momo3HC

Active member
202 61
BTC 07062020_1.jpg

BTC 07062020_2.png

Hi all. Kind a long time no see from me but this time you`ve got to excuse me again. I`m not in a mood for some big charting so i`ll be short and share with you the actual weekly chart from the last time plus some new Stock to flow model.

Actual situation (chart 1).
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
  • 2nd support - $7800
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $9500-9800
  • 2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
  • Weekly pivot point is $9278.15.
  • 50 SMA is below the price for now.
  • 21 EMA is below the price for now.
  • We`re very close to a bullish cross between 21EMA and 50SMA but let`s wait for confirmation.
  • Whole this week candle is above the symmetrical triangle. Very positive sign.
As a conclusion i`m expecting a positive next week.

New Stock to flow model. (chart 2).

With the actual money printing and very possible inflation and even hyperinflation the future BTC price can reach $100k, $1mil. and more. But what will be the purchase power of this $100k or $1mil.? I think that`s the big question. Unlike the FIAT, Gold is gold. No matter now, before 100 of years or after 100 of years. That`s why the latest BTC vs Gold Stock to flow model is getting more important. Just check the chart.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 

momo3HC

Active member
202 61
BTC 20062020.jpg

Hi all. A lot of things happened lately and here I am again. This time only BTC chart (a weekly one) and no other distraction.
You can ask why and the answer is very simple – I want to be strictly price action orientated this time.
We saw a lot of movement in both directions but as you`ll see from the chart – nothing major changed.
Actual situation.
  1. The price is trying to breach the upside line but can`t do it. Only a small fake out for now. The game is not over yet.
  2. 10 EMA – the price perfectly bounced from it this week and it`s back above.
  3. 21 EMA - the price is still above it.
  4. Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  5. Parabolic SAR – 8 weeks bullish signaling.
  6. Weekly pivot point is $9413.80 – 50:50 possibility to close the week below it which can lead to negative next week.
  7. Support and resistance:
    7.1. Support:
    1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
    2nd support - $7800
    7.2. Resistance:
    1st resistance - $9500-9800
    2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
So as a conclusion theres plan A and B. Im 70:30 for plan A but who knows.
There`s no matter for me in long term. Both scenarios ends with the same final so BE HEALTHY and HODL.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 

sebking1986

Active member
218 70
I lean towards Plan A but I am not totally convinced as each time it has looked like it will go it has pulled back hard. Become a bit of a belive it when I see it scenario
 

pezza55

Member
56 16
Watched a very good analysis on the BTC moment suggesting that there could be a big spike to the lower side around 6k mark which will hold for a day or 2 before we rally into the year and break the 15k by September. half tempted to set some limit orders and see if i can get in on the drop.
 

momo3HC

Active member
202 61
BTC 28062020_1.jpg

BTC 28062020_2.jpg

Hi all. A boring week for me even with almost $1000 from the bottom to the peak of the BTC price.
This week will be only a small update from the last one plus one bullish chart and opinion from Bloomberg. I`m expecting next week and end of the month for more conclusions.
Actual situation. (chart 1)
  • The price is still trying to breach the upside line but still can`t do it.
  • 10 EMA – the price almost perfectly bounced from it again this week and it`s back above (for now).
  • 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  • Parabolic SAR – 9 weeks bullish signaling.
  • Weekly pivot point is $9259.78 – a similar scenario like the last week. Sorry to say it but seems like we`ll end this week below it which can lead to another negative week next week, and remember that almost In the middle of it will be the end of the month.
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
  • 2nd support - $7800
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $9500-9800
  • 2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
A Bloomberg view. (chart 2)
According to Bloomberg, the narrowest ever bollinger bands suggest that Bitcoin is consolidating for a major breakout. In their opinion, Bitcoin is priming to break out of the upper resistance level of $13,000. At the same time, he says that it is critical that price does not fall below $6,500. For more perspective check their chart.

That`s all for now and let`s hope for a better end of the month than the actual one.
See ya next time.
 
 
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