Binary betting - FTSE / Dow

jitasb

Active member
116 3
Okay chief....

So do you still trade binaries or not ???

Still reckon they could show some common sense....if I had placed an enormous trade (e.g . £100/point) and snagged profit of £5k ish...then fair enough I suppose....but for a measly £100 quid or so...must be a drop in ocean to them....

Not sure about betfair...you sound too clever for me....I could end up in the poor house :)
 

Scripophilist

Active member
221 7
The interesting thing about binaries is that on IG or Betfair they are remarkably close to the actual probabilities. I've done lots of research on this and know the odds and markets inside out. What offen happens though is that the markets skew towards the current trend, whether or not the probability has changed so I tend to make money from nipping in at those points.

The thing that will kill you with this type of market is that around 0-5% of the time the market will move suddenly against you and you can lose a lot of money. So you have to know your payoff against reality or you will always lose in the long term.
 

adrianallen99

Established member
630 4
They now do hourly binary bets on the FTSE, these could be interesting, anyone had a go of these??
 

riwf

Member
87 2
adrianallen99

I've tried one bet and won. Best time to try them is when the market is steaming high or low - go in around the half-hour and see how far they've moved since the top of the hour and decide whether it's likely that the market is going to come back in the time left. Trouble is, the odds offered mirror the probability very well - you'd have to lay out on seventy-eighty points to stand a chance of making a profit. I think they'll be very popular with the 'leisure' gamblers igindex are trying to attract, but they'll always be high risk,

Good luck
RIWF
 

riwf

Member
87 2
adrianallen99

That means there is only one chance in ten that its going to go from up to down, or from down to up, in the time left, and nine chances in ten that it wont. All things being equal, I'd go for the 9/10 - but the trouble with the hourly binaries is that anything can happen in thirty minutes, so you're right to be cautious about playing the high odds.

One strategy you could try is to buy when the lower price is below - say - fifteen with more than half the session to go. If a reversal starts, your price will start to rise (remembering that it will have dropped two or three points as soon as you bought so ig could take their cut). Once it's above your buying price, you're in profit. Set yourself a selling price before you start - say, twenty-five percent above what you paid - and stick to it come what may. Over time, you might make a steady profit. If, on the other hand, more often than not your price doesn't rise enough to give you a profit, consider biting the bullet and playing the high odds - at least you'll have evidence of their veracity.

Good luck.
 

jklondon

Active member
212 2
mmm...given up with BB - i.e. getting out while im still ahead. To distracting from Trading. Although - have a betfair account for a bit of fun, can get some tasty odd on their!

Let me know if anyones interested in opening an a/c and you can get £20 if you deposit £20 and make 1 bet!
 

Robertral

Well-known member
446 4
Not sure if this will help...haven't got time to read all the posts...

A digital (binary) can be replicated by buying a call at strike X1 and selling a call a X2, where X2>X1...the actual strike of the digital will be 0.5(X2-X1)...i.e this is a tight bull spread

The actual payout will be X2-X1 for S>X2 and 0 for S<X1
 
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riwf

Member
87 2
JITASH, re your post of 19-11-2003.

Your strategy on the Dow is sound. In the last couple of months, American traders seem compelled to respond to any positive economic news by piling into equities. The surge seems to happen most often in mid-afternoon - their time - and then falls back. There have been a lot of opportunities to make money using the strategy you describe. I hope, though, that you give consideration to selling when the low-range bet you bought has at least doubled in value, as the market falls back, and don't simply wait in the hope that it will reach your range before closing. As I see it, turning a profit consistently is more satisfying than 'winning' the bet.

Also, think about this strategy - when the DJ price has risen quickly to the 70/80 level you'll get a good price on the High Ranges for Wall St to finish up <100pts (or down) - and an even better price, of course, if the market has already risen above 100pts. If you're confident that the market will finish below100pts, then place a bet here. Over time, it will give you a better return than buying the 0-20 range and hoping that the market falls back far enough to give you a winning hit. This strategy, of course, works in the opposite direction, in a falling market.

Good luck
 
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Bernard

Newbie
2 0
Does anyone know of another financial betting site similar to Binarybet (not spread or betting exchanges) where one can bet at fixed odds on the Daily FTSE being up or down on the day?
Any help would be appreciated,
Bernard.
 

Robertral

Well-known member
446 4
Bernard said:
Does anyone know of another financial betting site similar to Binarybet (not spread or betting exchanges) where one can bet at fixed odds on the Daily FTSE being up or down on the day?
Any help would be appreciated,
Bernard.

try ladbrokes.com it has a pretty neat platform
 
 
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